Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    42 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I think we're approaching that time of year, when no-one knows what's going to happen next . . . IMO, a change is imminent --- but to what?:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png     

    Weve just had a change, from cold and dry to average and wet.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    Bom dia - saudação feliz do ensolarado Portugal🌞🙂 Timing of such change for the better proved highly concordant with the official curtain raiser to summer, and just as I was preparing to leave th

    It doesnt matter about heat, how hot is is isnt a true reflection of the summer. All model outputs are suggesting a lot of high pressure domination, with a lot of dry sunny/fine weather with respectab

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Weve just had a change, from cold and dry to average and wet.

    Hopefully this will be a stepping stone in the right direction. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Weve just had a change, from cold and dry to average and wet.

    My bad . . . I was referring to the pattern-change that'll inevitably occur, when the tPV remnants finally dissipate.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The longer term GEFS 12z mean continues to improve which is reflected by some of the perturbations!...if the mean can improve further to 1025 / 1030mb it would mean a stronger signal for a potentially good start to summer?! 🤞 😉 ☀️ 

    441C74A5-2661-46A5-B0B2-F34323F82099.thumb.png.65e260e86dbfdaa38d9ebc122fac255f.png972D0036-92C9-4CA4-BC07-0D7EB12ED360.thumb.png.f1442a03b022cfd331f52994df395276.pngA2526D1F-67DF-4198-9A13-3E27C9F416FC.thumb.png.79c1c22d01d5febcf6d58947c0d20771.png65FB6F5F-212E-482A-A143-2EB53030FDBF.thumb.png.e0000fbd04e298f8f0887a87582fa3d9.pngE7FE57EB-3081-4AC6-B6A3-0D56BF3A226B.thumb.png.b7a82a15cc52409c6af5f85c88ffb7c5.png5DAA825B-7BC0-4B5B-9AA0-FD1082693FAA.thumb.png.4fda221a3f80a85dd6c8ae44d2b7ecc2.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)

    Oh dear, less said about the 12z the better. ECM is awful and completely low pressure dominated with the risk of an inbound northerly towards beyond day ten, GFS the same trend but with the Ops run propping up the ensembles at the end, but to be honest the overall pack of ensembles hasn’t really changed in the last and continuing to trend cool and unsettled, it was only really a handful of Ops runs that indicated a slightly better out post the 20th. 
     

    1181329150_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n9.thumb.jpeg.1aba7f97082954ea7b10442afffa79a0.jpeg

    Edited by Alderc
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro and GFS in agreement tonight that summer if it arrives will not do so before late May.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    Posted (edited)

    image.thumb.gif.0b0a2555f0ab2574e962149604c4decc.gif
     

    I honestly thought that after such a -AO dominated winter it would spring back and stay strong in spring. March clearly got the memo, but April and may have just seen it return and stick around like an unwanted guest. No sign of this breaking down in the next 10 days at least.

    Edited by mb018538
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro and GFS in agreement tonight that summer if it arrives will not do so before late May.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    I cannot actually believe my eyes

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I would willingly sacrifice the rest of May (spring) on the altar if it means we can have a decent start to summer and I think there have been some better longer term signals today?!...that’s where my main focus is now..the end of May into early JUNE!! 🍒 ☀️  😉 😛

    322B0374-3BCF-49C6-AC50-D21A2ACF8974.thumb.png.808d3d784157eae5d9b1aaea97ef112f.png 

    Shame have to sacrifice May, along with June in my view the best months of the year for fine settled weather, this if from a NW perspective..  I don't expect as much from July and August and by September all far too late.. let's hope for a marked change in fortune before the end of the month, a warm settled spell in time for half term holidays would be very good.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Well despite the longer term models possibly suggesting something better through summer the shorter term pattern is more of the same, cool unsettled and showery. The back end of the GFS run suggesting any chance of a warming in the final tercile of May seems to be reducing and the number of spiky ensemble members has decreased. 

