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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Yup almost identical which isn’t good. Will be interesting to see where ECM sits in its ensembles. GFS is clearly a massive outlier, although not entirely on its own. 
     

    157470495_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n12.thumb.jpeg.53c7ea2eb6cc20d8155560476ae8e4bb.jpeg

    I've just scrolled through all 20 of the GEM ensemble members at day 10, and it's about as much good as a chocolate fireguard.

    image.thumb.png.8377c68a97cf4710f3d9e8d649c9fe4c.pngimage.thumb.png.caa462cf1cf0d28b1c3f13326a6a6a14.pngimage.thumb.png.1176d76fbea622de100193c97fa800ea.png

    Take your pick! 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Step back away from drier weather in 10 days after much better models yesterday, have to say I was worried about yesterday's 12z runs when the Beeb MRF said 'no change for the foreseeable future' after promising a day 10 high pressure the day before. Why the sudden change when they use ECM, what did they know that we didnt? Anyway the drier weather definitely pushed back with GFS offering a nightmare scenario late will plunge us into an early Autumn. Better hope that Boris extends the Green list soon cos 67 million Brits need some sun! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM is sadly very similar. Cold air hangs around as an upper trough lingers to the E/SE of the UK.

    I think I'll take the high pressure at this stage, even if it means temps in the mid teens at first. I think we are going to have to be patient in terms of warmth as there is nothing to really force the much warmer air northwards at the moment.

    Not sure I believe it's going to as extreme as the ECM in terms of the cold air over us as the high moves in. Have -5C 850hPa temps ever been seen in the last week of May over eastern England before?

    Weird to see that huge swathe of 0C 850hPa temps over continental Europe right at the end of May though on the ECM. Basically the whole of France is below 5C as we're on the verge of moving into June

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    22 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    I think I'll take the high pressure at this stage, even if it means temps in the mid teens at first. I think we are going to have to be patient in terms of warmth as there is nothing to really force the much warmer air northwards at the moment.

    Not sure I believe it's going to as extreme as the ECM in terms of the cold air over us as the high moves in. Have -5C 850hPa temps ever been seen in the last week of May over eastern England before?

    Weird to see that huge swathe of 0C 850hPa temps over continental Europe right at the end of May though on the ECM. Basically the whole of France is below 5C as we're on the verge of moving into June

    image.thumb.png.b6b657aea5fccbcb2c3d2b270e8164fb.png

    As we all suspected - a massive cold outlier. Anything from +6 to -2 possible though, so we're still a bit clueless. It's a case where a shift of 100 miles makes all the difference. If that residual upper trough stays out of the way it'll be very nice. If it sticks close by, could be quite cool.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.b6b657aea5fccbcb2c3d2b270e8164fb.png

    As we all suspected - a massive cold outlier. Anything from +6 to -2 possible though, so we're still a bit clueless. It's a case where a shift of 100 miles makes all the difference. If that residual upper trough stays out of the way it'll be very nice. If it sticks close by, could be quite cool.

    I've noticed a pattern for the morning runs to keep the high west and the evening runs to force it through further east which would produce warmer temperatures (relatively speaking). It will be interesting to see if this continues later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    image.thumb.png.b6b657aea5fccbcb2c3d2b270e8164fb.png

    As we all suspected - a massive cold outlier. Anything from +6 to -2 possible though, so we're still a bit clueless. It's a case where a shift of 100 miles makes all the difference. If that residual upper trough stays out of the way it'll be very nice. If it sticks close by, could be quite cool.

    Let’s be honest I think as long as we can keep the -5c 850s away it should be relatively pleasant. Even under +2 850s which is below average with several days of sun we’d see temps up to 20-22c given the strength of the sun. Would be cold overnight by would take that now. 

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    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Let’s be honest I think as long as we can keep the -5c 850s away it should be relatively pleasant. Even under +2 850s which is below average with several days of sun we’d see temps up to 20-22c given the strength of the sun. Would be cold overnight by would take that now. 

