Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Methuselah]

I must agree @Jon Snow: even as early as Thursday/Friday warmer air looks like moving in from the SW -- nowt great, I suppose, but good for me, as I'll be outside all-day Friday:

     

     

But the real change'll only come once the cack-from-the-north finally withers away. Which it will!

     

      

     

One question I have, re cold springs, is: How do the advocates of the 'it's the sun what done it!' theory explain away all those cold springs of yore?

PS: In no way am I denying that solar cycles have effects on our weather; if the UK Meteorological Office take them into account, it's good enough for me!

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Ed Stone

[phil nw.]

The ECM also showing some hope of better conditions going into the last week of May.

Low heights to our north west at day 7 on the op with the Atlantic ridge starting to push the jet further north as it leaves the American seaboard.By day 10 the mean anomalies supporting some higher pressure ridging ne across the UK.

Hopefully we can see this develop into our Summer friend the Azores high visiting us bringing more settled and warmer weather.

[Frosty.]

At last, the GFS / GEFS reaches the start of June..hurrah! ..and looking at the GEFS 6z mean there’s potential for summer to start on a fine and warmer note??..now, I know that some would prefer it cool wet & windy for the whole summer and I respect that, we all have different opinions...BUT..call me crazy, I prefer summer to be summery...  

yes I’ve cherry picked!..there’s still some crap..but whatever, I’m being positive!  

 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Jon Snow

[summer blizzard]

To confirm my early thoughts the GFS did indeed provide no resistance to the low out to day 10 so that's what we need to monitor on the 12z runs.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=gfs&time=6&lid=OP

[Frosty.]

Quick mention for the Gem 0z!...I promise to love Canada if this verifies  

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Quick mention for the Gem 0z!...I promise to love Canada if this verifies  

Do you know what, Karl? I think peeps have lost interest, given the endless run of crap we've endured since the start of April?

[minus10]

You just get the impression that all that bottled up hot air to the se will go off like a champagne cork given half a chance by the cold trough...

Will it get that chance?....

 

[wellington boot]

On 15/05/2021 at 13:14, wellington boot said:

Does it really have no signal for any change?

Surely there is a hint of a ridge pushing up at all levels just West of the UK on the 8-14 day?

Maybe "marked" is the operative word. Obviously the changes are relatively subtle at this point. But the anomalies are a 6 day average, so one should only expect them to change gradually. If that kink was a little further east and a little more pronounced later today, I would see that as a positive trend and a sign that things may be changing.

As per my message yesterday, I would say the trend has continued in the most recent set of anomalies and is looking increasingly positive, both in the 6-10 and 8-14 day charts. Another day or two of improvements and I think we could have some confidence that change is on the way. Would also be consistent with Tamara's analysis from yesterday.

[Methuselah]

Nice to see the last of the tPV remnants dissolving . . . should allow the Jet to take a more northerly course?

     

[mb018538]

Iffy 12z runs so far. GEM has gone from lovely on the 00z to godawful on the 12z. Let’s see what the ecm says in relation to its decent 00z run.

[Djdazzle]

28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Iffy 12z runs so far. GEM has gone from lovely on the 00z to godawful on the 12z. Let’s see what the ecm says in relation to its decent 00z run.

Often see this when a possible change is afoot: model sniffs it out, drops it then brings it back. Here’s hoping anyway!

[Guest]

ECM to 144 doesn’t look great, the low pressure what was off the tip of Greenland this morning is about 300-400 miles further south east of where it was this morning going into the second half of weekend and heading this way. Let’s see how the rest of the run pans out....

EDIT - At t168 there’s a huge difference from the this morning, the run will be one for the bin I suspect. 
 

Double Edit - ECM eventually pulls in the Azores high but it’s a bit more complicated and takes until the very end of the run!! 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Bank!  

[mb018538]

ECM is good by day 10. I like the fact that the last 2 runs have completely gone away from rebuilding the Greenland high as we saw a day or two back. If that disappears we have a better chance of something warmer and more settled building in. 
 

This volatility is more like a winter cold chase! Every run wildly different. The old adage applies - more runs needed.

[Mike Poole]

28 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM to 144 doesn’t look great, the low pressure what was off the tip of Greenland this morning is about 300-400 miles further south east of where it was this morning going into the second half of weekend and heading this way. Let’s see how the rest of the run pans out....

