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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

    25-27c is where we need to be now. Not south of 20c.

    Bear in mind the average in London for July is around 24C, you may wish to moderate your expectations! High teens is around average for mush of the country in early June

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    This cut off low gona cause a few headaches!!i can imagine one run looking settled and then the next not as much!volatility will be high over the next couple of days i reckon!

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    12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    This cut off low gona cause a few headaches!!i can imagine one run looking settled and then the next not as much!volatility will be high over the next couple of days i reckon!

    And these things tend to come down to the last minute smh

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Forget the bigger picture for a minute and look 👀 at Bank Holiday Monday according to the Gfs 6z op.....not bad huh..low to mid 20’s c..when you consider that the Gfs underestimates maxima by a few degrees! 😉 ☀️ ..most of May has been crap..end of!...but this looks good!..indeed the weekend looks good..and it’s nationwide..what a bonus! 😉 😯...just remember that most of May we have been struggling in the pathetic low to occasionally mid teens Celsius, and for some, not even that!...pfft!!! 🙃..enjoy😸
    B01413CD-0671-44C9-9C65-693F781D3D2E.thumb.png.6e2aa17dfc818546c96f268e689e8ea9.png41E841EA-38BD-4A57-80F8-DFF424FC6C72.thumb.png.c502c20d0a382f481eac7dabd48ac40f.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex
    Posted (edited)
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    This cut off low gona cause a few headaches!!i can imagine one run looking settled and then the next not as much!volatility will be high over the next couple of days i reckon!

    With regards this type of low, does any one particular model handle this type of set up better than others historically? I. E. More accurate? 

    Edited by Roadrunner
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Often with the sort of setup being shown for next week I find that the trough eventually ends up further west as we get closer to the time or is even dropped completely.

    The models usually overdo these features when there is high pressure to the east- particularly the GFS. Don't forget a few runs showed a cut off low moving across us for Sunday only a couple of days back.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    14 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

    With regards this type of low, does any one particular model handle this type of set up better than others historically? I. E. More accurate? 

    Well from viewing the models over the last 20 or so years in my opinion ecm handles these lows a bit better in the end more often than not!!!!although its not to say ecm has a 100 percent record lol!!every model has a bad stretch including the mighty ecm so gfs could still be correct!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    Thanks both for the replies. Have got a few days golf coming up in Bournemouth 4th - 6th which has been 5 months in the planning through the dark days of lockdown. I can handle cooler, or even hotter! Just don't want it to be a washout - that would be so disappointing. FWIW it doesn't look too bad at the moment but if that low could just do one I'd be much happier! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    18 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

    Thanks both for the replies. Have got a few days golf coming up in Bournemouth....

    Doesn’t Alderc live in Bournemouth?... 😯..anyway...Golf is ok in all weathers (apart from deep snow 😉)..see you at the 19 th hole! 😉... 🍻 being serious though, the weather is about to become a whole lot better according to the mods..I mean models! Enjoy..at last, summery weather..before summer..is that a hole in one?..probably not..par 3 though?..maybe..lol... 🏌️♂️ ! 😯 😸

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    Friday 28 May 2021

    Another look at the anomaly charts

    Ec again shows the trough but this time a bit further w than the Wed one showed, the slight ridging showing on the Wed output, ne of Scandinavia, still just about there. Perhaps the most noticeable feature is the decrease in contour flow across the UK, especially in the south, with quite marked troughing w’ern France and Iberia, possibly suggesting a sly flow into the UK, instability?

    NOAA today has organised the +ve signal again into two areas, one not dissimilar to ec ne of Scandinavia the other again, the other off ne Russia. It has also introduced an extension of the trough out of w Greenland se towards Iberia, not there previously. The two items, ridge/trough, need to stay there for 48 hours to give a better guide. But, along with what ec shows, may already be suggesting a more sly flow into the UK for the 6-10 day period. Some suggestion on the 8-14 of both these could be true. I’ll wait 48 hours for confirmation or otherwise.

    Just seen the posts above, so yes mushy I’m almost always a touch cautious for the first 6-10 chart showing a difference from its previous run.

    I don’t disagree with your post or that of mb. The probability is there, say 40% at the moment for an extension of warmth beyond BH Monday, probably not as settled as the next 3-4 days could well be though?

     

     

    Hi John...

