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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Whatever the details turn out to be, things could hardly be worse than they are now; and if the GFS is anywhere near right, there's nowt to suggest that the current dross will return? And, even though the anomalies indicate a trough down the western side of Blighty, things are still looking UP. That said, were they showing a trough down the North Sea, I'd be far more concerned!👍

    GFS 12Z at T+360:    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Posted (edited)

    In any case I don't see what is so wrong with questioning any chart at Day 10.

    If the anomalies were always that accurate so far out, we wouldn't need anything else.

    Edited by Scorcher
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 12z mean shows a pattern change in the next few days from trough domination to high pressure or at least ridging!..it’s amazing how often a change in season brings a change in the weather! 😉 ☀️...yes it’s the mean which means very broad brushstrokes but I like what I’m seeing..drier and warmer..baby steps into summer!!! 🙂 👶 

    22F82A35-6E5C-43E9-83B9-4F8D3AA64954.thumb.png.b4c36bf9b2488c64cc6d7fe943efbc33.pngFCE096B1-33FF-4103-8E19-6447CE71378E.thumb.png.9430706aa796765d0e20255bdfb19fea.pngEB8492CE-6B46-4F4B-89CC-61E2D598600D.thumb.png.8d75a23fdc8671cd2e638192e7f92066.png46279477-631D-4165-A430-5162F787CEEA.thumb.png.9c18c3c93c37035f73a53cbd9bb1d0d2.png044E5795-6DD2-425D-94B1-2038E6F10741.thumb.png.cf0160f280d8f882b9ba6a309510c482.png650B08E6-E8C3-4C5A-BE8C-17C60A9E3137.thumb.png.70adba0b2e90d95de4bc60a08e795ee8.png6A163FBB-D605-48BC-A41E-64B2BEEB1260.thumb.png.ddb11a1f5c143c8ba818feb7eae869f1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    In any case I don't see what is so wrong with questioning any chart at Day 10.

    If the anomalies were always that accurate so far out, we wouldn't need anything else.

    I have this big problem with the much vaunted anomaly charts, they are just a different presentation of the data we get to see through the ensembles, just averaged over a time window as well as over members.  So they don’t tell us anything new if you look at the ensembles properly.  The exception may be the NOAA one which I believe has human interpretation added (except at weekends).  

    I much prefer the clusters presentation of the ensembles, that at least gives succour to the idea (perish the thought) that the uncertainty at day 10 or so might mean that by then there are more than one quite distinct option on the table?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    GEM & UKMO vs GFS so far. But looking at the ensembles, GFS's are probably the best we've seen in weeks and weeks, while for GEM the Ops really nose dives away from the pack with its big trough idea. 

    1455321894_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n(18).thumb.jpeg.2b3d58d47c6a5ea878269fcf45acf629.jpeg

     

    1134957729_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n(1).thumb.jpeg.f91e435b1fafe520769eff9609654a80.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    Posted (edited)

    ECM slap bang in the middle between the GFS and UKMO/GEM. Stronger ridge at Day 5 akin to the GFS means that the Atlantic doesn't come flying through. Not as good as the GFS but we'd have to see where we'd go from there. 

    ECM1-144.gif

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)
    30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    GEM & UKMO vs GFS so far. But looking at the ensembles, GFS's are probably the best we've seen in weeks and weeks, while for GEM the Ops really nose dives away from the pack with its big trough idea. 

    1455321894_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n(18).thumb.jpeg.2b3d58d47c6a5ea878269fcf45acf629.jpeg

     

    1134957729_gem-bournemouth-gb-505n(1).thumb.jpeg.f91e435b1fafe520769eff9609654a80.jpeg

    Although you could say, and perhaps with more accuracy, that it's all the NWPMs v the 'actual weather'?🤔😁

    And here are the latest GEFS temperature ensembles: 

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM T216:

    21EE8DB3-4BD2-49ED-8B6B-C713E41F5C62.thumb.gif.ac59a05848492b16ea92e430fb2b76ee.gif

    Happy with this as to where it moves the jet stream.  Cut off low south west of Portugal will help too.  

