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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    Posted (edited)
    8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Although +/- 0.1C is of no consequence to would-be skinny dippers, the enormous amount of energy water contains (relative to the same volume of air) might/does have considerable influence on weather patterns?🤔

    Those maps only tell you what they tell you!😁

    Ed..

     Whilst I understand the point you are making, I feel Alexis point is valid.

    Wouldn't it be better to simply have a range of +/- 0.05C as being grey either side zero, and then 0.1C differences further up (or down) the scale.?

    It would then be more meaningful for everyone. 

    MIA

    PS Being a 'coder' myself, I understand why they have taken the 'easy' approach, but they should be thinking about the 'users' requirements as well.   

    Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Deja vu anyone? Haven't we seen quite few patterns, like this one, in recent summers?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
    Posted (edited)
    31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Deja vu anyone? Haven't we seen quite few patterns, like this one, in recent summers?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Although we're in enso neutral territory,  there is definitely a La Nina lag to the N hemisphere pattern atm with northern blocking, azores high displaced to the west and NW to SE jet flow into W Europe. 

    As we get towards the end of May, the summer pattern will begin to show it's hand... if so, we better lose this signal soon, unless cool and rain is your thing!  😅

    Edited by Jack Wales
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    I’ve not been around for a day - What happened to the high pressure? It’s almost gone / non-existent on GFS now and it looks like it’s trying to bring in a small little developing low pressure from the north east through the middle of this week...what a mess / disappointment!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I can’t see any downgrade to the mid / longer term mean, to me it looks pretty much the same as recent days? which points to a gradually improving outlook in terms of drier and at least slightly warmer conditions which we should notice more by the Bank Holiday weekend and into early June?...I fully expect the Azores high / ridge to wax and wane etc but I don’t see a return to the garbage which has dominated May so far! 😉 ☀️...baby steps into summer! 😛 👶 😯 

    A95F6533-5EB2-40C7-97FC-70F7F875DF7A.thumb.gif.acb748cc9acd61f78a64c8e343aaf8b1.gif9FEC0377-9788-45EF-BDFA-21A4CD3CA7C2.thumb.png.e469ea6f38b8e41a26e99efd78c9ca33.png

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    45 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I’ve not been around for a day - What happened to the high pressure? It’s almost gone / non-existent on GFS now and it looks like it’s trying to bring in a small little developing low pressure from the north east through the middle of this week...what a mess / disappointment!! 

    The output is miles better than it was a couple of days ago to my eyes. It looks pretty much certain to warm up now next week, certainly after midweek. Nothing outstanding but a lot better than what we've had.

    The latest GFS run showing the possibility of 20C before the month is out which almost seems like a miracle in this very depressing May. Could be high teens for many from Thursday onwards.

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    17 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    The output is miles better than it was a couple of days ago to my eyes. It looks pretty much certain to warm up now next week, certainly after midweek. Nothing outstanding but a lot better than what we've had.

    The latest GFS run showing the possibility of 20C before the month is out which almost seems like a miracle in this very depressing May. Could be high teens for many from Thursday onwards.

    Yeah I was going to say looking at the gfs it does look warmer than it is now, any spells of sunshine and you can add a degree or 2 on it as well, could reach low 20s not going to pass that up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    I’ve not been around for a day - What happened to the high pressure? It’s almost gone / non-existent on GFS now and it looks like it’s trying to bring in a small little developing low pressure from the north east through the middle of this week...what a mess / disappointment!! 

    How did I know you'd see the glass half empty 🤫

    In your absence the charts were looking  worse than they currently are for anything settled so I'm optimistic they'll continue to improve 💥

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    5 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Edited it for you, lol...

    Talking of which.... they still suggest pressure on the high side, so after a messy battle, high should win out, although nothing overly strong....yet...
     

    814day.03.gif

    Hey mushy, I have no issue with you changing my wording ( some would but I don’t )!!..you actually make a very good point..I know how much you love Anomalies!...respect buddy! 😉 

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Could the first half of next week see some of us back in Thunderstorm Central?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    A look at the Euro does highlight the risk of potential retrogression after an interim settled spell. You can see that when the blocking breaks down in a few days it leaves a block to our north which joins with the Azores High. While this can work out (blocking over Scandi was common in 2018), it can go very wrong (and I would suggest is probably more likely to) if you dont have persistent low heights around Greenland (an extreme example probably being 12 or 08). The Euro looks like it's trying to build pressure over Greenland again so the route from there would likely be in the wrong direction for summer lovers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Early June may not be so bad?!...when you play the GEFS slot machine, you never know what you’re gonna get! 🤔...or is it..life was like a box of chocolates...etc..etc..glass half full here!!!!? 😉 ☀️ 🥵....

