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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 00Z looks okay:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                          h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                          h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the temp. ens:  t850Bedfordshire.png   t2mBedfordshire.png

    So, plenty of useable weather to come; but no suggestion of the heatwave no-one's been predicting!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.44c3a2d8b776c3100f7a1965a54f300d.png

    A slightly disappointing ECM op run today confirmed by it being a bit off key.

    I'm not liking the slide down to back below average on the ensemble as we head into June though! That line is heading in the wrong direction! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    GFS 00Z looks okay:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                          h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                          h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And the temp. ens:  t850Bedfordshire.png   t2mBedfordshire.png

    So, plenty of useable weather to come; but no suggestion of the heatwave no-one's been predicting!😁

    Usable weather will do me. Some drier days and any increase in temp will be welcome. Also reduced rainfull hopefully...

    image.thumb.png.cfbc94ce4469aa54c63797cad0b7283f.png

    So far there has been 88mm here this May. Back in April was worried about lack of rain . Thats been corrected now and some.....Still not done deal though as plenty can change with some of the models not looking so good this morning,  however has to be better than what we have been having...😃 

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    21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.44c3a2d8b776c3100f7a1965a54f300d.png

    A slightly disappointing ECM op run today confirmed by it being a bit off key.

    I'm not liking the slide down to back below average on the ensemble as we head into June though! That line is heading in the wrong direction! 

    Oh come on 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.44c3a2d8b776c3100f7a1965a54f300d.png

    A slightly disappointing ECM op run today confirmed by it being a bit off key.

    I'm not liking the slide down to back below average on the ensemble as we head into June though! That line is heading in the wrong direction! 

    Yep.  If that trend doesn’t improve I guarantee there will be some ‘Summer’s over’ posts on here before we even reach the equinox....    However,  despite the apparent desire by the models to predict a cool wet summer there’s still loads of time for everything to change - and it almost certainly will.   CFS looks plummy (plumey?) by mid-June (...jff  😉)...

    E17A2C36-FBC1-4D4D-AD2A-46440FA72A29.thumb.png.eaaa260763aabce9d236271e56ab3b57.png  B11A96AB-AB8A-4949-8645-4DFC20E8E0CE.thumb.png.14915a903c011549fa1c3f33d86e0363.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    47 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    Yep.  If that trend doesn’t improve I guarantee there will be some ‘Summer’s over’ posts on here before we even reach the equinox....    However,  despite the apparent desire by the models to predict a cool wet summer there’s still loads of time for everything to change - and it almost certainly will.   CFS looks plummy (plumey?) by mid-June (...jff  😉)...

    E17A2C36-FBC1-4D4D-AD2A-46440FA72A29.thumb.png.eaaa260763aabce9d236271e56ab3b57.png  B11A96AB-AB8A-4949-8645-4DFC20E8E0CE.thumb.png.14915a903c011549fa1c3f33d86e0363.png

    Well anyone who posts such things 2-3 months before a season is over (it's worse in winter for sure) needs their head testing. You simply can't predict anything that far away.

    I don't remember seeing one single forecast for the one of the driest and sunniest Aprils on record swiftly followed by one of the wettest and coolest Mays?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ECM only dips into FI. Looks ok up to 144, which is pretty much the far reaches of what’s reliable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.e74f4d02ef0150c736a96570334053fc.png

    Anyone wanting some heat - look away now. The 00z clusters build another huge Greenland high at day 11-15 and leave us back where we started in May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    8 minutes ago, milomolly123 said:

    its to far out to say id not worry about day11-15 it will change 

    You can't get any details but looking at day 7 you can predict how things could turn out with blocking say. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, milomolly123 said:

    has anyone order a super cell

     

    Would be nice to have one but unlikely. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Another pretty good GFS run, this morning . . . far too early for making summer guesses just yet, but I'm getting the idea, this year's will be like 2021?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    Surely this pattern change we're all so desperate for has to change as we head into June. 1st onwards, although FI, still look promising on some of the output. As someone mentioned before, models do tend to flip flop when they detect a change coming. If that's the case let's just hope it's a good one! 

