Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

C'est improvement! 19-22C, unbroken sunshine and nary a breath of wind? I'll take it!

     

Shame I don't buy it!

Meanwhile, we have another thunderstorm!

[Mike Poole]

ECM 0z clusters T192-T240:

I think cluster 1 or 3 would suit quite well.  Both have high heights over the UK.  We would have to home grow the heat in either scenario, which would mean settled first, warmth later.  

[Frosty.]

To my untrained eyes ? ? the GEFS 6z mean is an improvement over the 0z?...there’s even more peachy perturbations too so it’s not just the op which has improved! ...baby steps!  

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Guest]

Does thoust eyes deceive me? Is that a 25C I spy on the GFS 06Z run? Albeit in June.....while nice to look at it takes an absolute age for things to warm up in the south, 12-14C nearly all of next week.

[Methuselah]

GEFS temperature ensembles do look much better:       

Come on, Summer!

[mushymanrob]

On 18/05/2021 at 07:57, mushymanrob said:

Im not buying those charts suggesting a strong high pressure... Whilst the anomalies do have a slight high over us, its still centred to our near west.

Id suggest this GFS 18z chart is more likely as its closest to the NOAA 8-14 day mean. Heat is possible, but not until we enter June. imho.

Yep, as expected, the ops have backed off from high over us but have it to our West, still very influential though but the wrong side of us for any proper warmth.

The anomalies have kept the high to our near west, and still do.

But with that TPV in place over Northeastern Canada , itll prevent a strong greenland high and promote ridging over the Eastern Atlantic, so IMHO June is highly unlikely to start wet and a repeat of 2012 isnt on the cards.

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z looks good at T174:

I kind of feel we should be doing a bit better than the models are foretelling (and the never knowingly undersold anomaly charts ) because AAM is now high and forecast to remain so:

The ECM 0z clusters were favourable, and there have been good op runs in the last two days, so I’m optimistic for a spell of high pressure, not warm to begin with, we need to home grow the heat, as I said earlier…

[Mike Poole]

That’s what we need to kickstart summer, a cut off heat pump low on the GFS at T282:

[Guest]

BBQ any one? 

Surely a big warm outlier? 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Alderc

[Mike Poole]

Not since winter have I been tempted to get the crayons out!!

GFS vs GEM at T144:

Look at the low marked with X.  That extra oomph on GFS pushes the high in our direction, but on GEM it doesn’t.  AAM suggests GFS might be right here.  

FFWD to T240:

GFS summer begins, GEM the high is too far west.  That is what the models are wrestling with at the moment, but I’m seeing a shift towards the more favourable outcome for the UK summer lovers in recent runs, not a done deal yet…

Edited May 19, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Earthshine]

Some absolutely gorgeous charts being posted up.  We all deserve some pleasant weather now.

[Atmogenic]

30 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

GFS 01/06

Absolutely beautiful chart! I don’t usually get involved in the model output swings run to run…but I’m allowing myself to dream for a moment! 

This is the time for the GFS to shine and lead the way!!!    
Keep this theme up on future runs please! 

no joke that chart almost made me teary on the thought of having such lovely temperatures because of amount of unluckiness we've had this year temperature wise  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, it is high pressure, but not where you’d want it:

Our stake is in, and this doesn’t affect it much, the pattern will shift east! I’m (almost) sure!

 

[Scorcher]

Imagine the elation across the country if the GFS 12Z run comes off. We're not asking for a heatwave (although it would be welcome) but even 21C and sunny would be greeted with total joy by many right now after everything that has gone on over the past few months.

The ECM is the party pooper unfortunately but it will be interesting to see where that run is in relation to the mean. At least it's marginally better than this morning's run.

It seems like there is still a good chance that the high will set up in a reasonably favourable position as opposed to being too far west.

[Frosty.]

Slowly but surely the ECM 12z operational shunts away the green snot to the east as high pressure builds in from the west..just in time for the start of summer..I think day 11 /12 would look better!?!  

Edited May 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 kind of gets to where we need to be, but high still too far west:

But questions still to be answered before we get to this point…

Edited May 19, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Britneyfan]

Managed to reach 18° here today so looking at the charts I would like to think any form of high pressure will help with some homegrown heat, if it’s possible to reach 16/17 under the current conditions, a lovely high pressure with sunshine will easily boost temps into the low 20s, just hope the high does not set up too far west, 

[minus10]

Wow!

Hot, humid and thundery anyone?

Looks like a tidal wave of heat about to crash over us....ok it is near the top of the gefs however is at least heading in right direction...as said a few times on here..more runs needed..

[Jordan S]

A change to dry and settled weather is coming as we know from tuesday. Before then we've got one more very wet spell in some places later tomorrow and through Friday.

Unusually wet especially for the time of year on high ground across parts of Wales, frequent showers and organised bands of rain moving across, this very heavy at times and prolonged from tomorrow afternoon to Friday evening.

Over 100mm will probably fall over the wettest place in Wales by the end of friday with upto 130mm a possibility, 75-90mm more widely on high ground, other areas will get showers and longer spells of rain too throughout the day with some places of northern England, Scotland and possibly northern Ireland getting around 25-50mm.

The Arome and Arpege probably very close to the outcome for these areas.

Even a little snow on the mountains of Scotland later in the day.

Here's the high pressure over most of the uk next week, not completely dry everywhere all the time but for most it will be.

Although temperatures will be below average for most, they might rise more widely to average by next weekend.

Edited May 19, 2021 by jordan smith

[Frosty.]

The GEFS mean seems to have gradually improved through today?..the 12z to me is the best so far, who knows, the 18z could be even better?!...I honestly hope we see a decent spell of high pressure develop during next week, there are some cracking perturbations...however, there’s some dross too, I’m not posting those, seen enough crud this May already thanks, temperatures have been pathetic, the only thing to salvage from the wreckage has been some impressive showers / storms...anyway we deserve much, much better although I appreciate that deserve’s got nothing to do with it...got that line from the movie..Unforgiven...I’m not going to forgive this May either!!!  

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Och well, I'll look at the 00Z .  . . Meanwhile: 

[Britneyfan]

18z not looking too bad either 

[Faronstream]

While the long term forecast still looks really grim for any real summer like heat the northern hemisphere's temperature seems to temporary recover and more warmer than average areas pop up.

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 0z operational, early June is looking lovely. !!!!!...reverse psychology gang..  

Edited May 20, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

Another day, another GFS run way below the average...