    Agreed just need the high pressure now the sun will build the warmth at this time of year in april example managed to get a high of 18° despite a cool airmass just thanks to the sun 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
    Posted (edited)

    Some great cause for optimism as I view the charts for the first time in a few days this morning. Some good cross-model-agreement for a ridge building around D9-10. This is the first time I've seen any tentative hints of anything remotely spring/summer-like for days on end. 

    I've noticed some members commenting on the lack of warm 850's. I would say let's not worry about that right now, the pressure rise is clearly agreed, but the orientation of it is not, let that be decided in a few days time. Even then, it could start cool, and move around to bring those warmer upper profiles in. Let's get the pressure up first, and then worry about the temps. Even on some of the colder members, the sun is terrifically strong at this time of year, and it will feel warm, despite the surface temps.

    Plenty of reasons to be positive this morning. Hopefully it continues in future runs. Though, the Met Office longer range forecast has predicted this for the past few days now. 

    Edited by Backtrack
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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    The trouble is even under high pressure low uppers will create widespread cloudy conditions during the day which annoyingly vanishes in the evening as the sun goes down. We saw this on many days in April and with the sun now rising at 5am you may need to be up by 6am to see it if this cold high does indeed build in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    12 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    The trouble is even under high pressure low uppers will create widespread cloudy conditions during the day which annoyingly vanishes in the evening as the sun goes down. We saw this on many days in April and with the sun now rising at 5am you may need to be up by 6am to see it if this cold high does indeed build in.

    This looks like a very different setup potentially than in April with the high possibly moving directly over the UK and no northerly flow. April was actually exceptionally sunny here- no real issues with cloud build up. That was more of an issue in the first few days of the month that were genuinely cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    15 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    The trouble is even under high pressure low uppers will create widespread cloudy conditions during the day which annoyingly vanishes in the evening as the sun goes down. We saw this on many days in April and with the sun now rising at 5am you may need to be up by 6am to see it if this cold high does indeed build in.

    Sorry but I can't agree with that at all. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had their sunniest April on record, England it's 2nd sunniest on record after April 2020. Low upper air temperatures don't simply translate into cloud. It's all to do with the airmass type. We had a cold and dry airmass dominating in April, which led to lots of cold and sunny weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    00z day 10
    image.thumb.png.3d4a937fa95625c04a09886dbac63988.png

    6z day 10:
    image.thumb.png.70176da2e128d929b02442ea965cabbf.png

    No upper trough on the 6z, and the cold air is eventually mixed out. Much better run for the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Sorry but I can't agree with that at all. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had their sunniest April on record, England it's 2nd sunniest on record after April 2020. Low upper air temperatures don't simply translate into cloud. It's all to do with the airmass type. We had a cold and dry airmass dominating in April, which led to lots of cold and sunny weather.

    Agreed, the setup the GFS 06Z is showing would be very sunny for most, with temperatures gradually increasing over time. The air would be stable under the strong high so no issues with cloud build up I wouldn't have thought.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham
  • Weather Preferences: Anything non-disruptive, and some variety
  • Location: Horsham
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    00z day 10
    image.thumb.png.3d4a937fa95625c04a09886dbac63988.png

    6z day 10:
    image.thumb.png.70176da2e128d929b02442ea965cabbf.png

    No upper trough on the 6z, and the cold air is eventually mixed out. Much better run for the UK.

    I'd love to bank that. I'm backpacking from Glenfinnan to Shiel Bridge from the 29th to the 5th so a big anticyclone sat over northern UK would be perfect.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

    The trouble is even under high pressure low uppers will create widespread cloudy conditions during the day which annoyingly vanishes in the evening as the sun goes down. We saw this on many days in April and with the sun now rising at 5am you may need to be up by 6am to see it if this cold high does indeed build in.

    even now, most days warmest part of the day is 7-9am, after then wind picks up and cumulus develops

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Solid GFS this evening with HP building through next week but still a big risk of really chilly and probably foggy under in the South East. Parts of western Scotland and Central Scotland could potentially do very well next week with temps into the low 20's while spots on the east coast around Suffolk, Norfolk etc struggling to get into the teens. GEM was similar however slightly further west and was actually quite widely cold through days 9 & 10 with the upper trough in situ dragging in unpleasant a north easterly for all. Need to get high pressure 150-250miles further east!!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GEFS mean very close to the GLOSEA and EC seasonal suggestions of HP being centred to the W of the UK-possibly a repeating early summer anomaly.

    gensnh-31-5-300.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM T168 really positive chart looking to push the high in at just a week away.  

