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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Shame meteociel don’t offer ecm pressure ensembles now like they used to! Hard to compare just off 850 temps. The mean tonight looks way better than the op though. More runs needed...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    I'm not really bothered about the extended outlook the Weekend looks lovely ,very useable weather . ......Certainly going to make people feel much happier ,sunshine , warm days and light winds allbeit some cold nights and ground frost looks likely in some areas...!

     

    h850t850eu-34.png

    ecmt850.144-7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.gif.d2cc028b0cc7e0931cd7c54f7856b900.gif

    Doesnt look like the beloved NOAA anomalies to me!

    What a rancid day 10 chart. See what those ensembles say, I reckon this off the scale bad.

    image.thumb.png.7493b8f728e1bbb65eb0dc6606d48ce2.png

    I'd like to highlight something you said- day 10. I can almost guarantee that this won't happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    'Morning folks, today's GEF 00Z run isn't too bad. 🤔

    Day 5:     h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Day 10:   h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Day 15:   h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    So, once again, things are looking up!🌞

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    629FEA8C-7110-4A4F-953D-E1EF9DF5DE86.thumb.png.3eaffd30ea73f41d5b1534b9115fa612.pngEA114C56-16AB-4F49-99CA-4B9CC626240F.thumb.png.25a813de4f627b6d769b8157347a8f15.pngD4FC3F57-302B-42AA-A3F0-C55BD1867FBA.thumb.png.4c9e01c8dbd02c5bcb7bf14786a0d484.png
     

    Here we have GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8 in order of progression. ECM very keep to sweep everything away quickly, GFS has the high putting up more of a fight. Let battle commence!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.de124efcbc6023dae4a54eaa28b5087c.png

    Another progressive op run - not out of the envelope, but very close to it. Perhaps an aggressive breakdown in this form is slightly wide of the mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Looking in more detail this morning it looks like both the Euro and GEM agree on the initial breakdown (the pressure build being a fri-mon affair). The GEM is just less progressive afterwards.

    GFS in not having a Tuesday breakdown at all is on its own.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)

    Looking good for the first time this Spring these last few runs but still a while away yet. 

    gfs-0-120.thumb.png.ee9597e4406d57d141e0efd44353b6c5.png

    gfs-12-210.png

    gfs-12-192.png

    gfs-9-204.png

    gfs-5-252.png

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.bfe32d795a38db319adb2c58e921c20a.pngimage.thumb.png.7d504a1708362baf2d992938029e418b.pngimage.thumb.png.ea31b6439b8f36d401250d0eb29a3a9b.png

    ECM really wants to push that unsettled weather through!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    15 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    I'm not too concerned about where the ECM ends up.  It's a shallower depression than we've been used to during May, so at the very least it would be less windy and there could be more emphasis on sunshine and thundery showers.  The lows lurking out in the Atlantic don't look particularly potent either, so a plausible evolution could see the low over the UK fill, allowing high pressure to link up between the Azores and Scandinavia two or three days later.

    I also see plenty of "summery" weather on offer earlier in that ECMWF run anyway.  Indeed, the T+144 chart looks a lot like the UKMO, with high pressure firmly in control and also looking favourably placed to bring plenty of sunshine:

    image.thumb.png.73c9efd2392778eb190f718bd4dcdfe7.png

    Four or five days of fine weather and then a thundery breakdown, and no guarantee of the breakdown producing more than two or three days with rain or showers, would still be very different to the strongly North Atlantic-dominated weather that we've seen during this May.

    Yes I think this is right. That chart and others we've seen like it look much preferable to what we've had recently. Not as deep, warmer, better orientation. Reminds me of some of the weather last June, which I found quite pleasant - warm enough, sunshine and less frequent showers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    629FEA8C-7110-4A4F-953D-E1EF9DF5DE86.thumb.png.3eaffd30ea73f41d5b1534b9115fa612.pngEA114C56-16AB-4F49-99CA-4B9CC626240F.thumb.png.25a813de4f627b6d769b8157347a8f15.pngD4FC3F57-302B-42AA-A3F0-C55BD1867FBA.thumb.png.4c9e01c8dbd02c5bcb7bf14786a0d484.png
     

    Here we have GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8 in order of progression. ECM very keep to sweep everything away quickly, GFS has the high putting up more of a fight. Let battle commence!

    Yes, bit of a let down, that run.

    Hopefully will change back tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    Posted (edited)
    On 24/05/2021 at 20:02, Djdazzle said:

    That chart is so bad -

     What a strange comment...  The chart to which you refer WASNT bad, we were under light positive heights, gentle Westerly upper flow, that chart would produce a lot of fine but not totally settled weather.

    On 24/05/2021 at 20:49, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Agree with this, high pressure nearly always downgrades closer to the time

     Another strange comment, ive seen no evidence of this.
     

    Edited by Blessed Weather
    Misunderstanding of Scorcher post edited out.
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS6z submits to the GEM view of events in effect. Slow breakdown at the start of next week, troughing to our south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well certainly the promise of temps up to high teens and low 20s for 4 or 5 days will be a vast improvement on the absolute grot we’ve been subjected to for weeks now. Hopefully the amount of infill will be limited over the weekend as well as we desperately need some sun combined with some warmth. 
     

