Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hell Mb.

A very interesting chart. If it did come off what temperature would we expect to experience here in the southeast?

30C and maybe slightly higher locally.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

30C and maybe slightly higher locally.

image.thumb.png.c7a1a6f367262bd4437751339960b820.pngimage.thumb.png.8915525c3263f349b191d08a36a85756.png

Think we can deduce from the mean that the Op was a huuuuuuuuuuge outlier!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.c7a1a6f367262bd4437751339960b820.pngimage.thumb.png.8915525c3263f349b191d08a36a85756.png

Think we can deduce from the mean that the Op was a huuuuuuuuuuge outlier!

Thats actually a pretty fantastic mean!!didnt expect it to be that good lol!!looks like we could have a good couple of weeks of summer weather finally!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.93af7de41a20caef84f5c0c002a410dd.png

Here's the ECM ensemble  Off the scale, but the mean is now at 9c. It's going to be very warm regardless.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Things on this morning's GEFS ensembles may be a tad more realistic than some of the recent output; nothing scorching but nothing untoward, either, with mean T850s still around 7C:

 

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Realistic or not (I hope not!) it's still better than the recent crud!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Things on this morning's GEFS ensembles may be a tad more realistic than some of the recent output; nothing scorching but nothing untoward, either, with mean T850s still around 7C:

 

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Realistic or not (I hope not!) it's still better than the recent crud!

Really looking forward to something warmer.. Really fed up of this gloomy, chilly weather and I can finally stop wearing a coat in the mornings.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
13 hours ago, kold weather said:

Given how rough the last few months have been, even a modestly warm UK high will feel like paradise weather wise and as we've seen in previous summers, it can setup a good groundwork for some more interesting stuff down the line...

Yes indeed. The last two days of sun already felt glorious and summery and we've barely started on this spell yet...

Looks like a good week coming up and plenty of promise beyond.

NOAA anomalies also pretty much matching the current output. Perhaps some kind of low hanging just West for a while at 6-10 days, but the second week looking like HP dominant across a wide area.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS at Day 5 is looking rather spiffing: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png  ??

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.9a28fb4b579ad2d210373b64db769fd0.pngimage.thumb.png.8b79e1a4c3cd8c7ef5ee44793377852b.png

2 main clusters today - the slightly bigger 60% cluster is like the OP run and warmer/more settled. The 40% cluster pushes the Atlantic a bit closer and sweeps the very warm air away into the continent.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Well i wouldnt worry too much about the GFS, id suggest the current NOAA 500 mb mean for days 6-10 are far closer to supporting the current ECMs prediction for later next week (ecm friday shown)

Not an exact match , but close enough to suggest considerable support. The ECM closer to the solution?

 

evidence.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well i wouldnt worry too much about the GFS, id suggest the current NOAA 500 mb mean for days 6-10 are far closer to supporting the current ECMs prediction for later next week (ecm friday shown)

Not an exact match , but close enough to suggest considerable support. The ECM closer to the solution?

 

evidence.jpg

The 500 mb EC anomaly chart issued this morning

image.thumb.png.9d3118fe4f83a5144046a6ea828f7786.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'm nae worried by the GFS, as I 'smear' all the runs together, in my head; and 'warm' air seems to be almost everywhere!

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS 06Z Ops was again quite aggressive in getting the Atlantic involved through the middle of next week, well over half of the ensembles still have 850's above 8C across the south by next Thursday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As others have alluded the GFS win in extending to at least Wednesday was impressive in the context of GEM support for the Euro solution.

As alluded to the models today largely agree out to day 6 as the high retreats east but differ afterwards in the strength of the Atlantic push.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS ( and likely all the models?) struggling with that trough: t850Bedfordshire.png                                             t2mBedfordshire.png

Oops, no idea what's happened there!

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.9a28fb4b579ad2d210373b64db769fd0.pngimage.thumb.png.8b79e1a4c3cd8c7ef5ee44793377852b.png

2 main clusters today - the slightly bigger 60% cluster is like the OP run and warmer/more settled. The 40% cluster pushes the Atlantic a bit closer and sweeps the very warm air away into the continent.

Nice to see one of the classic heatwave signals on cluster 1: trough anomaly SW, ridge anomaly east, straight lines from the southernmost part of the chart up to the UK.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GFS ( and likely all the models?) struggling with that trough: t850Bedfordshire.png                                             t2mBedfordshire.png

Oops, no idea what's happened there!

Wow Ed, we’ve been struggling with troughs all May..let’s just enjoy the high and warmth directly in front of us and hope that virtual computer generated June trough which doesn’t currently exist..goes away!  