    Edit: it did, T240:

    525CC6B1-4401-425D-BB31-1CADB9E09D2A.thumb.gif.2dfcb4f891b64d27633779c9edf36bda.gif

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    8E76E104-9FD4-4591-A3C0-DE5D717EBF40.thumb.png.c2c5539ea2e7bfd55bd0c1948685cc8b.png2BE36AD6-3AA8-42BD-90AF-CD2B885D4A7C.thumb.png.691ef91e43ab274a499a8a0fe0e2ce14.png

    GFS vs UKMO 144 charts

    Houston, we have a problem!

    Just seems incredible that we have such divergence between the ukmo and gfs at day 6!. Must represent the extremes of the various possibilities. Lot of uncertainty. ..

    ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Well..... A much better day 10 ECM 12z op than yesterday evening’s damp squib!!! 😉 ☀️...there’s plenty of high pressure on this run, just a very short-lived blip late on before the run ends on a higH note! 🎵 😉....I think our luck is changing?..at last! 😯 

    8AD92719-C989-4175-9F99-1B757F238A8E.thumb.png.9eefb9e270e3e0155991f19b8064a4ef.pngBC99560A-0CD9-491B-BD70-1EBBB2727797.thumb.jpeg.f8b134b2095b48291f49dc7d0ffb666e.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    44 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

    ECM slap bang in the middle between the GFS and UKMO/GEM. Stronger ridge at Day 5 akin to the GFS means that the Atlantic doesn't come flying through. Not as good as the GFS but we'd have to see where we'd go from there. 

    ECM1-144.gif

    to me that looks like a front over my area, not convinced of a dry Whit BH

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    to me that looks like a front over my area, not convinced of a dry Whit BH

    Hello my friend its been a long time!just a quick peek into the thread to see whats going on!Think we will be okay in the midlands!!Front looks to be over scotland buddy!around central scotland to the borders!!!.......

    Screenshot_20210525-203324_WhatsApp.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, knocker said:

    But it shouldn't be a case of either or. The anomalies, used correctly, that is using the guide lines as laid out by JH on numerous occasions , establishes the upper air frame work under which the det runs will be operating. so you have a pretty good idea what you should be looking for. The clusters, ens, etc, can then be used in conjunction with this on a run to run basis. And I have to say you are asking a lot of people, and I include myself in this, to look at the clusters every day over a five period and then formulate a coherent NH pattern over the five days, Just my two penny worth

    Yes, fair point @knocker we all have our own preferred graphical representations of the modelling, each to his or her own for sure!  My point was more about the anomalies suggesting one solution, when the clusters show often more than one quite different solution once you get to the day 10+ timeframe.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro and GEM tonight once again stand opposed in the short term maintaining their Monday breakdown and pushing the trough to at least day 8.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

    GFS stands apart throughout.

    In the long run and more relevant to the mid June period the WWB progression looks like coming to a halt which may indicate a poorer pattern to come.

    image.thumb.gif.b66053267e0bc35749725dcd64095f4f.gif

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Short term, strong agreement we are about to see a pattern change, as others have said, at last thr trough domination is ousted by ridge development, and consequently much drier sunnier and warmer weather on the cards, it will finally feel like May! Many could nudge into the 20s before the month is out, nothing special but will feel great compared to what we've had all month, indeed apart from the short blip late March, we've had no warmth at all so far this season.

    Divergence then appears by Bank Holiday Monday, UKMO keen on strengthening the atlantic trough pushing heights away and western parts would see rain, eastern parts still dry and warm. ECM showing some form of trough but weaker, GFS holds the atlantic at bay. Its still at the 6 day range, best give it a couple of days or so before can speculate with some certainty the likely theme as we enter June.

    The interplay between the atlantic trough and the azores high will be key - as it usually is during summer, which will gain the upper hand? The azores high has been notable by its absence preety much all year so far..

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    In any case I don't see what is so wrong with questioning any chart at Day 10.

    If the anomalies were always that accurate so far out, we wouldn't need anything else.

    Exactly.... you dont, only the nearest operational chart.