    As i see it, im expecting some sort of breakdown later next week, possibly plume, possibly thundery, beyond that as i read it, high pressure re-establishes close by just to our east. So a "plume sandwich" , with a lot of pretty fine summers weather outside the plume/unsettled snap.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Just before the 12z rolls out, I should mention that the GEFS 6z mean indicates a preety blocked outlook with predominantly fine and warm weather but there’s also scope for  plume potential which would mean very warm and humid with a chance of T-Storms...wow..positive riches following such a dismally cool / cold spring innit..and it’s not just the 6z mean either..hmmmm?! 😉  🤔 🐿 

    17FF4EBC-85F5-4E1C-BA40-5E83A84C02A2.thumb.png.60247d5ad76419b408ca6947bace3509.png7C78B862-5DB1-4D9E-A30C-D2B85B4D7C6B.thumb.png.372377f6980945692339175a961ef4a1.pngC2AEFAC9-47A8-4061-8918-3979945ACE74.thumb.png.31538f4ae7503e40c67ab8e8ca3ea722.png92E17A83-5352-48F8-A640-CECD6E41D3DB.thumb.png.24783f452c3ce910e97ecb2f76594af9.png692F11D2-F761-431B-AB02-3F531EFDC541.thumb.png.3cc79a1641e8f578653903bfa7882aa1.png56A20006-654E-403F-99F5-9A4D8117D171.thumb.png.4157932637a3e449a1dc7eb52923cab4.pngF4100749-BAA9-434A-8F29-7F28479F1DFB.thumb.png.c52994bd819fa766dda9e75eb5acd994.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Forget the bigger picture for a minute and look 👀 at Bank Holiday Monday according to the Gfs 6z op.....not bad huh..low to mid 20’s c..when you consider that the Gfs underestimates maxima by a few degrees! 😉 ☀️ ..most of May has been crap..end of!...but this looks good!..indeed the weekend looks good..and it’s nationwide..what a bonus! 😉 😯...just remember that most of May we have been struggling in the pathetic low to occasionally mid teens Celsius, and for some, not even that!...pfft!!! 🙃..enjoy😸
    B01413CD-0671-44C9-9C65-693F781D3D2E.thumb.png.6e2aa17dfc818546c96f268e689e8ea9.png41E841EA-38BD-4A57-80F8-DFF424FC6C72.thumb.png.c502c20d0a382f481eac7dabd48ac40f.png

     

    BH may look good JS but today is a bit of a washout here again. Sitting in the van waiting once again for the rain to stop?

    Seems that the GFS prec chart for this afternoon is not all that wrong. 

    image.thumb.png.d212ee3e033615b8b5eb63e87bf6a186.png

    Seems this warm front more potent than was thought....

    Looking forward to some drier weather....🌞

     

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    BH may look good JS but today is a bit of a washout here again. Sitting in the van waiting once again for the rain to stop?

    Seems that the GFS prec chart for this afternoon is not all that wrong. 

    image.thumb.png.d212ee3e033615b8b5eb63e87bf6a186.png

    Looking forward to some drier weather....🌞

     

    Aye minus10 but at least the showers risk will diminish and then fizzle out completely as pressure continues to rise...at last, summery feeling weather is imminent, hang in there buddy! 😉 

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Further to what minus10 said, I sympathise!..I’ve done outdoor work, I’ve been a grass cutter for the council!..I’ve got pished wet through, with sweat too!! 😓 ...I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe.. I’ve seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion..etc..etc.. 😉..but seriously, the GEFS 6z shows some really summery potential..and it’s not as if it’s only the GEFS 6z is it????...we’ve turned the corner..there’s good signs ahead of us! 😉 ☀️
    1917BE9B-946B-47C4-8F60-EB65BD711D6C.thumb.png.84cdc928f709c9f2c9d2ab7e75e9a942.pngA972DE91-BCA3-405E-B334-41A7FAD01BC2.thumb.png.84ce948573b92857fc2aa27491bd20c4.png8A0B1FA2-236E-4DDD-A0C1-C218C74CEBD7.thumb.png.0702a4168afa07c748fc267519813948.png9F3A895D-2237-42E4-ACAF-1E9353E4DB47.thumb.png.f0168699c0faf619cb4c9605f9532ab6.png93ECF33B-B9D9-4A91-86F7-35D5138B57EC.thumb.png.24d730c0e3c5e225d23ce4b039ffb04c.png6E9F8285-E3EE-4CA8-8255-387C673D19A8.thumb.png.9de0d47db21278a33dd0eef046bca048.pngF3733B90-DCAB-4BA8-85A7-81F0A4D2EC96.thumb.png.c0c91c3dafce68b03e29f9db8873b5bb.png52798C5E-EF36-4107-AA59-248AEAD01656.thumb.png.9be56da04725a3fe69ceda5c7e6d4930.png88099599-B6C0-4620-8517-74FE0116B578.thumb.png.0f7177272feaecfef0098e38dddfacca.pngF895C48C-1B70-448B-90B2-202EE16545A7.thumb.jpeg.6cf96bc14296e4c9763632649938422f.jpeg 