EDIT - At t168 there’s a huge difference from the this morning, the run will be one for the bin I suspect. 

One to go back through the potato peelings and worse and retrieve from the bin by T240:

And is about the T240+ timescale that we can really expect a change from the current dross to recognisable summer conditions, and is supported by background signals and other model runs e.g. GEM 0z.  Hope so…

Edited May 16, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Britneyfan]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is good by day 10. I like the fact that the last 2 runs have completely gone away from rebuilding the Greenland high as we saw a day or two back. If that disappears we have a better chance of something warmer and more settled building in. 
 

This volatility is more like a winter cold chase! Every run wildly different. The old adage applies - more runs needed.

Omg it’s like being on an emotional rollercoaster 

[Mike Poole]

22 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Omg it’s like being on an emotional rollercoaster 

Close as you’ll get in lockdown, mate, this thread has been a life saver for some.  Yes, talking about the models of course, as we have been doing, but whether cooped up with people you’re not sure you like, or isolated on your own, this thread offers some escape in dreaming about what the weather will be like in a week hence, or longer.  

Summer heat for me 12 days and counting….

[Frosty.]

A pretty decent end to both the op / mean from the ECM 12z! ...  

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z clusters T192-T240:

Not clear about our weather but what is clear is some upstream block, illustrated.  Next set T264+:

A smorgasbord, but some clusters looking very welcome for those of a warmer disposition.   The tide is turning…

[Sunny76]

The cold has been difficult to shake off this year. Apart from that warmish blip at the very end of March, it’s either been average, or consistently cold. 
 

Fast approaching my birthday, and I can’t remember the last time May 24th was cool and dull. Since 2017, it’s always been warm or even hot and sunny. 
 

I have a trip to Hastings planned for 28/29th, so hoping for some sunshine and warmer weather by then. 

[Britneyfan]

15 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Are you flying to Portugal or something!? 

I can’t see any Summer heat (25+ C) through the rest of this month - last five days of May still in recovery mode to something resembling average. 
Through the first week of June…something a bit warmer hopefully! (20C+)

I would love you to be correct though @Mike Poole so good luck with that prediction. 

Tell you what…can’t wait to see the UK bathing in yellow/orange/red 850hPa temperatures!

Had enough of the old blue/green! Latest ECM:

Pretty amazing that a temperature recorded on 30/03 will be our hottest temperature of Spring 2021.

 

Compare that to the hottest UK Spring temperature of 2020…

 

Current weather…Monday to Wednesday more showers, sunny spells and feeling pleasant in any sunshine! 

Thursday starts off alright but then goes down the toilet through the afternoon/evening. (Current output - detail/timing subject to change!)

UKV snapshots:

15:00

 

21:00

Friday 00:00

 

Rest of Friday through to Sunday…sunny spells, more showers, spells of prolonged rainfall, and temperatures slightly below average.

Looking much further ahead…quite excited now about the official start of Meteorological Summer! Average June maximum temperature here is a whopping 17.5C!    

Met Office outlook currently suggests average temperatures UK wide into the first week of June with some warmer days and some cooler nights. 
I would bank that at the moment…alongside plenty of sunshine! 

Latest ECM weekly temperature anomaly for the first week of June - similar…temperature wise. (Interesting to see the update tomorrow night)

Looking forward to my second favourite season of the year beginning on June 1st!… 

Have a good week everyone! 

It’s my 30th June 6th so I’m praying for average which is 20° in June for here 

[CasMan]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Summer heat for me 12 days and counting….

I hope your bang on with your prediction Mike I go to Cornwall for a week on the 28th

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Patience brothers and sisters...im increasingly confident improvements are on the way in those final few days of May...so let's all have a nice cup of tea and put these last few weeks behind us. 20 plus Celsius will soon be with you! 

[PiscesStar]

5 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Patience brothers and sisters...im increasingly confident improvements are on the way in those final few days of May...so let's all have a nice cup of tea and put these last few weeks behind us. 20 plus Celsius will soon be with you! 

We are singing from the same hymn sheet then once again my friend  

[Methuselah]

Not long now, folks, summer is coming!