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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
4 hours ago, wellington boot said:

the good news is that 1987 looks like a decent summer from the charts, particularly in the South, and all the way through to October. Frequently HP dominated, plenty of sun and warmth. Occasional disruption from upper lows and intrusions from the Atlantic, as you would expect.

Just thought I would pick up on this, as looking back over the charts for summer 1987 I can see where this is coming from.  There was indeed a fair amount of high pressure close to the UK at times during that summer, but it was frequently in the "wrong" place, feeding in cool cloudy northerlies or moist westerlies.  In reality it was a notoriously dull cool wet summer overall, especially during June and from mid-July through to mid-August.  There was a fine spell for many starting at the very end of June and lasting until mid-July particularly in the south, and a thundery plume in late August, but that was pretty much it.

However, I'm seeing some parallels with 2013 in the current charts and the evolution of the year so far, which could get particularly interesting if they continue into July.  There's been a bit of a shift in the models since yesterday, placing high pressure further east, which reduces the chances of cool cloudy weather affecting the east of England via northerlies, but this morning's ECMWF run does kick the high pressure away rather more quickly.  It's worth pointing out that the latter stages of the ECMWF run would tend to translate to near-normal weather rather than a washout, with high pressure not far from the south.

The NOAA 8-14 day outlook is still indicating above average heights, it will be interesting to see if that changes today but I am still seeing indications that there will be a pattern change towards the beginning of June, albeit with uncertainty over exactly what that pattern change will be.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean looks jolly decent in the near future / mid future / longer future!! ...more ridgy / less troughy! ...some cracking perturbations too!...fingers crossed  ☀️ 

D01D6758-AB66-4B47-AAAF-01D4DE07CB11.thumb.png.d34396f325ba1fcb1ee3794572f16269.pngF0A2A557-B1B1-4EB0-BC42-6B0C146DE155.thumb.png.c1b9dfd47207d8ee9f77efc21c8d2dac.pngBAF29803-DCC0-44F6-A014-0A78CDA151F4.thumb.png.da9e566bc344fb79b09d265899f4cf7b.png82599173-898F-435D-A73B-27F218484CEB.thumb.png.5dde12a16412cac0749657b50925ff71.pngB679E59E-854A-4444-826C-51D79CDB945E.thumb.png.b07d5933f6d2f7f3fdd4f2ca2f5d8db4.pngED6F7963-6705-4319-A98A-5E460F352504.thumb.png.3f337753a0821db9b7fe8aff36b0ac43.png9C502FDB-67F7-4E25-B724-80F3894049E9.thumb.png.8f0ec75c8dcda6a6e1bd6625350f8471.png2CC01330-8C81-42C4-BCFB-92BD316D1DF5.thumb.png.0ee94294a596df921e7b2400b01c2516.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think we deserve P25 to help compensate  for all the pain suffered in this abysmally cool May!!

61F42F28-4CAD-4677-B279-1571B88A84E0.thumb.png.6720ee7c23b65cec9eacd796b67d3ae2.png9518BC1F-A2D2-4DA8-8FE0-F3B84683ECFC.thumb.png.09b60e8fa8f337b45bb654799ba5e1f9.pngC5C2424E-17FA-4CB4-A040-3D99FCBEF99E.thumb.png.26c55f26bc98264e40d90779227d46fe.png 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Just now, Jon Snow said:

I think we deserve P25 to compensate  for all the pain suffered in this abysmally cool May!!

61F42F28-4CAD-4677-B279-1571B88A84E0.thumb.png.6720ee7c23b65cec9eacd796b67d3ae2.png9518BC1F-A2D2-4DA8-8FE0-F3B84683ECFC.thumb.png.09b60e8fa8f337b45bb654799ba5e1f9.pngC5C2424E-17FA-4CB4-A040-3D99FCBEF99E.thumb.png.26c55f26bc98264e40d90779227d46fe.png 

 

Certainly a trend of better weather on the horizon.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.dc87ed8f4fa3c5c920a4607de1f55c80.png

Another very poor GEM run that descends into unsettled dross in a weeks time...

ECM and GEM not too far apart with the progression this evening. 

Means little though when there is so much divergence between the models in general.

ECM1-192.GIF?24-0

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Just thought I would pick up on this, as looking back over the charts for summer 1987 I can see where this is coming from.  There was indeed a fair amount of high pressure close to the UK at times during that summer, but it was frequently in the "wrong" place, feeding in cool cloudy northerlies or moist westerlies.  In reality it was a notoriously dull cool wet summer overall, especially during June and from mid-July through to mid-August.  There was a fine spell for many starting at the very end of June and lasting until mid-July particularly in the south, and a thundery plume in late August, but that was pretty much it.

