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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectab

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)
    1 hour ago, B87 said:

    It's been suggesting warm and sunny by day 10 for the last 3 or 4 weeks. Hasn't happened.

    Don’t even know where to start with that comment, so I won’t even bother. Just your usual casual and lazy model observation we get on here sometimes 😂😆

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Don’t even know where to start with that comment, so I won’t even bother. Just your usual casual and lazy model observation we get on here sometimes 😂😆

    Have models not consistently shown a return to normal conditions at about day 10, only to backtrack as we get nearer the time?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Well that is a twist. GFS, GEM and Euro all build pressure from day 9.

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    Oooh finally come cross model agreement for high pressure to end the month! It’s had signals for a while but lacked the cross model support, that seems to be changing now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 minutes ago, B87 said:

    Have models not consistently shown a return to normal conditions at about day 10, only to backtrack as we get nearer the time?

    image.thumb.gif.7a8ef682f7ca6d5bbe24424590dd567c.gif

    AD22064B-6291-499F-A9F7-79D9819CA1DF.thumb.gif.605aa8243660a2bfb8cc7951d9c44a81.gif
     

    No? Couple of day 10 ecm charts there from the last 10 days that don’t show anything settled long term at all. We’ve had few  runs the last 3 days or so that have hinted at improvements that have been pushed back, but it’s been quite widely posted on here than any improvements weren’t likely in May until the last 10 days at least until -ve AAM etc was removed. It looks like taking a bit longer than we’d hoped....but weather never works to a set time does it. It’s just slowly slowly, but hopefully we will be done with this shocking weather soon enough.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    18 minutes ago, B87 said:

    Have models not consistently shown a return to normal conditions at about day 10, only to backtrack as we get nearer the time?

    In a word, no. There has been very little in the ten day range to be positive about.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    Looking promising for some high pressure moving in through the middle of next week on tonight's ECM & GFS. Would settle things down and become much milder than of recent. Still a way off yet but one to watch!👀🤞

    1607094993_ECM1.thumb.PNG.1ee38ec881ad834d583dc2208bf7a489.PNG77933437_ECM2.thumb.PNG.3abde5fa45d274c52ff6ea6d2419a8cb.PNG2118588000_GFS1.thumb.PNG.2117301781f156ae99c65373921216a7.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Yes there does seem to be some general theme in the models now for end of may/beginning of June regarding rise in pressure and drier weather.

    image.thumb.png.f286a7275b0fa891f85fb98176807507.pngimage.thumb.png.2552b4d3943bd3ae7b68c322b4f44d3b.png

    Indeed I think that given the strength of the sun it would feel very pleasant under these conditions, with the flora romping away after the previous rains...

    Just have to get this out of the way first...

    image.thumb.png.c924faf7d1ff21bdf30f79a42ffc554d.png

    As @Uncertainysays what we need now is consistency going forward.....

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    Posted (edited)

    Having another look at that low pressure system for later this week, coastal gales do continue to look likely, very windy for the south and west inland, winds gusting 50+mph along some coastal parts on Friday, then very showery after the initial frontal band of rain later thursday.

    Gfs..

    757755587_EUROPE_PRATE_72(2).thumb.jpg.76c3cf294e8b80dfd2c809907f3a7d10.jpg

    Gem..

    EUROPE_GUST_78.thumb.jpg.2a3880d991f0557c8c44a1ad433eb985.jpg

    1697734401_EUROPE_GUST_90(1).thumb.jpg.31a7ec0c7e697a289568a049b3489f91.jpg

    More low pressure probably moving through on sunday and monday so showery weather continuing with longer spells of rain in a few areas..

    1923208261_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_150(1).thumb.jpg.335021f1a91bc49ec619cbef26a87ceb.jpg

    Tuesday next week high pressure probably moving in from the southwest into many areas with the weather becoming settled and drier especially in the west and southwest.. 🙂 

    1520284969_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_186(2).thumb.jpg.ff1b227ba875ee68e0d47f58b7fd1204.jpg

    further ahead to the end of the working week so uncertainty at the moment, but high pressure more likely than not will remain over atleast some parts of the uk until next weekend at least, with the Gfs as an example.

    EUROPE_OVERVIEW_234.thumb.jpg.31c84c292002328a5725a8cbf0d631ef.jpg

    EUROPE_OVERVIEW_282.thumb.jpg.3d9292f196e5d75522a9fe351d2f66e7.jpg 

    Probably in a position that keeps temperatures average to slightly below average for much of the week but feeling warm enough in sunshine.. 

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Evening all...I'm back early- couldn't resist a cheeky look at the latest runs.

    I'm actually feeling very positive by what I've seen today, and it seems the pub run is continuing the positive developments with high pressure building in as early as day 8. 

    I really get the sense that a big change is in the offing now as this has been shown for several runs now. The models have toyed with keeping the high to our west but seem to settling on moving it further east now and over the UK. The GFS 18Z looks excellent towards the end of the run.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    Posted (edited)

    It’s incorrect to say there hasn’t been suggestions of a return to normality GFS in particular has teased a few times in last few weeks.  There’s now good agreement for a large pressure rise to W/NW of British Isles, it doesn’t appear to be positioning right for warmth at least early days especially in east which could be subject to cool E/NE winds on periphery of where high centres. A little more patience I think needed, probably more likely into June early indications look pleasant for early summer.