    8EAE0D21-82B7-487D-9588-85F2A73E553D.thumb.png.7c568d54eb555b78cf579c8b86dd5d29.png47D4B1DD-5B55-4EFF-9C50-142E3A2F1859.thumb.png.cb127360c78bad8ca543fe66f137224a.pngD8E50CB6-A208-495E-9608-3E67B51741D7.thumb.png.a455779c902ab42453d43461f76a23d7.pngAD0E17A9-DD46-4DE4-97CC-95BB6EA7C64F.thumb.jpeg.4ce59ef6e81b708ad4520f310425fca1.jpeg8D823132-D6A5-4C00-87D7-2F8E0653F378.thumb.png.a86072c67ceaf5fe6444197ccaf36eb7.png16AFD113-DA01-405B-B016-9B2135100568.thumb.jpeg.b8c09e694dc13436cc16b9451765816e.jpeg

    I always say "life's like a box of chocolates....there're never enough nutty ones"

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Could the first half of next week see some of us back in Thunderstorm Central?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    You could be right Ed.. 😉 ⛈ ..ps.. @ cyclonic woteva..I may be nutty but at least I’m good (popular)..if I misunderstood you..I’m sorry!!!!!! 😛 

    01DA504A-D10B-4DAC-B9FD-881EE0EF921E.thumb.png.087d5a096d86f296515f600c4dba9321.pngE6D2FF66-ACCB-4D2B-A3D7-AB382E68C44D.thumb.png.4fb3ed2b814411bcea0a2c0dcfdc8bc0.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    10 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

    I always say "life's like a box of chocolates....there're never enough nutty ones"

    Cuckoos are rarer these days 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.27f136014d67b9da85c7b9adc5c05f42.png
     

    UKMO 144 - that’s what we’ve been waiting for!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don’t pretend to be an expert..but who really is an expert?..hmm....the weather does what it wants, not what we say it will do! 😉..anyway, on the cusp of summer..here’s some potential! 😯 

    82E1F835-FBA6-40D6-9AA6-A348DA108141.thumb.png.c69e9392cb8061006508f4583fa9b346.pngAF81EE68-B28F-4B7A-893C-827907EF0A33.thumb.png.a58958823c33a71585af7ec4db80b4da.png72B2C33F-1FA7-4ACB-B426-BFEB7BA127E0.thumb.png.53fff1fcbc484c847c57ace9f8c33e60.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)
    23 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I don’t pretend to be an expert..but who really is an expert?..hmm....the weather does what it wants, not what we say it will do! 😉..anyway, on the cusp of summer..here’s some potential! 😯 

    82E1F835-FBA6-40D6-9AA6-A348DA108141.thumb.png.c69e9392cb8061006508f4583fa9b346.pngAF81EE68-B28F-4B7A-893C-827907EF0A33.thumb.png.a58958823c33a71585af7ec4db80b4da.png72B2C33F-1FA7-4ACB-B426-BFEB7BA127E0.thumb.png.53fff1fcbc484c847c57ace9f8c33e60.png

     

    Me neither, Frosty . . . But I'd take this -- were it (or anything like it) to verify!🤔🤣

    h500slp.png      h850t850eu.png

    NW slot machine say:   🎰

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    Posted (edited)
    5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Early June may not be so bad?!...when you play the GEFS slot machine, you never know what you’re gonna get! 🤔...or is it..life was like a box of chocolates...etc..etc..glass half full here!!!!? 😉 ☀️ 🥵....

    8EAE0D21-82B7-487D-9588-85F2A73E553D.thumb.png.7c568d54eb555b78cf579c8b86dd5d29.png47D4B1DD-5B55-4EFF-9C50-142E3A2F1859.thumb.png.cb127360c78bad8ca543fe66f137224a.pngD8E50CB6-A208-495E-9608-3E67B51741D7.thumb.png.a455779c902ab42453d43461f76a23d7.pngAD0E17A9-DD46-4DE4-97CC-95BB6EA7C64F.thumb.jpeg.4ce59ef6e81b708ad4520f310425fca1.jpeg8D823132-D6A5-4C00-87D7-2F8E0653F378.thumb.png.a86072c67ceaf5fe6444197ccaf36eb7.png16AFD113-DA01-405B-B016-9B2135100568.thumb.jpeg.b8c09e694dc13436cc16b9451765816e.jpeg

    Model watching is also like a box of chocolates - mostly full of empty wrappers and sweets that nobody wants because somebody else got there first and took all the good ones. 

    Edited by 38.7°C
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    13 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    Model watching is also like a box of chocolates - mostly full of empty wrappers and sweets that nobody wants because somebody else got there first and took all the good ones. 

    I suggest you give summer a chance?..it hasn’t even started yet!!....witty..or shi**y? 😉 💩 

    8DDC03F7-FEBF-41DB-A7A3-283123B3131A.thumb.png.89bae78aaa653be5dc1a6dc241906098.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Cherry picked GEFS in FI though, not accurate and of no interest! can be misleading to new members, they might see that chart and think that's what it will be like

    surely GEFS 26 is very low res

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    On the face of the gfs it’s still showing warmer temps midweek onwards could even get a day over 20 somewhere in the south east before June! Surely a lot better than the current 13/14 that we have ?

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