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

In my best Cilla Black accent I gorra say that’s an impressive ECM 0z ensemble mean, for sure there’s some plume potential in there!...Wotta lorra laffs we will have if early summer blossoms into something great! ☀️  

3FAD42F5-841A-4B77-85E1-E1320E13F03A.thumb.gif.c5717d6be0e1888554b1cd2001142533.gifFEACD3F2-41FA-4800-96F4-CF2D16758668.thumb.gif.52efaeaabec5882065e22fcc47ab041d.gif8B642B70-1851-4513-9078-D8C28C3BEB39.thumb.gif.a49490d339312d8aa61513a41cbc2df5.gif12D31C7C-C9A3-4FDE-8E41-7C16C141BC8E.thumb.gif.cb4307005e475ff3af19940cf93fac0e.gif8B7CB6C4-8668-41A5-A1A4-4D43E4229C80.thumb.gif.e0b12cf8a3c456d189df38f0412b4e91.gif737B5646-6E62-4504-B715-DB1F6C972A54.thumb.gif.f3204f894c25da1fb20b9ad4059db57d.gif330DB6B0-5F78-48BE-A561-D3E7D0D3B0D3.thumb.jpeg.c3dea2f50ec01c689579545bbc106dee.jpegam I havin a laff?  

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, Jon Snow said:

In my best Cilla Black accent I gorra say that’s an impressive ECM 0z ensemble mean, for sure there’s some plume potential in there!...Wotta lorra laughs we will have if early summer blossoms into something great! ☀️  

3FAD42F5-841A-4B77-85E1-E1320E13F03A.thumb.gif.c5717d6be0e1888554b1cd2001142533.gifFEACD3F2-41FA-4800-96F4-CF2D16758668.thumb.gif.52efaeaabec5882065e22fcc47ab041d.gif8B642B70-1851-4513-9078-D8C28C3BEB39.thumb.gif.a49490d339312d8aa61513a41cbc2df5.gif12D31C7C-C9A3-4FDE-8E41-7C16C141BC8E.thumb.gif.cb4307005e475ff3af19940cf93fac0e.gif8B7CB6C4-8668-41A5-A1A4-4D43E4229C80.thumb.gif.e0b12cf8a3c456d189df38f0412b4e91.gif737B5646-6E62-4504-B715-DB1F6C972A54.thumb.gif.f3204f894c25da1fb20b9ad4059db57d.gif330DB6B0-5F78-48BE-A561-D3E7D0D3B0D3.thumb.jpeg.c3dea2f50ec01c689579545bbc106dee.jpegam I havin a laff?  

 

That's a pretty incredible mean after what we've been through this May- who would have believed that was coming two weeks ago?

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, legritter said:

 think I'll pop the bbq on this evening for     yes you guessed it ,Sausage baps and belly of pork plus Stellas ,cheers gang .

 

That sounds fantastic..am I invited? ...you’re right by the way, there’s some fantastic weather just around the corner..compared to the trash we’ve seen in the last month or so...hope summer hits the ground running..and keeps running!..mostly great model output currently..ECM 0z ens mean is a stunner..I think we would be very unlucky not to see a plume event of some description..and that goes for the GEFS too?...just my opinion! ...I’ve had enough of the unseasonable cool crap now..I demand some warmth dammit!!!! ?  

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Jon Snow said:

That sounds fantastic..am I invited? ...you’re right by the way, there’s some fantastic weather just around the corner..compared to the trash we’ve seen in the last month or so...hope summer hits the ground running..and keeps running!..mostly great model output currently..ECM 0z ens mean is a stunner..I think we would be very unlucky not to see a plume event of some description..and that goes for the GEFS too?...just my opinion! ...I’ve had enough of the unseasonable cool crap now..I demand some warmth dammit!!!! ?  

Me too! It's as bad as were the late Mays of 1975, 1983, 1996 and 2013!:drunk-emoji:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z mean / perturbations.....there’s some very good potential in early summer.. ...stuff that ...before then there’s some great weather well inside the reliable timeframe too..fingers crossed for summer ..I so much enjoy posting more when I’ve had a few..so liberating!!!!    ? 

49E57112-23C5-421E-BC3A-406F8B19EE08.thumb.png.ffe83c1de518dc212180e88023d40c71.png04147458-3599-4BCC-BCE7-01B53FF306C8.thumb.png.35e89ecc133d07fb0c5d02e265ae45b4.png56A095D6-6150-421D-A33C-646586C79F22.thumb.png.291038887f7ad57af36c47bd2f421083.png031FE34D-2454-45BE-A14F-72E5EB33D614.thumb.png.f65d414422fc09b5ffb5cf28b3ed093a.png7F20C5B9-3367-418F-AA44-6DEA621875AA.thumb.png.9fddab695c137f6c4ded6b83192553a2.png845F085C-E40B-46EF-84B7-E0F58822152E.thumb.png.487a1d6e9e2d1ea19e626f54cc7bac57.pngB113D150-26A6-45B2-86E0-66800DAD76CB.thumb.png.ab3eb2243bccd19b541533bfbabeea2b.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...