    1E299618-B8A1-4B38-AEF3-D3E867520646.thumb.gif.05fc40f6421ac92b9b50ae261ac422e2.gif7286C573-A868-4F78-83AF-C116097CF0E1.thumb.gif.655a0e2b3ba221b7009e8892c60a2111.gif

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    18z says cold 🥶

    image.thumb.png.693827503c836c8889692b4ce43f56fb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    9 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

    Are we finally heading towards a drier, perhaps even warmer spell of weather?

    We’ve had a number of false dawns in the modelling, especially in the day 8+ range wherein recently the modelling has been utterly abysmal...

    Here’s last Friday’s ECM effort at 192

    image.thumb.gif.b5e5b2451105b1f01bf42f58bca8d00c.gif
    A major ridge building in the wake of this week’s low

    Now today’s 120

    image.thumb.png.70e84aed934cd4c5eb760f315b93ce2f.png

    The ridge merely a stopgap before the next major unseasonable low barrels in.

    The GEFS as ever, have been particularly guilty of signposting a U.K. high when In reality the true signal was a U.K low. 

    So how can we trust that there is a real pattern change on the way?

    Well, you’ve got to look for consistency across models and runs + supportive background signals. Recent phantom Pressure rises were not supported across all models. Earlier in May the tropics, stuck around the Indian Ocean, were not supportive of U.K. heights either.

    image.thumb.gif.c233a5eff5a3014509f11513c258a429.gif
    Here’s the neutral enso phase 3 composite for May:

    image.thumb.png.fa3128adea20ef4518e0df0e7213b539.png
     

    But now we have a much more consistent signal for heights near the U.K. and drier, perhaps even relatively warmer weather:

    ECM day 10

    image.thumb.png.80f700fa0eded1223d74119d1bddaccd.png

    GEM day 10

    image.thumb.png.4d7400c1d02e0cabda0ffb28576c8b89.png

    GFS day 10

    image.thumb.png.a9871b649ed59768c4c6c4e9c777d77c.png

    Beyond this, the EC clusters very supportive of HP near the U.K. 

    image.thumb.png.c2d92508784ce25a5e667ba0fc105e52.png

    Some warm, some cool, the vast majority of members would be dry.

    image.thumb.png.4be3ec3d7120634c1c9dabf9baad4d51.png

    The GEFS in broad agreement.

    Even the lesser models are in agreement vis U.K. heights...

    Nasa

    image.thumb.png.e800b41c55ca5236a5dbdc6e7de6d6d5.png
     

    JMA

    image.thumb.gif.ab92f5c5a0dc8895f31c82dd21edf32d.gif
     

    CMA

    image.thumb.png.cb6cbcc4da42edfa15a919bfedf06ca4.png


    The last piece of the puzzle is consistency, at this range plenty of things can go wrong. The pattern change still isn’t really in range of the UKMO. If the charts above stick around for another 48hrs then we can start looking at the orientation and longevity of the high. For now, it’s mere existence is still questionable so we watch and wait as ever.

    Josh

    Early summer certainly has the best potential for the driest weather of the season this year, IMO. 
     

    Personally not expecting any longevity nor any notable protracted spells of heat however. Can’t help but feel the HP will want to draw W and/or N at any given opportunity. 
     

    Still, we should tap into something a little more reminiscent of the season we’re in going forward.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.661eacd82203bb616482152b35d32d22.pngimage.thumb.png.46c2a151247788013168d9b6f591381a.pngimage.thumb.png.87583097a6eb2d8d6173b64a48a2de53.pngimage.thumb.png.3a546c0595734931addb5b50608a2642.png

    GEM 00z is keen for a big UK high and some very warm air by day 9/10. Temps into the mid to upper twenties by Friday there.

    GFS goes off the rails a bit and drops an upper trough down over the UK which gets stuck. One to be resolved no doubt.

    image.thumb.png.a57197e8eb6d7aa38e868512f4e5d56c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Going to ignore the GFS run this morning it’s a major cold outlier with the upper trough and 850s nearly 10c below average at times. Hopefully ECM is more like Gem. 

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Im not buying those charts suggesting a strong high pressure... Whilst the anomalies do have a slight high over us, its still centred to our near west.

    Id suggest this GFS 18z chart is more likely as its closest to the NOAA 8-14 day mean. Heat is possible, but not until we enter June. imho.

    outlook.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)
    17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Going to ignore the GFS run this morning it’s a major cold outlier with the upper trough and 850s nearly 10c below average at times. Hopefully ECM is more like Gem. 

    ECM is sadly very similar. Cold air hangs around as an upper trough lingers to the E/SE of the UK.

    image.thumb.png.19f9a933e8e09b01a83658b4e0c0b65b.pngimage.thumb.png.3af14ea53bd26d489858cc5b3864da07.png

    I'd expect this is an extreme solution (much like the GEM is on the warm side) and will be a cold ensemble outlier when they appear. Reality probably somewhere in-between the two.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM is sadly very similar. Cold air hangs around as an upper trough lingers to the E/SE of the UK.

    image.thumb.png.19f9a933e8e09b01a83658b4e0c0b65b.pngimage.thumb.png.3af14ea53bd26d489858cc5b3864da07.png

    I'd expect this is an extreme solution (much like the GEM is on the warm side) and will be a cold ensemble outlier when they appear. Reality probably somewhere in-between the two.

    Yup almost identical which isn’t good. Will be interesting to see where ECM sits in its ensembles. GFS is clearly a massive outlier, although not entirely on its own. 
     

    157470495_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n12.thumb.jpeg.53c7ea2eb6cc20d8155560476ae8e4bb.jpeg

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