    0A27E304-1EA3-4B50-8D7B-6C0BCEB9AB6E.thumb.gif.9fc0cb0f3c06cfb5086d7069c7ea8c51.gif

    Work to do on the T850s as we all know given the spring we have had, and it may be a case of home growing the heat, but the sun is approaching its highest strength so I’m not worried about that:

    B5EB3425-CEC5-4854-AABC-084CC9BA2A70.thumb.gif.5a842c0f14d2fa56b6806f13b99abbee.gif

    Edit: T192 out:

    CD1D780E-3AD3-4E3C-B253-2B17E42B6F23.thumb.gif.a0d0350eeec3e18217d373f9554129f4.gif

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T168 really positive chart looking to push the high in at just a week away.  

    0A27E304-1EA3-4B50-8D7B-6C0BCEB9AB6E.thumb.gif.9fc0cb0f3c06cfb5086d7069c7ea8c51.gif

    Work to do on the T850s as we all know given the spring we have had, and it may be a case of home growing the heat, but the sun is approaching its highest strength so I’m not worried about that:

    B5EB3425-CEC5-4854-AABC-084CC9BA2A70.thumb.gif.5a842c0f14d2fa56b6806f13b99abbee.gif

    Edit: T192 out:

    CD1D780E-3AD3-4E3C-B253-2B17E42B6F23.thumb.gif.a0d0350eeec3e18217d373f9554129f4.gif

    As long as we get the high pressure we can get a nice homegrown warmth isn’t that what happened in 2018?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Solid end to the ECM, the cold pool takes an age to clear but hard to imagine a quick route back to cold from the ECM 240 chart. In all honesty would be easy to see a cut-off low forming to the north west of Spain and advecting something warmer our way.

     

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.7694668959f57ed994ad8d4d9271ce69.png

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    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think 2018 had a long period in spring with the jet stream well north so the high pressure systems from the Azores just kept on coming.  But you are right that wasn’t imported heat from plumes from the south.  

    After this month, just need the high pressure first, get that in and the heat will come.  Do I sound like ‘get the cold in and the snow will come?’  Well possibly.  

    This year we are approaching summer from a lower base, but the sun is strong, and there is plenty of fine warm weather from the ECM T240:

    497CC396-1E45-430F-BD67-607DBFA5E567.thumb.gif.a46fe725ece501512796a5e733ccd484.gif

    And to take, hopefully, one last look from a NH perspective, there is nothing horrible over Greenland to interrupt the transition, gradually, to summer conditions in my view:

    66692B27-8E29-4C86-A037-D8659F4592FC.thumb.png.034b9a1fa420a11f29accd18b61e1377.png

    So slow build of heat, granted, but settled high pressure conditions on the way, paves the way for summer…

    Fantastic, had a feeling 2018 had a lot of homegrown heat, dont think we will repeat that lol but who knows once we get high pressure in place at this time of year we could still see temps reach low twenties even without a southerly influence, it really is the power of the sun, as long as don’t end up with a cloudy high pressure as that could limit the amount of sun we get, although, that size high pressure I would imagine the cloud wouldn’t materialise?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Britneyfan said:

    Fantastic, had a feeling 2018 had a lot of homegrown heat, dont think we will repeat that lol but who knows once we get high pressure in place at this time of year we could still see temps reach low twenties even without a southerly influence, it really is the power of the sun, as long as don’t end up with a cloudy high pressure as that could limit the amount of sun we get, although, that size high pressure I would imagine the cloud wouldn’t materialise?

    Yep, I think a cloudy high gets more unlikely as the sun gets stronger, maybe some issues around the coasts with temperatures from a low base, but that’s a different issue.  

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