Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Snowy L]

17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Shame have to sacrifice May, along with June in my view the best months of the year for fine settled weather, this if from a NW perspective..  I don't expect as much from July and August and by September all far too late.. let's hope for a marked change in fortune before the end of the month, a warm settled spell in time for half term holidays would be very good.

Yes it is actually a travesty we have already lost 2 out of the 6 months that have potential to be nice. Only thing that put this right is 100 days of warm sunny weather.

[MP-R]

17 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Shame have to sacrifice May, along with June in my view the best months of the year for fine settled weather, this if from a NW perspective..  I don't expect as much from July and August and by September all far too late.. let's hope for a marked change in fortune before the end of the month, a warm settled spell in time for half term holidays would be very good.

Really hoping for a 2006 or 2005-style switcharound.

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[Methuselah]

Day 10 on the GFS 12Z . . . and, could that enlarging/reorienting Azores HP be what Those Who Cannot Be Named were talking about?

      

I'm getting desperate now!

Edited May 12, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Really hoping for a 2006 or 2005-style switcharound.

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Striking how similar the May 2006 pattern was to this one. I recall that month being very unremarkable other than a brief but impressive hot spell around voting day at the beginning of the month. 

May 2003 was another month that had a sudden switcharound after being mostly cool and unsettled. I recall being very frustrated during May 2003 and wondering whether it was ever going to warm up again (we'd had a very sunny and warm March and April that year).

 

So there is definitely a precedent for good summers following cool, unsettled Mays. Not always the case but it does happen.

[Sunny76]

Just can’t see an improvement happening in the longer term. Think it will be a stop start type of summer. Some hot weather, for maybe a week or ten days, with longer spells of cloudy days and average temps.

[Earthshine]

19 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Striking how similar the May 2006 pattern was to this one. I recall that month being very unremarkable other than a brief but impressive hot spell around voting day at the beginning of the month. 

May 2003 was another month that had a sudden switcharound after being mostly cool and unsettled. I recall being very frustrated during May 2003 and wondering whether it was ever going to warm up again (we'd had a very sunny and warm March and April that year).

 

So there is definitely a precedent for good summers following cool, unsettled Mays. Not always the case but it does happen.

I'd take a summer like 2003 this year.

[Guest]

GFS is just poor, poor, poor, not single grindpoint temp for my area above 14/15c....until the last day of the run on the 27th. Shocking!! And while people keep saying oh GFS under estimates temps, yes maybe under buckets of sunshine, dry ground etc not really in cool, wet, shower and blustery conditions. It’s just an absolute stinker! 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

If it was a choice between this and this, I’ll take the plume! sorry coldies but enough is enough !! 

[Methuselah]

But, should the fag-end of the 12Z be anywhere near correct, real changes may well be afoot; those pesky tPV remnants can't last for ever?

    

Not that the details matter anyway, at such long range?

PS: in the sense that they're not worth getting too hung-up over -- it's only one run?

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, should the fag-end of the 12Z be anywhere near correct, real changes may well be a foot; those pesky tPV remnants can't last for ever?

    

Not that the details matter anyway, at such long range?

 

I think they do matter, Pete, when and only when they are signalling what the long range models are predicting, and the notorious background signals are also predicting.  It is a matter of when….we will see…

[Djdazzle]

35 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Just can’t see an improvement happening in the longer term. Think it will be a stop start type of summer. Some hot weather, for maybe a week or ten days, with longer spells of cloudy days and average temps.

Truth is that nobody has a clue about summer! I don’t see any reason to say this summer won’t be a good one.

[MP-R]

39 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Striking how similar the May 2006 pattern was to this one. I recall that month being very unremarkable other than a brief but impressive hot spell around voting day at the beginning of the month. 

May 2003 was another month that had a sudden switcharound after being mostly cool and unsettled. I recall being very frustrated during May 2003 and wondering whether it was ever going to warm up again (we'd had a very sunny and warm March and April that year).

 

So there is definitely a precedent for good summers following cool, unsettled Mays. Not always the case but it does happen.

Yes both Mays pretty unsettled. I’d put 2003 as worse as it was only the last few days that saw a vast improvement, and at least 2006 had that brief hot day early on and the warm thundery spell in the second week.

I’m banking on the glosea’s idea of the Azores high coming northwards. Little sign of that yet in FI.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Truth is that nobody has a clue about summer! I don’t see any reason to say this summer won’t be a good one.

I have a clue!  It will be a good one!  That is the sensible conclusion from long range models, but also looking back there was almost no Atlantic driven weather all winter, so it is hardly likely if AAM remains high, to assert itself now.  The issue has been how to drain the high heights to the north so far this spring, but this can’t last forever, and when it ends, summer will flourish in my opinion.  

