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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    I don’t think the ECM 12z operational is garbage, well it is for a while but it then improves..looking at the bigger picture (NH)...I would keep an eye on that very warm air to the south, it does start moving our way..of course, it’s T+240 plus hours range but still worth discussing? 😉 ☀️ 🥵 😛 

    233445D7-E6CB-49A0-803A-CDD672376CB2.thumb.png.bf00ff24b337f6d73b49081fb8c5f79d.pngD2897C3F-60AF-4BE2-AE4B-3F304FA515EC.thumb.png.0d0ce0313e9ff5ef4526efeba0f0b744.pngDD67C815-BD6A-4355-A3DF-38E46F92C003.jpeg.f77d9c140e9e458a4a47685b861cd627.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted Images

    I'm starting to get concerned that the upper trough thing will be a reality and we'll just get cool, cloudy weather. Just our luck......

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Posted (edited)
    18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Sorry but that 12z ECM run is utter garbage. Not only do we have a pesky upper trough left from the Low over the UK in the first half of the week, another nuisance feature makes its way in from the west. At day 9 we have 2 upper lows visible. Net result is cool air aloft, plenty of cloud, some showers and disappointing temperatures despite pressure being high. Hoping it’s wrong and GEM is more on the money.

    image.thumb.png.b131fc725732ceb366a166450beb925e.png

    It’s because as we get closer, the HP is being shown to gain more latitude...Something that I have pointed out but which has largely been ignored.

    It’s something we’ve been seeing happen for months. Still, can’t see it being as crud as it is right now and it’ll certainly warm up some.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Models seem determined to scupper any chances to escape this dire pattern we are in. 
    This is by far the worst May that I can remember. In fact, I don’t recall one being even half as bad as this.

    But still confident of a major pattern change in early June.

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex

    Maybe that little feature that's formed somewhat early in the Atlantic may be our saviour in the not to distant future? Either that, or the weather will finally sort it's self out and that little feature will be the thing that knocks us back to square one!  ( Ignore me if I'm talking rubbish, far too much time, and wine, on my hands!!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Feels like we’ve seen a big deterioration in the output in the last 24hrs, high pressure appears to have much less influence as we move through next week leaving the uk open to further spells of unsettled and cool conditions. It really is becoming the one worst spells of unsettled and below average conditions I can remember especially with that ECM long term outlook, could end up writing off Apr, May and June at this rate. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex

    @Jon Snow I need some of your positivity this morning! Just need the first weekend in June to be dry and sunny in Bournemouth due to a golf weekend I'm going on. Give me some hope mate - please!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    41 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Feels like we’ve seen a big deterioration in the output in the last 24hrs, high pressure appears to have much less influence as we move through next week leaving the uk open to further spells of unsettled and cool conditions. It really is becoming the one worst spells of unsettled and below average conditions I can remember especially with that ECM long term outlook, could end up writing off Apr, May and June at this rate. 

    Not sure I totally agree there - though I don't like the way the GFS evolves and ends up with this at the end. If northern blocking returns in full force then the chances of anything warm and settled lasting is pretty remote.

    image.thumb.png.6331ed0f6d9c9f1840e015c38f4e2fd2.png


    A bit at odds with the ECM at the moment though.

    Look at the 00z 240 NH view against last nights ECM 12z mean. No high pressure over the pole at all on the ECM.


    image.thumb.png.c2f7563b7f879abd5b1984a4af1ff49f.pngimage.thumb.png.edf1c8fd5beaf76c4e6d8f09b7f06459.png

    GEM is fairly pleasant by day 9/10, especially in your neck of the woods sheltered on the south coast. Light winds and temps high teens/20c by Monday there.

    image.thumb.png.524ee4c12d0bd1e7ca88899d4941105f.pngimage.thumb.png.710fc0147ba58164fff2cc4412a8fb8e.pngimage.thumb.png.67e34e25c8cc0e2839d47dba731f7e57.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    image.thumb.png.598f7c90db59a93831ae064f7c99fb7d.pngimage.thumb.png.570d4a5aa1c75a3f423b9ceb97afd9ea.png

    ECM looking pretty good by day 9 too 🙂

    For those that like the sun and settled weather without the heat (and there are a few on NW!) then this could be ideal. Upper teens and light winds.
    A nice tonic as I sit in my work office listening to 50mph winds rattle around the windows.

    Edit - Day 10 also looks grand:

    image.thumb.png.ecc6dd0f0a052cb581eccedadb21dc7c.pngimage.thumb.png.4162fd9ba2401a10543eef48bf4e4a19.png

    No northern blocking to be seen either:

    image.thumb.png.dc1231a3962d4e14c4726591507dadaa.png
     

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.598f7c90db59a93831ae064f7c99fb7d.pngimage.thumb.png.570d4a5aa1c75a3f423b9ceb97afd9ea.png

    ECM looking pretty good by day 9 too 🙂

    For those that like the sun and settled weather without the heat (and there are a few on NW!) then this could be ideal. Upper teens and light winds.
    A nice tonic as I sit in my work office listening to 50mph winds rattle around the windows.