However, I'm seeing some parallels with 2013 in the current charts and the evolution of the year so far, which could get particularly interesting if they continue into July.  There's been a bit of a shift in the models since yesterday, placing high pressure further east, which reduces the chances of cool cloudy weather affecting the east of England via northerlies, but this morning's ECMWF run does kick the high pressure away rather more quickly.  It's worth pointing out that the latter stages of the ECMWF run would tend to translate to near-normal weather rather than a washout, with high pressure not far from the south.

The NOAA 8-14 day outlook is still indicating above average heights, it will be interesting to see if that changes today but I am still seeing indications that there will be a pattern change towards the beginning of June, albeit with uncertainty over exactly what that pattern change will be.

 

Thanks for this. A good example of how charts don't always tell the story, especially when viewed at 3 day intervals in quick succession!

I realise I should have been more careful with my characterisation in any case, since there was nothing summery till the second half of June, which makes for a very late start.

Given that fine details can make all the difference regarding how HP or any synoptic arrangement is experienced on the ground, any correspondence between 1987 and 2021 is still not necessarily a bad thing, and we definitely do want high pressure close by through summer. But with that said, I take such comparisons with a pinch of salt, and there are some glaring differences in the starting conditions, such as Nino vs Nina.

And with that said, I shall go and glance at those 2013 charts...

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM and GEM not too far apart with the progression this evening. 

Means little though when there is so much divergence between the models in general.

ECM1-192.GIF?24-0

Couldn’t really make it up...a month to shake this trough away, we get high pressure for a few days and then we’re back stuck with a trough over us and high pressure either side. Weather gods laughing at us again!

image.thumb.png.4d5f5bdcc9439b51837a8cd7e398a4cb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Couldn’t really make it up...a month to shake this trough away, we get high pressure for a few days and then we’re back stuck with a trough over us and high pressure either side. Weather gods laughing at us again!

image.thumb.png.4d5f5bdcc9439b51837a8cd7e398a4cb.png

It has been advertised in the long rangers though for a while. HP out just to our W and a risk of a mean trough somewhere between Scandi and the UK. Although the pattern above seems even further W than that.

Still, the UKMO solution cannot be discounted yet.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Couldn’t really make it up...a month to shake this trough away, we get high pressure for a few days and then we’re back stuck with a trough over us and high pressure either side. Weather gods laughing at us again!

image.thumb.png.4d5f5bdcc9439b51837a8cd7e398a4cb.png

It doesn’t seem plausible. So many signals hinting at a pattern change and I think the odds of us being in the same situation are slim.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It has been advertised in the long rangers though for a while. HP out just to our W and a risk of a mean trough somewhere between Scandi and the UK. Although the pattern above seems even further W than that.

Still, the UKMO solution cannot be discounted yet.

image.thumb.gif.d2cc028b0cc7e0931cd7c54f7856b900.gif

Doesnt look like the beloved NOAA anomalies to me!

What a rancid day 10 chart. See what those ensembles say, I reckon this off the scale bad.

image.thumb.png.7493b8f728e1bbb65eb0dc6606d48ce2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 12z mean looks jolly decent in the near future / mid future / longer future!! ...more ridgy / less troughy! ...some cracking perturbations too!...fingers crossed  ☀️ 

D01D6758-AB66-4B47-AAAF-01D4DE07CB11.thumb.png.d34396f325ba1fcb1ee3794572f16269.pngF0A2A557-B1B1-4EB0-BC42-6B0C146DE155.thumb.png.c1b9dfd47207d8ee9f77efc21c8d2dac.pngBAF29803-DCC0-44F6-A014-0A78CDA151F4.thumb.png.da9e566bc344fb79b09d265899f4cf7b.png82599173-898F-435D-A73B-27F218484CEB.thumb.png.5dde12a16412cac0749657b50925ff71.pngB679E59E-854A-4444-826C-51D79CDB945E.thumb.png.b07d5933f6d2f7f3fdd4f2ca2f5d8db4.pngED6F7963-6705-4319-A98A-5E460F352504.thumb.png.3f337753a0821db9b7fe8aff36b0ac43.png9C502FDB-67F7-4E25-B724-80F3894049E9.thumb.png.8f0ec75c8dcda6a6e1bd6625350f8471.png2CC01330-8C81-42C4-BCFB-92BD316D1DF5.thumb.png.0ee94294a596df921e7b2400b01c2516.png

Let's hope it's at least close to the mark. But I can't help thinking Karl, you've had your fingers crossed for so long now they might well be stuck like that!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.gif.d2cc028b0cc7e0931cd7c54f7856b900.gif

Doesnt look like the beloved NOAA anomalies to me!

What a rancid day 10 chart. See what those ensembles say, I reckon this off the scale bad.

image.thumb.png.7493b8f728e1bbb65eb0dc6606d48ce2.png

That chart is so bad - the ECM has somehow contrived to produce the worst possible outcome. It’s like flipping a tail 6 times in a row; hence, highly unlikely to come true.

