Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Frosty.]

38 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

there’s some good signs from the GEFS / ECM! 

And the Anomalies!!.. ...I’m going to take more notice of the Anomalies in future, it’s not all about the mean..is it mushy..JH?  

[Methuselah]

All's still on schedule -- the warm-up is coming!   

     

     

The road is rocky, but it won't be rocky long!

[Frosty.]

There’s a change on the horizon...yes there is!...oops, Michael Fish has already said that.. ...sorry Michael!!     

Edited May 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Yee Haw! The 12Z promises a fine, sunny and warm weekend! 

       

[Britneyfan]

Omg finally!!! A decent outlook, could be low twenties again, could even challenge the 24.5° before the end of May 

[mb018538]

Some very nice charts starting to sow up now in just over a weeks time. With more regularity too. A little taste of summer may not be far off now folks.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Omg finally!!! A decent outlook, could be low twenties again, could even challenge the 24.5° before the end of May 

It's so 'decent', I think I'll dedicate this post to whomever writes the BBC's monthly forecasts: 

     

Edited May 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Zak M]

My oh my, what is the 12z GFS up to here?

   

Chance of mid - high twenties in parts of England if this verifies.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Zak M

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

My oh my, what is the 12z GFS up to here?

   

Chance of mid-twenties in parts of England if this verifies.

Whit week too!

[Frosty.]

Wow, just look at the Gfs 12z op..and remember, those are noon temps..you can easily add 4 or 5 degrees c to that!  !!!...summer is coming guys..and Spurs actually won a game..and it’s a hot topic!!!.. ...I need a lie down!

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

GFS says ‘want your first 25c of the year, oh and by the way what about a run at 30c while we’re here?’ 

Would be typical of our climate, dreadful for weeks and weeks to flip from basically an extended winter straight into summer full blast.

Would also be mildly amusing to break 30c a few days into summer with lots of people suggesting it wouldn’t happen all summer. 

Still I’m sure the 12z run will be a massive outlier....

 

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS says ‘want your first 25c of the year, oh and by the way what about a run at 30c while we’re here?’ 

Would be typical of our climate, dreadful for weeks and weeks to flip from basically an extended winter straight into summer full blast.

Would also be mildly amusing to break 30c a few days into summer with lots of people suggesting it wouldn’t happen all summer. 

Still I’m sure the 12z run will be a massive outlier....

 

It’s amusing eh! Although only a fool would bet against 30C not being achieved all summer! In fact, you’d be shocked if 90F wasn’t reached these days.

[Methuselah]

Could this be the first heat-low of the season? Almost certainly not; but hey, all I ever do, is drea-ee-ee-ee-eam:

     

What could possibly go wrong?!

[Iceman2606]

March highest temp of spring 2021 at risk if the GFS 12z verifies. A warmup in last few days of May is expected but some models are now showing mid twenties as a possibility.

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think it is safe to say there is more chance of Stevie Murr and Ian Brown posting in this thread again…than there is of us beating the Spring top temperature of 24.5C back in March.

GFS is having a laugh here - for example…temperatures on that chart are 4C higher in NE Scotland and SE England …compared to what the Met Office are currently forecasting.

Latest UKMO for Saturday…again much cooler 850hPA temperatures!

UKMO 13:00:
+4 850hPa into the London area at 13:00 (GFS is showing +8/9)

L

 

UKMO 14:00:

 

I would love the GFS to be correct of course but it looks like cannon fodder to me for Saturday - just my unbiased/non ramping view incase any new members/guests get sucked in by it. 

All the best!

Please no

[Guest]

Unsurprisingly the GFS 12z is a warm outlier, however IMO it’s way better to have warm outliers for the Ops run with the mean starting to sneak above average at this time of year compared to cold outliers against a mean already well below average which is what we’ve had for most of the last month. 
 

Over to the ECM now, which also appears to seeing its highest resolution members produce much warmer solutions. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think it is safe to say there is more chance of Stevie Murr and Ian Brown posting in this thread again…than there is of us beating the Spring top temperature of 24.5C back in March.

GFS is having a laugh here - for example…temperatures on that chart are 4C higher in NE Scotland and SE England …compared to what the Met Office are currently forecasting.

Latest UKMO for Saturday…again much cooler 850hPA temperatures!

UKMO 13:00:
+4 850hPa into the London area at 13:00 (GFS is showing +8/9)

L

 

UKMO 14:00:

 

I would love the GFS to be correct of course but it looks like cannon fodder to me for Saturday - just my unbiased/non ramping view incase any new members/guests get sucked in by it. 

All the best!

Edit: @Howie below - London is still 19/20C on Saturday - not bad at all in any sunshine! You could even pop round to Heathrow for a chance at 21C!  Current output)

Please no! don't fancy dodging flying toys and dummies

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GEFS, if anything seem to be getting wetter

[Frosty.]

There’s change on the horizon.. ...come on frosty, you’ve used that line already! ...anyway, the GEFS 12z mean hints at change on the horizon!  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 following the GFS tonight, big time.  I think this is broadly in line with expectations from a week or so ago, just the NWP needed to sort things out.  Longer update later:

[mb018538]

Well. A big hot settled outlier of a gfs run, and a very poor ecm 12z run compared to the gfs and also the 00z run. I suspect it’s going to be bottom of the pack.

Going through the GFS ensembles too - the majority blow up a low and plough it straight through the UK next weekend (see below) which seems very at odds with ukmo and ecm.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 following the GFS tonight, big time.  I think this is broadly in line with expectations from a week or so ago, just the NWP needed to sort things out.  Longer update later:

That doesn't look like a long lasting settled scenario at all to me Mike...and at that time the SE would be cool and potentially wet?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Pretty poor ECM 144 tonight. (Saturday)

 

 

Ongoing threat of rain/showers throughout next week/weekend as mentioned previously.

I really want to join in with the hype about later next week…but I just can’t get excited about average temperatures (odd warmer day thrown  in) with the risk of extensive cloud cover. rain/showers and sunny spells! 

Hopefully this ECM is a massive outlier from day five onwards. (UK as whole point of view - would bank it for IMBY from next Sunday onwards! )

As I've pointed out, the GEFS aren't all that settled.

This being said, I think it's a given it will feel more pleasant out and about than it has done recently.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That doesn't look like a long lasting settled scenario at all to me Mike...and at that time the SE would be cool and potentially wet?

Looks OK to me Crewe, T216:

Even got a potential heat pump low in the wings there.  

And most summer lovers aren’t looking for a lasting settled spell, it is anything at all, and the model output today has been a massive improvement for some dry and maybe warmer weather ahead.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Howie]

Of course the ecm would crash us back to reality, goodness