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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM mean and spread T240:

    61C3646E-E9F5-42A9-9BA6-2AA86E9A7955.thumb.gif.e01074ab6b6b1845546e5ca914ab9c72.gifF57295AF-33EA-4262-81E3-01EFE60300C8.thumb.gif.2ffe1c8e7d2d3b22ad697cc578a502be.gif

    First point, UK under high pressure with high confidence given the spread.  Atlantic trough yes, but only a few realisations bring up a plume, well that’s my analysis of it anyway.  Any road, it portends much summery weather to be sure…

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    A nice warmer and predominantly more settled looking ECM 12z ensemble mean for the majority tonight...the Azores high / ridge soon becoming increasingly influential...let’s get this party started!!! 🎉 🎈 🎊 😉 ☀️ 🐿 😯 

    0110535A-4D93-4430-A187-A63108E57552.thumb.gif.ecf03819797db491357e3cf3952b1234.gifB6F8D1F8-0581-4FC1-9FC9-37C1A7C6BF0B.thumb.gif.f294ed54397d26939913d11be3a88d06.gifC7DD0356-E1E7-4BA5-A977-6ED17F38A820.thumb.gif.1287c14e73c4738e3214ba28327f576c.gif0E933A65-06A4-4CDF-9F73-CDEF4E81D31F.thumb.gif.75a894848106f1b16ab40aaf2471464d.gif

     

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The ec suite slowly drifting to the gfs/gem solution of an Atlantic trough pumping a possible plume 

    more swings likely though 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean and spread T240:

    61C3646E-E9F5-42A9-9BA6-2AA86E9A7955.thumb.gif.e01074ab6b6b1845546e5ca914ab9c72.gifF57295AF-33EA-4262-81E3-01EFE60300C8.thumb.gif.2ffe1c8e7d2d3b22ad697cc578a502be.gif

    First point, UK under high pressure with high confidence given the spread.  Atlantic trough yes, but only a few realisations bring up a plume, well that’s my analysis of it anyway.  

    Given how rough the last few months have been, even a modestly warm UK high will feel like paradise weather wise and as we've seen in previous summers, it can setup a good groundwork for some more interesting stuff down the line...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Things really starting to sort themselves out this evening.  ECM clusters T192-T240 illustrates:

    4415F502-2EBA-4DB4-94BA-52092FEBA9F1.thumb.png.6cb7dcbbdf6693e8c61da9c25faafce0.png

    The Atlantic trough, euro high in clusters 1 and 2 , cluster 3 is a bit messy.  Take that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    I'll post this in here, because it relates to the current divergence between models. I know it's from Those Who Cannot Be Named, but, IMO, it's central to what we are discussing?

    PS: I've been having quite a few probs with YouTube today!

    But anyway, the GEFS 12Z ensembles are more than okay:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png   image.thumb.png.17f3cb8e2c7425ebe35f4ac90abf2822.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    39 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Got the temperature chart for friday mate?!!

    GFS was 9 degrees at 3pm and wet for my location

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    GFS was 9 degrees at 3pm and wet for my location

    Yeh lets hope it looks better for friday on 18z!ecm dont look as bad for friday i think!!more like 16 degrees!

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    Big improvements in the weather starting from tomorrow and lasting well into the Bank Holiday Weekend with temps in the mid-teens to low twenties widely.📈 Looking good into next week also with GFS & UKMO keeping it very warm for many.☀

    UKMO.thumb.PNG.2daa2dda4d8c044ae6f2d592c3f3da8e.PNGGFS.thumb.PNG.68d1457bde3571a4fde0faf0b148e680.PNGECMWF.thumb.PNG.d1be8129c1e7cba75958aae2af15989b.PNGGEM.thumb.PNG.d4b5483a7eddda5a6dd39cb9f0ca5d61.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    A Gentle, kind weekend for many of us....after that into next week Ecm shows more settled conditions allbeit with some showers and Gfs shows it warming up significantly but with thundery rain, especially for the south.. !!!

    h850t850eu-35.png

    ecmt850.168-3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    4 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

    Quite amazing how badly certain models/outlooks have struggled with this upcoming warmth.

    ECM weekly issued on Monday night…slightly below average UK and Ireland wide.

    31/05 to 07/06.

    Yep flipped warm not impressed. GFS triumph again indeed they was all over the place few days ago but GFS has caught on first.

    392394776_14-kmEPSGlobalEurope2-mTemperatureAnom.thumb.gif.f29bb1bc16b48e2b0145ee498890b9cf.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    UKMO still looking very warm into the middle of next week on this mornings 00z run. Mid 20s likely:

    image.thumb.png.daa9a1a0a3c11e98886e7b573690a58b.pngimage.thumb.png.2468e1f422435dce5f478cbe2c0024ca.pngimage.thumb.png.524b1de73f76e60abf3acfb970af1590.pngimage.thumb.png.47ed4f325f01dec2fb5f30e3fc06e3a4.png

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    GEM also bringing the heat from Monday through to Wednesday:

    GEMOPUK00_111_5.pngGEMOPUK00_135_5.pngGEMOPUK00_159_5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, samwx said:

    Wow! Complete turn around from the ECM!

    ECMOPEU00_168_1 (1).png

    ECMOPEU00_168_2 (1).png

    ECMOPEU00_192_1 (4).png

    ECMOPEU00_192_2 (3).png

    ECM is ridiculous this morning. 

    image.thumb.png.921aeeb5101289d5c3cd6175f3b58af8.png

    850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ukmo very good and warm till the end if its run!!ecm completely flipped now fron a couple of days ago and now agrees with the extra amplitude to the east and is hot all the way till the end of the run!!!least said about gfs the better!although it aint that bad but i think its handling of cut off lows still hasnt improved!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 minute ago, Howie said:

    What the hell is the GFS playing at

    image.thumb.png.656cad72501627f2306b420d2c437529.png

    Little bit on the cool side after the next week, but not completely out of the question. Fine margins between this and a hot run like ECM!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    37 minutes ago, samwx said:

    Wow! Complete turn around from the ECM!

    ECMOPEU00_168_1 (1).png

    ECMOPEU00_168_2 (1).png

    ECMOPEU00_192_1 (4).png

    ECMOPEU00_192_2 (3).png

    This follows about 20% of runs from last night's ensemble set. Would threaten the 30C mark - what a shock that would be. Still, as others say, it's not the consensus, and expectations for now should remain a little below this bar.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I'm not panicking about the GFS this morning- remember the cut-off low it showed for this weekend on a couple of runs a few days back?

    Just the typical fluctuations from run to run.

    The ECM is spectacular this morning though. Could be a very memorable spell if anything like that comes off. An outlier no doubt but not totally out of the question.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    40 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM is ridiculous this morning. 

    image.thumb.png.921aeeb5101289d5c3cd6175f3b58af8.png

    850s up at 15c by Saturday. Going by the GFS ensemble and GEM output this morning, it's pretty clear the ECM OP is going to be off the scale for a hot outlier. As nice as it may look to summer fans like myself, got to be as unbiased as possible!
     

    Hell Mb.

    A very interesting chart. If it did come off what temperature would we expect to experience here in the southeast?

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