Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Frosty.]

38 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

First out the block, ICON 12z and its very warm and dry throughout.

It looks BLOCKED for sure!..not so warm near the east coast though..I do love Germany though, they make great cars Ja Ja Ja das ist gut..das wetter..not so gut?!  

Edited May 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+120: I like it! I like it!            

 

[Howie]

The GFS keeps sending a low up towards us around Thursday next week and very consistent with it. A lot of rain with it as well

[sheikhy]

Gfs a big improvement early on!!im just really surprised no one has mentioned ukmo12z!!absolutely fantastic till the end and looks a copy of 00z ecm!!

[eastangliawx]

1 minute ago, Howie said:

The GFS keeps sending a low up towards us around Thursday next week and very consistent with it. A lot of rain with it as well

Its an improvement atleast and still away off 

12z v 6z

[Howie]

1 minute ago, samwx said:

Its an improvement atleast and still away off 

12z v 6z

Definitely, hopefully it backs off that idea and pushes the trough further south west

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

The GFS keeps sending a low up towards us around Thursday next week and very consistent with it. A lot of rain with it as well

I’d be surprised it it turned out like that. This low hasn’t even formed yet. If it was a standard Atlantic low then I’d have more confidence in the modelling.

i also wouldn’t worry about precipitation forecasts - I’d expect it to be showery rather than widespread, heavy rain.

[eastangliawx]

But biggest upgrade of the day goes to the GEM! 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be surprised it it turned out like that. This low hasn’t even formed yet. If it was a standard Atlantic low then I’d have more confidence in the modelling.

i also wouldn’t worry about precipitation forecasts - I’d expect it to be showery rather than widespread, heavy rain.

Very true, I think I'm just having ptsd of the last month we've had

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, samwx said:

But biggest upgrade of the day goes to the GEM! 

Wow it sends us into heatwave territory and all across the UK and Ireland too

[PiscesStar]

9 minutes ago, Howie said:

Wow it sends us into heatwave territory and all across the UK and Ireland too

Lay off will ya  

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

Lay off will ya  

Getting a bit giddy

[sheikhy]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d be surprised it it turned out like that. This low hasn’t even formed yet. If it was a standard Atlantic low then I’d have more confidence in the modelling.

i also wouldn’t worry about precipitation forecasts - I’d expect it to be showery rather than widespread, heavy rain.

Also gfs struggle with cut off lows more often than not!!!not to say gfs is wrong cos it could be correct this time but i will go with the ecm ukmo and gfs for now!they normally handle these little buggers west of biscay slightly better!!

Edited May 27, 2021 by sheikhy

[Frosty.]

There’s some really good stuff in the GEFS 12z ...I’m very positive about early summer producing some really summery weather, be it dry, warm / very warm and sunny or hot, humid & thundery...probably both?! ⛈

 ? 

 

Ps..have I shown enough charts?  

Edited May 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Weather-history]

Solar eclipse day

 

[sheikhy]

Really need ecm to back the ukmo and continue on from its 00z run!!!

[Iceman2606]

GFS 12z going very warm for next week especially on Tue & Wed with temps reaching the mid to possibly high twenties!

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

GFS 12z going very warm for next week especially on Tue & Wed with temps reaching the mid to possibly high twenties!

Nearer low 20’s c although the Gfs tends to underestimate maxima? so mid 20’s c for favoured spots..anyway, beats low to mid teens c which has been the crap diet for much of May!  

 

 

[Man With Beard]

If we get to this position

there could be fun and games. The trough to the SW looks likely to get cut off as the high ridges over the top. Could trap a S'ly feed for the UK but enough instability to see a thunderstorm risk. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

For what its worth, ECM 12z has 14'c 850hPa temperatures skirting Kent at T216. Cracking run throughout.

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

If we get to this position

there could be fun and games. The trough to the SW looks likely to get cut off as the high ridges over the top. Could trap a S'ly feed for the UK but enough instability to see a thunderstorm risk. 

Ah yes, that's what I was hoping for 

Heat, thunder + groundhog day

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[sheikhy]

Fantastic ecm 12z!!!!more like ukmo than gfs and very warm throughout the run!!!

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles are nae bad:     

I'm sure glad I learned to ignore the 2m temp. forecasts!

[Frosty.]

Words fail me!... ..some of you will be pleased about that! ...just to add though, this shows great continuity from the ECM 0z op!...roll on summer!.. 564 dam, plumes, hot sun, that wonderful calm before the thunderstorm..those lazy hazy crazy days of summer, mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun..ok that’s enough frosty..I thought you said words fail you!!..jeez... ⛈ ? ? 

is that enough charts?...I like feedback  

Please tell me if I need to curb my enthusiasm?  

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Will be interesting to see if we get the first plume of the summer 

Spain and Portugal will be burning through the weekend mid - high 30s pushing 40C not sure of the May temperature records but