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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    One thing we've not really mentioned, GFS for the last couple of runs brings in a really deep low next Thursday, 60-70mph gusts in the south certainly possible with anything like that solution. ECM to be fair has a much weaker feature passing through the channel. One to watch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    Posted (edited)

    Looking through the next week or so on the 06z GFS and there are still no signs of any settled and warmer conditions.

    T144

    gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.654b0573939775a81bfdf41d6ede660a.pnggfseu-1-144.thumb.png.7ac9af9f9e3a31c2bdae19b29d5b6612.png

    Another northerly showing up sourced from way north as Atlantic ridging stays out west with a trough over Scandinavia.

    On a brighter note the operational run looks to be on the cold side of the ens.graph for Warks.as we head into the last week of May.

    graphe3_10000_266_96___.thumb.png.a5e0b2098d8f96e60d323698398fcbe0.png

    Hopefully a better end to Spring and some welcome warmth as we approach the first month of Summer.We have certainly waited long enough for it. 

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Want some more rain? 

    No well, that's a shame. 

    gens-0-2-120.thumb.png.a701c05c026a799ffff7c91044070fc5.png

    But a possible Plume. 

    gens-0-3-138.thumb.png.0276f5ae5cd2469b159f8bbd0ffa02df.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    I'm not making a forecast here (at least, not in any relation to plumes or anticyclones) I'm just stating the obvious: that the deep cold that's been lingering around, like a fart in an elevator, to our north & northwest, is on borrowed time . . . Who knows what the summer 'pattern' will turn out to be?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    But, shirley, anything's got be better than the crap we have now. Hasn't it?😁

     

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff
    43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I'm not making a forecast here (at least, not in any relation to plumes or anticyclones) I'm just stating the obvious: that the deep cold that's been lingering around, like a fart in an elevator, to our north & northwest, is on borrowed time . . . Who knows what the summer 'pattern' will turn out to be?🤔

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    But, shirley, anything's got be better than the crap we have now. Hasn't it?😁

     

    Where is the Azores High?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    The 8-14 NOOA chart goes out to 38 May. It has no signal for any marked change in it supper air pattern. Until they anomalies begin to develop better looking wave lengths and positions of upper troughs and ridges the synoptic charts are rarely closer to the eventual weather within 10-14 days or so. That is the realism of the situation.

    Does it really have no signal for any change?

    Surely there is a hint of a ridge pushing up at all levels just West of the UK on the 8-14 day?

    Maybe "marked" is the operative word. Obviously the changes are relatively subtle at this point. But the anomalies are a 6 day average, so one should only expect them to change gradually. If that kink was a little further east and a little more pronounced later today, I would see that as a positive trend and a sign that things may be changing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    There are signs of summer in the GEFS 6z longer term?...ever the optimist..Frosty! 😉 ...I will keep the torch blazing 🔥 🔥  for the majority who demand summery weather..before summer even begins!!!!!!!!!!!! 🤔 !!!! 😯 ☀️ 😸

    C3EE8A49-E802-4194-918A-20FBC317A644.thumb.png.cd560aa7c0421be67708a6a0f44d7670.png6C27DA39-694B-4C04-B2DA-ADEC567FB75B.thumb.png.98d1cb68c781279b8da16e39d757e2aa.png196B674E-62EC-4C1C-8506-1498B4F72BC4.thumb.png.0d8851f09f56aacb9353fc00f3b85e35.png5C4DE3E8-02BC-4923-BE27-493D1B9C1BB3.thumb.png.457a5e7c0adee97398cdd10e04b43419.pngDAB99C1C-C0DD-4280-9667-A6055418D02C.thumb.png.c5985cc5a953ad0cd884d2e5a2dbdf09.pngD177039E-C50E-40D2-8F79-84F75DAF0728.thumb.png.1313ad3c6a27eb19d88f91aeaf019ddb.pngA11B54D1-0103-48DF-8E49-08F006BCF99C.thumb.png.b8bf8f1989b2972c4ba34b75a14f9529.pngEB4D560B-1BEC-4290-A0E7-21CB79AC10C1.jpeg.c3e8f49a8acd2fbf399e6206701f20a4.jpegC4C88AF5-8796-4EF2-B4E5-74F32707C28D.thumb.jpeg.1b717291efd2f3bf8991cb6c8574516a.jpeg

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Posted (edited)

    It's only May 15th with plenty of time for warm/hot settled weather.  Even if the coming summer isn't great for heat lovers, I'm sure it will have its moments!  We still have 4 months of potential.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Echo others comments, no change for the foreseeable from the trough dominated outlook. Staying unsettled and cool for May, often cloudy, very showery, bouts of rain. Not an inspiring outlook as we move into the second half of the month. Turning into a very poor May..