    While still a way out though it does look as it’s becoming increasingly likely that troughing will becoming established over the Uk, GFS 06z surface conditions become really poor again beyond day 9 or so, temps back down to low to mid teens for many, lots of showers and cloud too. Could easily settle in that pattern and take a while to shift as last June proved where renewed troughing took three weeks to shift. At least that spell came after weeks of temps in the 20-25c and 600hrs of sun in April & May. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    As was half-expected (judging by all the oddly hyperbolic posting) the GFS Operational has flipped to almost a cold outlier, in its later stages. But, given the degree of scatter, who knows what things'll be like, in 10-12 days' time!🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Even odder, that the Control has done the very opposite?👍

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    As was half-expected (judging by all the oddly hyperbolic posting) the GFS Operational has flipped to almost a cold outlier, in its later stages. But, given the degree of scatter, who knows what things'll be like, in 10-12 days' time!🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Even odder, that the Control has done the very opposite?👍

    Perhaps, but indicative of the very state of mind of the weather!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex
    42 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    As was half-expected (judging by all the oddly hyperbolic posting) the GFS Operational has flipped to almost a cold outlier, in its later stages. But, given the degree of scatter, who knows what things'll be like, in 10-12 days' time!🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Even odder, that the Control has done the very opposite?👍

    Control was always my favourite. 

    If Poch can come back home then the weather can stay settled - miracles can happen! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    8E76E104-9FD4-4591-A3C0-DE5D717EBF40.thumb.png.c2c5539ea2e7bfd55bd0c1948685cc8b.png2BE36AD6-3AA8-42BD-90AF-CD2B885D4A7C.thumb.png.691ef91e43ab274a499a8a0fe0e2ce14.png

    GFS vs UKMO 144 charts

    Houston, we have a problem!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    Just now, mb018538 said:

    8E76E104-9FD4-4591-A3C0-DE5D717EBF40.thumb.png.c2c5539ea2e7bfd55bd0c1948685cc8b.png2BE36AD6-3AA8-42BD-90AF-CD2B885D4A7C.thumb.png.691ef91e43ab274a499a8a0fe0e2ce14.png

    GFS vs UKMO 144 charts

    Houston, we have a problem!

    Probably still warm on both charts, but UKMO looks like a much faster breakdown. Kind of the weather to hold on for the Bank Holiday 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    8E76E104-9FD4-4591-A3C0-DE5D717EBF40.thumb.png.c2c5539ea2e7bfd55bd0c1948685cc8b.png2BE36AD6-3AA8-42BD-90AF-CD2B885D4A7C.thumb.png.691ef91e43ab274a499a8a0fe0e2ce14.png

    GFS vs UKMO 144 charts

    Houston, we have a problem!

    Looks like being at least 2days quicker than gfs
     

    but what’s the saying ‘never bet against the UKMO @144’? 
     

    Would be incredibly disappointing if that transpired, GFS looks a million times better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    Posted (edited)

    Temperature charts looking good but still quite far out.

     

    image.pngimage.thumb.png.1de2493729cc9417b317574fd238754c.pngimage.thumb.png.87b1a5b22cfe8bf43a502ac475ac460d.png

    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Just had a look at the GEFS 6z mean and it’s pretty decent compared to the current / recent dross, it warms up and becomes more settled...I think, at the very least / worst (ECM 0z ensemble mean) we could see a north / south split in early June with the south predominantly drier and warmer and the north a bit more unsettled and cooler? but it could turn out better than that?!..hopefully the 12z mean will be similar to the 6z mean!...we may have turned the corner now and put this dreadful May behind us!!!!? 😉 ☀️ 😯 🤞 

    405A8394-0EBA-49B0-903B-F44989E40BC8.thumb.png.2663277ab2c07ec809bd52c5c1e10e32.pngEA313B61-0915-4483-9813-FBB828D2DA1B.thumb.png.1478c6b8c660e8e509e06a96c93e43a4.png7A81B475-7184-4B9F-8A2C-30ECB0ABF47A.thumb.png.4cca8c2417802ffc828f5e2617eb0004.png5BB8C3E6-3A81-4937-9150-39C2D33A7898.thumb.png.4859ed57d8f13f144065f5a1f18df1be.pngAA6FA279-37EA-4EF8-BB97-D0FAF4E9FDA5.thumb.png.948ffd232ac9916c55c88cecf8f841ef.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Posted (edited)
    6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

     

    Yet another strange comment! Those NOAA charts are very accurate, even at day ten , id almost guarantee that the chart to which you refer WILL be there or thereabouts.

    Er excuse me Mushy, the post I quoted wasn't referring to the anomalies at all or anything you posted.

    It was a Day 10 ECM op chart- make sure your comment is accurate before calling me strange please.

    Edit- I've just looked back and I'm pretty sure the original post was edited after I quoted it. I wouldn't have made that comment about the anomaly chart.

    Edited by Scorcher
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