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ECM snatches defeat from the jaws of victory right at the end it’s run run a solid looking position at about t144hrs. I know some of the anomalies have had a trough near the uk into early June but to get such a pronounced one wedged between two stonking great highs would not only be dreadfully unlucky but a dreadful start to summer and a tricky pattern to budge quickly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Latest GEFS temp. ensembles look a tad 'odd' to me: the T850s look okay, but the 2m temperatures look decidedly less so:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Whatever, panicking at the very sight of a less-than-perfect run really is rather futile, IMO!

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Latest GEFS temp. ensembles look a tad 'odd' to me: the T850s look okay, but the 2m temperatures look decidedly less so:

t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

Whatever, panicking at the very sight of a less-than-perfect run really is rather futile, IMO!

The ECM solution, whereby a slithery low somehow gets trapped directly over the UK between two gigantic Azores and Scandinavian Highs is a work of pure fantasy. It won’t verify - and probably won’t even survive the next run!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

The ECM solution, whereby a slithery low somehow gets trapped directly over the UK between two gigantic Azores and Scandinavian Highs is a work of pure fantasy. It won’t verify - and probably won’t even survive the next run!

We've seen it in previous summers? It might not come off, but why are you so convinced it can't?

It's entirely feasible and any dismissal of that fact is just hopecasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I'm not too concerned about where the ECM ends up.  It's a shallower depression than we've been used to during May, so at the very least it would be less windy and there could be more emphasis on sunshine and thundery showers.  The lows lurking out in the Atlantic don't look particularly potent either, so a plausible evolution could see the low over the UK fill, allowing high pressure to link up between the Azores and Scandinavia two or three days later.

I also see plenty of "summery" weather on offer earlier in that ECMWF run anyway.  Indeed, the T+144 chart looks a lot like the UKMO, with high pressure firmly in control and also looking favourably placed to bring plenty of sunshine:

image.thumb.png.73c9efd2392778eb190f718bd4dcdfe7.png

Four or five days of fine weather and then a thundery breakdown, and no guarantee of the breakdown producing more than two or three days with rain or showers, would still be very different to the strongly North Atlantic-dominated weather that we've seen during this May.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
23 minutes ago, Downpour said:

The ECM solution, whereby a slithery low somehow gets trapped directly over the UK between two gigantic Azores and Scandinavian Highs is a work of pure fantasy. It won’t verify - and probably won’t even survive the next run!

I wouldnt worry about it. Looks like them highs could easily squeeze it away.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think we should focus on the good aspects of the ECM 12z operational rather than the bad and the ugly ending?..at last there’s some high pressure and warmth too!!..and when has day 10 ever verified??! .... ☀️...fingers crossed and thumbs up from me...we deserve good karma now with all my positivity..not that I think the world revolves around me!!! 

08983A45-E04D-44A7-A55B-1CC7A58D3294.thumb.png.1ec072953c44614be9f7125556cc97b8.pngEF180C5D-5F1B-437D-9B57-8ADD65180893.thumb.png.5404b080cda96592fb08c0fa631e5a87.pngACD13D84-2297-4383-9A53-9CB256C66065.thumb.png.3f5b35daf98353a822157397f389fce6.png44712BCB-08E7-4611-9B1F-B748FE1204B2.thumb.png.309cd8c3c594f4c21082311846b8d37a.png0789A6ED-A542-4987-82C4-88A89DE354BA.thumb.png.c28d0395fc0175434a39d1bf91fca506.png613A6922-42E1-415F-A721-0CCBB9977D41.thumb.png.d23ea367262ad040c488b81a28c7f0a3.png56944159-93DA-46F9-A038-6A78A52169FE.thumb.jpeg.c66399f16a4691e66efc6f876db934c2.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've seen it in previous summers? It might not come off, but why are you so convinced it can't?

It's entirely feasible and any dismissal of that fact is just hopecasting.

Feasible- yes.

Likely - no.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've seen it in previous summers? It might not come off, but why are you so convinced it can't?

It's entirely feasible and any dismissal of that fact is just hopecasting.

Agree with this, high pressure nearly always downgrades closer to the time (out of lockdown it seems), GEM going same way, half expect the GFS to start showing a wet holiday week

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
35 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've seen it in previous summers? It might not come off, but why are you so convinced it can't?

It's entirely feasible and any dismissal of that fact is just hopecasting.

A trapped low at 8-9 day range won’t verify. There might well be hopecasting going on, but it’s not coming from me. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with this, high pressure nearly always downgrades closer to the time (out of lockdown it seems), GEM going same way, half expect the GFS to start showing a wet holiday week

“high pressure nearly always downgrades closer to the time”

Does it? Evidence please? This chart is not showing high pressure - it’s showing a trapped low over the UK at Day 9. 
 

Do I think it will verify? Not a chance. 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
14 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

I wouldnt worry about it. Looks like them highs could easily squeeze it away.

Indeed, if the set up ends up anything like that the squeeze would be odds-on. But I doubt it will even get close.

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