    Longer term - signal may see more of a pronounced ridge development to our west with the trough moving further eastwards, whether it will ridge in close enough to kill off the influence of the trough is the question. Either way, no obvious sign of a significant warm up, for this to happen we would want the ridge to move over the UK, the background La Nina state would suggest the ridge will stay out further west keeping us relatively cool for the time of year, but by late May the sun is very strong, and it would feel very pleasant. I'd take a spell of mid-high teen maxima, dry and sunshine rather than the current overcast conditions and low teen maxima.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Where is the Azores High?!

    Hidden in @Jon Snow's perturbations, @Earthshine. That's why he's walking funny!😁

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    My spring like sky...On a positive note, the nights start drawing in soon and we can go on the eternal hunt for the white stuff much like these spring patterns!

    image.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, whaddayouknow: apart from the scatter, late on, another underwhelming set of 06Z temperature ensembles:

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    But, whatever the models say, change is inevitable . . . but to what?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    I’ve placed an order with Amazon.co.uk.. 🤔..for P4 GEFS 6z...fingers crossed gang..I don’t even need to look at the 850’s to tell you..this would be warm / very warm !!!!!!! 😉 🤞 🤞 🥵 

    5193633A-81CC-4B66-B41B-60AC4469D048.thumb.png.f1c91c1141759d8ceab0729862855e25.pngEE6CA4EB-54D6-4529-85B1-A2B3339C533F.jpeg.74156708fbed8fe8211662b388a4ecd5.jpegB21D16E3-8F38-43F2-9DE3-1942C4B542DA.thumb.jpeg.cf84f650ba920a3dcf5a1dc02f752d7d.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

    Dropped a Tweet to Aidan McGivern earlier (Met forecaster). He tells me they are seeing signs of higher pressure dominance towards the beginning of June in the longer range models. 
     

     

    8D0C86E6-4FD7-43DD-9ABB-8F5C03FC392E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    40 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

    Where is the Azores High?!

    Good question. Seems like the quest for the holy grail!. 

    The Azores high, so often the bain of the winter enthusiast, can also be the cause of equal consternation for summer lovers (most of us) by its absence. Defined as a semi permanent area of HP over or just west the the Azores, it is currently having severe problems becoming even slightly semi permanent. It is trying but is constantly being displaced or retrogressing back to Greenland or west/north west into the Atlantic.

    JFF

    image.thumb.png.c0b33da0538830a32d2648b7de17b683.png

    It does seem that the oranges and reds are ganging up south, west and east. Shirley only a matter of time for the infernal trough to run out of steam...Perhaps then the Azores will be able to take its rightful place...

    ps Good idea JS. Its amazing what Amazon can deliver these days...😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    46 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    ps Good idea JS. Its amazing what Amazon can deliver these days...😀

    Indeed, I’ve had success with Amazon as I’m a prime customer..£7.99 a month dammit!!! ...but with  (free deliveries)!! 😯 ... so I’m confident P4 GEFS 6z won’t be a problem! 😉 😛 

    14A74325-3674-4092-BAD0-68169263D72C.thumb.png.b80eadcb6c83b732ca0b85a3f625a535.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Want some more rain? 

    No well, that's a shame. 

    gens-0-2-120.thumb.png.a701c05c026a799ffff7c91044070fc5.png

    But a possible Plume. 

    gens-0-3-138.thumb.png.0276f5ae5cd2469b159f8bbd0ffa02df.png

     

    Genuine question: where are you seeing a plume on that GEFS run? I can't find anything close to one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, Lance M said:

     

    Genuine question: where are you seeing a plume on that GEFS run? I can't find anything close to one.

    He’s trying to be positive, we all see different things when we look at the models.🙂..I’d love a plume right now!..wouldn’t you? 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    He’s trying to be positive, we all see different things when we look at the models.🙂..I’d love a plume right now!..wouldn’t you? 😉 

    Yes, you bet I would 😉

    Sadly, even when applying every ounce of positivity in my bones to that particular model run, I just can't see anything close to one

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    47 minutes ago, Lance M said:

     

    Genuine question: where are you seeing a plume on that GEFS run? I can't find anything close to one.

    On previous runs there certainly was, I'm not so sure about now but the Jet Stream looked okay. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Ok guys as your well aware I'm probably the Worlds best cold chaser! I know what it's like to see many cold snaps set up,before failing! I can't understand the frustration with the current output! Yes its mixed with temps,average at best...But please remind yourself that it's still mid May,and this current situation will have know barring on how Summer proper will pan out! 