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Further to what minus10 said, I sympathise!..I’ve done outdoor work, I’ve been a grass cutter for the council!..I’ve got pished wet through, with sweat too!! 😓 ...I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe.. I’ve seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion..etc..etc.. 😉..but seriously, the GEFS 6z shows some really summery potential..and it’s not as if it’s only the GEFS 6z is it????...we’ve turned the corner..there’s good signs ahead of us! 😉 ☀️
    1917BE9B-946B-47C4-8F60-EB65BD711D6C.thumb.png.84cdc928f709c9f2c9d2ab7e75e9a942.pngA972DE91-BCA3-405E-B334-41A7FAD01BC2.thumb.png.84ce948573b92857fc2aa27491bd20c4.png8A0B1FA2-236E-4DDD-A0C1-C218C74CEBD7.thumb.png.0702a4168afa07c748fc267519813948.png9F3A895D-2237-42E4-ACAF-1E9353E4DB47.thumb.png.f0168699c0faf619cb4c9605f9532ab6.png93ECF33B-B9D9-4A91-86F7-35D5138B57EC.thumb.png.24d730c0e3c5e225d23ce4b039ffb04c.png6E9F8285-E3EE-4CA8-8255-387C673D19A8.thumb.png.9de0d47db21278a33dd0eef046bca048.pngF3733B90-DCAB-4BA8-85A7-81F0A4D2EC96.thumb.png.c0c91c3dafce68b03e29f9db8873b5bb.png52798C5E-EF36-4107-AA59-248AEAD01656.thumb.png.9be56da04725a3fe69ceda5c7e6d4930.png88099599-B6C0-4620-8517-74FE0116B578.thumb.png.0f7177272feaecfef0098e38dddfacca.pngF895C48C-1B70-448B-90B2-202EE16545A7.thumb.jpeg.6cf96bc14296e4c9763632649938422f.jpeg 

     

    Liking this positivity 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    10 minutes ago, Howie said:

    GFS bringing the trough up as early as Wednesday and turning very wet. Hope it's not right 

    It starts to lift out by Friday on the UKMO a little slower on the GFS but looks likely high pressure will build in again over the weekend after. To be honest if we have a couple of days of pain to help get a better pattern in place then I'm not complaining. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

    It starts to lift out by Friday on the UKMO a little slower on the GFS but looks likely high pressure will build in again over the weekend after. To be honest if we have a couple of days of pain to help get a better pattern in place then I'm not complaining. 

    Yes, completely with you on that.  GFS gets a really decent summer pattern by T192 as you can see:

    animhrl2.gif

    Ridge from the Azores with pieces breaking off is ideal.  Could lead to a decent rinse and repeat pattern in June.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Another model twist then! Most going for quite an aggressive breakdown by Wednesday now. What happens after is open to question....lots to be decided!

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    Posted (edited)

     

    13 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

    It starts to lift out by Friday on the UKMO a little slower on the GFS but looks likely high pressure will build in again over the weekend after. To be honest if we have a couple of days of pain to help get a better pattern in place then I'm not complaining. 

    You're right tbh, just having flashbacks of May 😭

    Edited by Howie
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z not looking three bad at Day 10. As @Mike Poole said above: we could be heading for a splendidly spiffing summer pattern?👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    On the other hand, it could all go pear-shaped. 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Looking further into June the GEFS 12z mean still looks ridgy and there are some really nice perturbations, however, I won’t pretend that there isn’t some cack, because there is!..but I think you will find that was the case even in past summers..there will always be at least some cack! 😉 😯 🐿  🧻  💩 

    3099A070-0F38-4437-A80E-C87B1EA6D3E1.thumb.png.98b24a7f49a7bd9a7591851fa8b4611c.png95D5F4F4-1DEB-4410-8DC8-6ACF549AFC43.thumb.png.170947ec1293a30d7190568dda0828a4.pngD9102C82-1E8E-4214-A47E-3DD2A800ADE9.thumb.png.b0f3f80d9d8c5d9836697105de4d015a.pngD34DCDF9-D1FB-4C2A-9A73-50FE51927657.thumb.png.1dd510b9ad6ead7b8800eac3c19367ec.png63966F64-421E-4E31-B9E6-D3C72E1590BA.thumb.jpeg.138bea2eaefb78932fc573273aee2640.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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