    I certainly don't want a start to June like the jubilee weekend in 2012. Fingers and toes crossed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

    This summer I think has 1987 written all over it. The cooler start to the year, with snow across most parts of the country, despite some areas missing out, and the continuation of colder days lingering into spring. The brief warm spell in the last few days of March, the very sunny and dry but cold April, followed by a cold and damp May. 
     

    June could be a month of two halves, with cool weather for the first half, before it turns hot and sunny mid month. 

    A few notes on this comparison, even if dfficult to tell all from a limited review of the archive.

    The spring overall is not a bad proxy for this year, but the April looks much warmer than this year, less northerly influence and much less northern blocking. However, there is a similar overall story, and both follow a January SSW (can't find the data to remind myself how the two events compare)

    Everything looks a little later also in 1987, in that the late storms and cold, wet weather continued well into June. The evolution as that weather changes is similar to what might happen over the next week or two, with the low track shifting North, and the Azores high gradually pulsing up with high pressure West of centre. 

    We might be in a similar phase of the solar cycle now, but more significantly 1987 was a moderate (and increasing) El Nino year, whereas we are currently still under La Nina (albeit decreasing).

    If we ignore those contrasts for a moment and entertain the model, then the good news is that 1987 looks like a decent summer from the charts, particularly in the South, and all the way through to October. Frequently HP dominated, plenty of sun and warmth. Occasional disruption from upper lows and intrusions from the Atlantic, as you would expect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    Posted (edited)

    With regards to the FI output headed negative again although I'm on mobile so cannot highlight it is worth saying that the tropical zonal wind map has indicated that Pacific trades (Nina) may stop the current WWB while it's still in the west Pacific. This is a location which favours a somewhat westerly pattern even if Azores rather than high lattitude driven.

    What happens towards mid June depends on whether the wave in the Pacific makes another push or just fizzles away and equally whether after that, the trades expand westward.

    Moral of the story is that at least for now nominally high AAM may have got you a bit too excited and in the regional Pacific sphere at least, a Nina pattern is still more or less holding for now keeping the downstream pattern for the UK less exciting.

     

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
    Posted (edited)

    Looking at todays ECM for 18:00 hrs and if one saw this for a weeks time you'd be for forgiven for not being too happy., But the actual weather on the ground for most is very usable indeed and despite the odd shower, not very bad at all for May.

    image.thumb.png.21036ef93090d33d97081b6ac8271dcd.png

    Now at the end of the run I don't see anything but an improvement. The Azore High further north. The main low between Scotland and Iceland. Has it not been every thus? A very typical early Summer and what should be a very fine day June 3. (Subject to change as just one run, but previous ECM was the same with High pressure position), but my main point is this looks normal

    image.thumb.png.6fef271e2fe805e6e2fa80a94448112b.png

    A quick edit to show midday temperature on June 2 and 10 meter Wind direction. One might expect 16 to 20 across most of Ireland, England/Wales with SE England 20 to 24 during afternoon. Most of Scotland 16 to 20. 

    image.thumb.png.779633965cb4b3cb18b5dbed8f42cfc7.png

    Edited by Downburst
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Once again, the GEFS temperature ensembles signal improvement: t850Bedfordshire.png  t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Location: Suffolk

    Latest GFS mean (6z) has a stronger ridge over us at the weekend and heading into early next week compared to 0z

    (You can see it pretty clearly on wetterzentrale, so you can't complain Frosty 😉)

    6z v 0z

    GFSAVGEU06_144_1.png

    GFSAVGEU00_150_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.de7772beebdacd920120f32f272cbdc6.png

    Belting UKMO, much better than the 00z run. Can’t keep up with all this flip flopping!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.dc87ed8f4fa3c5c920a4607de1f55c80.png

    Another very poor GEM run that descends into unsettled dross in a weeks time...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GFS 12Z at T+240 . . . all is well!    👍  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    The GEM flip-flops so much - I pretty much gave up on it a while back.

    Hopefully ECM will be a good one later.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny
  • Location: leicester

    It seems to me that every run after about T+144 or thereabouts bears no relation to the previous run. What is the point? May as well not have anything post 8 or 9 days out as it is either HP oriented one run and the next there is a trough slap bang over us.

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