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I have a clue!  It will be a good one!  That is the sensible conclusion from long range models, but also looking back there was almost no Atlantic driven weather all winter, so it is hardly likely if AAM remains high, to assert itself now.  The issue has been how to drain the high heights to the north so far this spring, but this can’t last forever, and when it ends, summer will flourish in my opinion.  

Agree absolutely, Mike -- it's when, not if!

And it all ties in nicely with what @Tamara was saying (I think!), in that we might be more prone to fine weather by dint of ridges from out west, rather than from stonking plumes from the south? And, looking at some of those T850s building down to our SE, I think that may be a good thing!

Edited May 12, 2021 by Ed Stone
Doh!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Agree absolutely, Mike -- it's when, not if!

And it all ties in nicely with what @Tamara was saying (I think!), in that we might be more prone to fine weather by dint of a ridge from out west, rather than from stonking plumes from the south? And, looking at some of those T850s building down to our SE, I think that may be a good thing!

Yep, I’ve mentioned the anomalous T850s to the SE on more than one occasions during spring, not close to us at the moment, but I think they will come into play in the summer, possibly big time. ECM T72:

It is as important to watch where the reds are as it is the blues in the run up to winter…

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, I’ve mentioned the anomalous T850s to the SE on more than one occasions during spring, not close to us at the moment, but I think they will come into play in the summer, possibly big time. ECM T72:

It is as important to watch where the reds are as it is the blues in the run up to winter…

Indeed. And, if 2018 and 19 are anything to go by, the last week of July & first week of August might be the times to watch?

[Frosty.]

Some of these GEFS 12z perturbations are so juicy I could eat them!  ?... ...anyway, good news, the mean ends with a stronger suggestion that the Azores high would ridge in!...I’m starting to get a good feeling about the end of May / early June!  

[Methuselah]

19 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

Here we go yet again, if we are talking individual areas maybe stick to regional thread, this week I’ve been hitting 17/18 

It's still 13C here just now, BF; those GEFS/GFS 2m temperature-forecasts are a waste-of-time personally!

Edited May 13, 2021 by DiagonalRedLine
Removing extra space

[Joe Watts]

Chilly 

although I wonder what long range models Accuweather use; GFS?

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by Joe Watts

[damianslaw]

Not commenting much on the models at present, simply because there is little variance from day to day and no signs of a major shake up of the current set up anytime soon. For the foreseeable the long wave trough remains stubbornly positioned in a place to make a beeline for the UK. End result generally unsettled - very showery or spells of rain, some places will do ok escape the rain, temperatures average to a little below, sunshine levels subdued - we are entering the time of year when sunshine levels reach their yearly peak..

GFS in fantasy land shows high pressure nudging in, but until such developments come into the semi-reliable 7 days, I'd urge caution on a change to settled weather coming into the horizon, fingers crossed we see a change in fortune for the end of the month, high pressure overhead in mid-late May is my ideal weather scenario.

A word on temperatures still waiting for our first 70f, since early April I think we've had possibly 3 days at most above 16 degrees, which is woeful!

[Mapantz]

A bunch of posts have just been hidden.

Stick to model output discussion, please?! 

Also, use the report button if you think a post is not acceptable, rather than replying to it.

[mb018538]

Morning all,

Not a great deal of change again today.  Staying pretty unsettled for the next 10 days, until perhaps a hint of some change?

ECM at day 10


GFS day 10


GFS and ECM have an Atlantic ridge (and another cold northerly), but it could be an escape route to some warmer and more settled weather after as the GFS shows 3 days later - as the Greenland block finally breaks down and high pressure moves in:



Trying to stay positive, so hoping this is a trend setter and the models finally starting to sniff out the shift in teleconnections.

I should probably add the fact that the GFS Op this morning is a bit of an outlier in building a high like that....but we gotta start somewhere, right?

 

[SqueakheartLW]

Not sure if anyone has looked through all of the GEM 00z members but this one in particular stood out to me

Bring on the first proper plume of the season. This has uppers over +15c and surface temps over 30c. Add that nice trough feature on the 500mb chart into the mix and BOOM !!!! Thunderstorms galore here maybe.

[Purga]

Possible snow and frost for the Grampians next WE & air / ground frost in a few spots further south if this verifies.

Sub normal May CET on the cards?

 

 

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Purga

[mushymanrob]

Well the anomaly charts dont support the current GFSs suggestion of high pressure building in around ten days time... well, nothing more than a transitory ridge anyway, so i wouldnt at all be surprised if the GFS drop the idea in subsequent runs. However, id be very happy if the GFS is right ....