    I've been saying for some time that it's going to be the final part of May before we see improvements coming along,and nothing I've seen as changed my take on that! The hints from GFS ens further sown the line show this,and also Exeter giving strong hints of a more settled outlook towards late month.

    And folks this new Indian varient of covid is of much more concern than the current poor weather outlook is.

    Let's hope and prey we all get through this in one piece! The weather will sort itself out im sure off.

    Keep well and enjoy the showers 🤣

     

    gens-0-1-360.png

    gens-0-0-360.png

    gens-26-1-336.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    38 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    Significant that there is increasing confidence in the tropics staying alight as Spring wavelengths switch into Summer.....

    Tropical convection modelling is teeing up another substantial MJO event to coincide with this cusp period and that bodes in favour for substantive tropical> extra tropical torque inertia to boost burgeoning sub tropical ridging building to the south.

    As soon as the coming week, my newly adopted home country is showing 'summer proper' establishing with pronounced Azores ridging. This coincides nicely for holidaymakers, but also for the likes of me who is not a holiday-maker but is embarking on a one way drive down through France and Spain in time to meet residency requirements for the beginning of June.

    This building of summer heat is the first essential piece of the jigsaw for NW Europe who is having to wait and endure another couple of weeks of cool and unsettled conditions.

    This brings us back to the switch towards summer wavelengths and the importance of the direction of travel of the atmospheric circulation between the tropics and extra tropics.  Many of the worst summers have seen collapsing momentum budgets within the atmosphere coinciding with these seasonal wavelength switches. This Spring/Summer switch suggests rather more the opposite trend.

    Rising angular momentum and corresponding poleward torque inertia  from the tropics into the extra tropical circulation wind-flow should have a profound mitigation and weakening effect on the polar feedbacks that have been perpetuating the Atlantic and Greenland blocking regimes by instead, beefing up sub tropical ridge extensions towards mid latitudes. The initial effect of this process is the strengthening of the temperature gradient as the heat line over lower latitudes seeps northwards to engage the stubborn pools of polar origin air, and feeding yet more lows tracking at the initially supressed latitude relative to more northern parts of europe, and so perpetuating the poor weather across those more central and northern parts of Europe.

    However,  as the tropical forcing increasingly engages the extra tropics further, then the amplification of sub tropical ridges become more poleward (rather than  top down from the pole in basic language) and the jet stream eventually gets incrementally kicked and forced northwards with time

    Another factor in play behind such a switch is the QBO and angular momentum relationship vs solar forcing. Some of the poorest summers have seen collapsing angular momentum in late May at the same time as the QBO phasing has switched from westerly to easterly, or has at least embarked on a weakening westerly trend.  Low solar forcing in tandem with low momentum tendencies and trending easterly QBO phasing augments the circulation of ozone at higher latitudes - perpetuating blocking in these regions and across the North Atlantic. Seasonal wavelength changes intensifying this regime by sustaining  cyclical retrogression, rinse and repeat of this pattern. Numerical models could become a cropper if they try to persistence factor the deadlock too far into this seasonal switch.

    Late Spring 2021 sees robust eastward propagating tropical convection leading to boosted angular momentum at the same time as westerly QBO phasing erratically weakens under a low solar regime......

    QBO:

    2021  Jan 10.19 Feb 8.92 Mar 9.75 Apr 5.25  

    QBO Calculated at NOAA PSL 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average For info https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ units=ms-1

     

     .......The direction of travel in late Spring 2007 for example saw (rapid) westerly to easterly QBO switch but crucially also saw collapsing angular momentum heading into summer and which sustained downwelling of easterly zonal wind anomalies into the troposphere. With rising momentum however, amplified rossby waves under active tropical convection conditions are more likely to produce amplified mid latitude ridging. Seasonal wavelengths heading into summer acting counter to retrogression of these ridges under more buoyant angular momentum conditions.

    This is very much the crossroads.  As long as there is no shortfall or unexpected failure of eastward progression of high frequency tropical convection, then a pattern flip gains parallel momentum and the effect of seasonal wavelengths under this regime is to counter intuitive to cyclical retrogressing Atlantic blocks and adjusts blocking anticyclones eastwards over or to the east of UK and other western european countries. This trend becoming greater through June and into July (assuming the background trends are maintained)  Meantime accumulated seasonal heat in countries such as my new home provide the supply line heat advection pump

    Thanks for that, @Tamara!

    Going right back to when you and I were arguing about feedbacks (thirteen years' back?) I always had the feeling that we were both right?

    It may well be down to the way my autistic brain works; but, sometimes, it seems as if I take-in what y'all say, in a subconscious way? How else could I have repeatedly scored good marks in science exams, given my ever-present gormless expression!?😁

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