Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

Well, the GEFS temperature ensembles aren't cherry picked:       

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Omg I luv T+240 ECM 12z op..come too think of it..T+216 isn’t bad either! ..summer is coming guys! 

Aye, better chart/model Jon!

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, better chart/model Jon!

I’m so happy I could crush a grape..  ! ..being serious though, there’s been NO downgrade in the mean at all in recent days, just variability with the ops which is to be expected..anyway, love the ECM..hope it’s right..for once..  !  

Edited May 22, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

ECM is nice again at day 9/10, but we’ve been stuck there since about midweek. The ones that were showing then and have moved in to day 6/7 now aren’t anything like as settled. If it means a slightly longer road through next week and weekend to get there then I’ll take it!

[minus10]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

 

UKMO 144 - that’s what we’ve been waiting for!

Near perfect from UKMO. Gentle drift from ese and i should imagine pretty clear skies. Well, its a chance ..eh?

[Frosty.]

Not a bad first day of summer chart from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean..compared to the current crap!!    

Edited May 22, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Weather-history]

That would be a shock to the system

[mb018538]

 

Bank Holiday weekend treat from the ECM this morning  

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

That would be a shock to the system

A very welcome one too- feeling much more positive after looking at this morning's runs. Hopefully a 1975 style switch is on the cards.

[Methuselah]

33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

A very welcome one too- feeling much more positive after looking at this morning's runs. Hopefully a 1975 style switch is on the cards.

Exactly what I was hoping!                   OUTLIER ALERT!  

Edited May 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

Getting there 

 But there seems to be quite a range of extended scenarios ....

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

Bank Holiday weekend treat from the ECM this morning  

At last a switch in the weather is firming up. No guarantee of a heatwave but hopefully temperatures beginning with a 2 rather than a 1 by the end of the week. 

[Howie]

51 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

ECM also…

 

So the GFS and ECM both go off on one with the warmer 850hPa temperatures.

UKMO 144 - cooler.

Few predicted maximum temperatures on current output for that day. (Saturday 29th)

Aberdeen 13C   
Newcastle 15C
Glasgow 17C 
Manchester 18C
Birmingham 18C   
Norwich 17C   
Bournemouth 17C    
Exeter 18C   
London 19C (Heathrow 20/21C)

Not bad if it’s sunny! (Parts of NE/E UK…bit rubbish with regards to temperatures)

I hope the gfs or ecm are right

[Frosty.]

I think we are turning the corner?!..perhaps we’ve even turned the corner?! ..anyway, the ECM 0z ensemble mean gradually morphs into something much better..on the cusp of summer..and into summer!
 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

The ECM op is only an outlier from Monday onwards- it's below the mean for a time over the weekend. There's a chance we could see widespread temperatures in the low 20s over the weekend.

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM op is only an outlier from Monday onwards- it's below the mean for a time over the weekend. There's a chance we could see widespread temperatures in the low 20s over the weekend.

Yeah - it’s a warm outlier, but the mean climbs above 5c at 850hpa and that’s the key. It’s getting warmer. No heatwave imminent, but after weeks of rain and suppressed temperatures, 20c will feel bloody lovely!

[mushymanrob]

Until now the anomalies have had the shallow high to our near West. IF this chart is correct then it supports the high building in across the UK. So IMHO  this chart now supports the ops, but not yet for a very strong high...but high nevertheless.

 

[eastangliawx]

Another good gfs run 6z. Definitely feeling very positive this morning

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Until now the anomalies have had the shallow high to our near West. IF this chart is correct then it supports the high building in across the UK. So IMHO  this chart now supports the ops, but not yet for a very strong high...but high nevertheless.

 

Great news- the ops have been trending that way for a couple of days now with the high settling over the UK after the weekend.

[johnholmes]

This picc of the EC version of 500 mb anomaly charts is a stronger indication perhaps of our weather settling down for at least a few days. It is also a sequential change over 3-4 days by this model. A better handle perhaps(?) than what NOAA has shown in the same period.

Just my view.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Until now the anomalies have had the shallow high to our near West. IF this chart is correct then it supports the high building in across the UK. So IMHO  this chart now supports the ops, but not yet for a very strong high...but high nevertheless.

 

I respect you’re caution mushy, you are right...i must admit I haven’t taken the anomalies as seriously as I should..in that respect, you and John Holmes are second to none!..keep up the good work!  

[Frosty.]

Ok the GEFS 6z still shows some crud..BUT..it also shows summery weather too...fingers crossed!..where is the Braveheart spirit !!!!!!??  

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

37 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I respect you’re caution mushy, you are right...i must admit I haven’t taken the anomalies as seriously as I should..in that respect, you and John Holmes are second to none!..keep up the good work!  

GFS 06Z looking pretty good: no intense heat, thank goodness, but plenty of early summer sunshine on offer. What's not to like?

[damianslaw]

Staying cautious, but the models are beginning to firm up on long last to a change to something much drier and hopefully warmer before the month is out, and we've been waiting for something warmer for 2 months now.. if it does happen, great timing - Bank Holiday weekend and half term school holidays, good job Bank Holiday is late this year and not tomorrow!

The change will be a protracted affair, showery and cool early in the week, settling down mid week but still cool, cold nights in the offing, through the weekend perhaps becoming warmer as heights nudge more centrally over the UK, nothing special temp wise, but high teens, low 20s certainly on the cards which under the very strong late May sunshine will feel like a heatwave compared to the last 2 months.

 

[Frosty.]

46 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

where is the Braveheart spirit !!!!!!??  

 

Non existent..obviously! ...there’s some better signs, ok not nirvana?...but better than the utter crap May has produced...I remember the darling buds of May..there has been nothing darling about this May!!!!..but perhaps June will be better..there’s some good signs from the GEFS / ECM!