     

    And i didnt call YOU strange but your comment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    The Jet Stream is Playing Hells Game with the models, If I Snuff it out a drier bank holiday but changing again next week...😂😂😆😳

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I’m getting a sense of a return to normality from the models today?, following an abysmally cool May, temperatures will be returning to more like where they should be and there’s some fine spells to look forward to, especially further south as we see more in the way of high pressure / ridging with the lower heights to the northwest, a more typical pattern (seasonal)!!!...this doesn’t preclude something much better or much worse but looking at tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean, that is my opinion!...if anything, the GEFS mean looks even better (charts I posted earlier)...anyway, less crud and more in the way of decent weather would suit me just fine following this travesty of a spring, and in particular.. MAY!!! 😉 ☀️ 😸

    50593332-295E-4131-A116-BB390689331A.thumb.gif.bc513c49a4db523fe0afe8d8c6ffa944.gif61C3FB8F-A52F-4935-8610-8F67253BD739.thumb.gif.2dc01f630b2525b6d7ecc81568b18188.gif8AA9B2B3-ADEE-4BAF-AC85-CB993D1A8BDA.thumb.gif.29adec3c9c02fb8512dfe09eda7917b0.gif760D341B-4740-47BA-BB27-15E751C108F8.thumb.gif.57031cbf9ff6caac1207ada47809c989.gif935DCCD1-E744-43E0-BC43-F6C7D00D2606.thumb.gif.8d52112332e260bfecf1c6db4696651f.gifAB1B03E6-28BE-4067-BB71-AD028B6D21B7.thumb.jpeg.76b223ca6962075565826cd610dc98c9.jpeg

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    43 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Exactly.... you dont, only the nearest operational chart.

     

    And i didnt call YOU strange but your comment. 

    My comment wasn't strange though. At all. Day 10 is open to question...full stop. Alright we might have a direction of travel- fair enough, I can accept that.

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    Posted (edited)

    image.thumb.png.19a06687a5ebe5f7edb16c35a3d58294.png
     

    I must admit given the mid June doom and gloom on here and on Twitter I was surprised  to find that all the EPS clusters have some semblance of U.K. high pressure in the extended? And no ugly Greenland heights to speak of?

    Not exactly trough domination on the 8-14 dayer either 

    image.thumb.gif.0507f70300207fc064c1a3d91344b0ec.gif

    At op level, you can see the support for the above at day 10 via the ECM and GFS, despite very different routes getting there

    image.thumb.gif.dd7d75de18fc2aa7fdc55a150b78ed89.gif

    image.thumb.png.fac8d8e279f5c40fc2c41282c6518bfc.png

    Perhaps there’s a chance we could end up getting away with a reasonable early/mid June even if AAM does fall away as long as those mid Atlantic heights can stay away. As @Singularity has delineated elsewhere, you can still have U.K high pressure in June with low AAM, it’s just not the most likely outcome. Also thing you n eed to go some atmospherically to avoid the June monsoon singularity. However, Seen as we completely missed the settled May tradition then maybe there’s a chance we’ll miss the wet June one too!

    Edited by Uncertainy
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    image.thumb.png.19a06687a5ebe5f7edb16c35a3d58294.png
     

    I must admit given the mid June doom and gloom on here and on Twitter I was surprised  to find that all the EPS clusters have some semblance of U.K. high pressure in the extended? And no ugly Greenland heights to speak of?

    Not exactly trough domination on the 8-14 dayer either 

    image.thumb.gif.0507f70300207fc064c1a3d91344b0ec.gif

    At op level, you can see the support for the above at day 10 via the ECM and GFS, despite very different routes getting there

    image.thumb.gif.dd7d75de18fc2aa7fdc55a150b78ed89.gif

    image.thumb.png.fac8d8e279f5c40fc2c41282c6518bfc.png

    Perhaps there’s a chance we could end up getting away with a reasonable early/mid June even if AAM does fall away as long as those mid Atlantic heights can stay away. As @Singularity has delineated elsewhere, you can still have U.K high pressure in June with low AAM, it’s just not the most likely outcome. Also thing you n eed to go some atmospherically to avoid the June monsoon singularity. However, Seen as we completely missed the settled May tradition then maybe there’s a chance we’ll miss the wet June one too!

    The wide range of eps clusters options at day 10 doesn’t just disappear at day 11!

    Plenty of rainwater yet to flow under the bridge before we get some week 2 clarity 

     

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