    ECM ends up pretty nice as you say at D9 & 10, really need to start getting these charts out of D9 & 10 which is where they've been for an eternity and get them into the reliable time frame. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    ECM ends up pretty nice as you say at D9 & 10, really need to start getting these charts out of D9 & 10 which is where they've been for an eternity and get them into the reliable time frame. 

    Cloud amounts don't look great for eastern areas though but it is a long way off

    overview_20210521_00_204.jpgoverview_20210521_00_228.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Cloud amounts don't look great for eastern areas though but it is a long way off

    overview_20210521_00_204.jpgoverview_20210521_00_228.jpg

    Probably because there's a 1033mb low trapped in there over the weekend! 😁

    A long way down the road though as you say. That'll be the fly in the ointment on this particular run, but very likely to change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Probably because there's a 1033mb low trapped in there over the weekend! 😁

    A long way down the road though as you say. That'll be the fly in the ointment on this particular run, but very likely to change. 

    That has to be the highest low I've ever seen! The way its going its almost certain to come off lol!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    Everything still reminds me of May-June 1983. But, at least this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles hold some promise:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png     image.thumb.png.c3b0d6bd97fd1f58599132f7c6967809.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    That's it, I'm done! Time to head for the Greenland Riviera!😁 

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    image.thumb.png.b57658f90a3e183e67d271efb5a80bc8.pngimage.thumb.png.910661737a1182243952b14ae736845b.png

    Looks like the 6z GFS is having another wobbly....I'll leave it to go on it's merry way.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    00z vs 06z for Bank Holiday Monday - Greenland high vs Greenland low. Nice and consistent! 🤦‍♂️
    image.thumb.png.dc21dee6fa9ee69aaa6fd9e46996ad3b.pngimage.thumb.png.14ab570db69d2e249ce5e637bb066dc3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    That's it, I'm done! Time to head for the Greenland Riviera!😁 

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    I hear the Greenland Riviera is lovely this time of year..hmmmm.. 😉..anyhoo,  the GEFS looks fine in early June further south!...thanks Roadrunner..good luck with your golf weekend.. 🏌️👍 🤞 ☀️
    0744B7B1-0FE4-4836-A26B-1D5A3692E9BB.thumb.png.95c425f15bc83e59cfa8d1221e067bb3.pngC9E8083C-13E2-4489-9322-D7EF0A744D95.thumb.png.25c791f4ba17e57cb964397cb223300f.png 

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I hear the Greenland Riviera is lovely this time of year..hmmmm.. 😉..anyhoo,  the GEFS looks fine in early June further south!...thanks Roadrunner..good luck with your golf weekend.. 🏌️👍 🤞 ☀️
    0744B7B1-0FE4-4836-A26B-1D5A3692E9BB.thumb.png.95c425f15bc83e59cfa8d1221e067bb3.pngC9E8083C-13E2-4489-9322-D7EF0A744D95.thumb.png.25c791f4ba17e57cb964397cb223300f.png 

     

    Time to issue a country-wide BOLO for some decent warmth?  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                                                                                                                              image.thumb.png.6c740c3f455991e1ccb3a08094a8068b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

    In 25 years of keeping records, I have NEVER failed to reach 21c / 70f before the end of May.

    That record definitely under threat this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Time to issue a country-wide BOLO for some decent warmth?  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

                                                                                                                                              image.thumb.png.6c740c3f455991e1ccb3a08094a8068b.png

    Nice one Ed, you’re one of my favourite posters.. 😉..anyhoo..I love this perturbation!!!!!!!!! ❤️ 💋 

    B1E71734-A388-4830-85D9-A32F6EE29104.thumb.png.1fef6f3308af867e507172f69d622d7c.png7A3050A1-446C-456E-B575-5383CAB9AB86.jpeg.55fb7605521c6b113d0924a2af0a96b7.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Twickenham, Middlesex 58 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow , Extreme weather events
  • Location: Twickenham, Middlesex 58 ft asl
    48 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

    In 25 years of keeping records, I have NEVER failed to reach 21c / 70f before the end of May.

    That record definitely under threat this year.

    If and when we do get any warm weather this summer I'm guessing that the surrounding sea temperatures (currently 9-10c around much of Uk) might temper the effects of any warming fairly well inland (especially if winds are blowing from the North sea) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Yes sirree, Bob, I do detect a smidge of potential: t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

                                                                                                                             image.thumb.png.12b8770ec5f10f7d358f1c1b3ec1e580.png    

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