    782158416_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n10.thumb.jpeg.f37e7f4788c6e00c32ac6e48d229f6d0.jpeg

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Big Arctic high present on day 10 on this mornings 00z ECM:
    image.thumb.png.a3c4eb51f2b0da14c99bbc536a42dac0.png

    Southerly tracking jet and low pressure/rain to continue for a while yet:
    image.thumb.png.9eccd94293163e4b586842a621e76268.pngimage.thumb.png.ae89afe58e5de8c346ea3d6000b5901b.png


    NAO will have been negative for 6 weeks straight. Never a recipe for warm weather in the UK


    image.thumb.png.95c167a79d9fdfcc49f9665712ebf426.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)

    GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles are nae too bad:  t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Save for the usual underestimate for 2m temps of course?🤔

    That said, the GFS operational has us pretty-much under low pressure, throughout the run -- there could be a lot of thunder?

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    This low is not really what you want to see towards the end of May on the Gfs 0z. Certainly a very unsettled weather pattern, however at least the weather will be 'interesting' with plenty of moisture for flora and fauna, perhaps too much wind though....

    image.thumb.png.e571aaf4a02dc17c727677751bf1d8df.png

    Just hope we can get some sun in all this

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Been keeping an eye on that system that just brushes the south coming up from Spain as a possible plume.

    image.thumb.png.a0e083af85208798a465e1f9f121b4f3.pngimage.thumb.png.0d1e3c0219f43d785a0ee55c919517d1.pngimage.thumb.png.8bc308ec4ffdf6bc55d58d7e71ae0e13.png

    Quite annoyingly though we seem to have a magic low maker in Spring in recent Years, stopping plumes.

    image.thumb.png.267cca3304140140bfd104fbdc785df8.png

    Keep an eye on this though look at the rapid development over the Atlantic, could be a Spring system, although it is a weak low.

    image.thumb.png.8b987f5295241e9b5e5017e692003a10.pngimage.thumb.png.77d0fd13d5f8372803c426d6eb9da6a5.pngimage.thumb.png.a81da1b36ed6d43123be406862c4b1f2.png

    image.thumb.png.df5401b358025604f1c847c8161cc963.pngimage.thumb.png.630f619ad1a492bf9350e24e06e197ce.pngimage.thumb.png.b0a69d4e07c57962af9579dc827d0775.png

    image.thumb.png.f5e51b7546a55e97c1aba3c1682bbc92.pngimage.thumb.png.4b144bce991eff93dad703b91095c17c.pngimage.thumb.png.263ae878d5c874d29691862e47fa250c.png

     

    image.thumb.png.cddeb4a23b11f8ee7a245f907a83db10.pngimage.thumb.png.1814d06f0e4073ac85feae9766e6d823.pngimage.thumb.png.faa834bc664393896adca15244129f4d.png

    Although it will of course weaken, especially as it nears land with the wind you can see the rain there and how big the system is.

    image.thumb.png.4c3ce82e66f1578be1a631514a418fd6.pngimage.thumb.png.053cd54cd75b0f1ab7e8316ecd6286ca.png

    You can see there that coastal areas could get quite the battering.

    Sorry is this is a bit off topic but a quite violent system develops rapidly and batters the West Coast of America, something to keep an eye on.

    image.thumb.png.0798d90139dddf698d29302eecda349d.pngimage.thumb.png.6b9ac752e8be6b8fcdec3d90ee5e785f.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Keep an eye out for the 21st onwards

    image.thumb.png.5802106e662de445ad6f645edc790f41.pngimage.thumb.png.0fe3e2d3219b2f04e5ca02a34698d1c0.pngimage.thumb.png.8038907497b7f10c507358da316236ca.pngimage.thumb.png.c02d7e9ee3e6c6303ca9c978f6cdd831.png

    It looks a mess at the moment but with relatively high CAPE expected around that time but it's too far away too even get relatively close but if the plume does happen then who knows?

    image.thumb.png.7d7e6f6b9b68d8650e90863e497ff14e.pngimage.png.f59ac97a9af25e9d1b3b792e96bb4698.png

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I don't know about others but I'm not interested in storms in the slightest right now. Thunder can wait until the summer proper as far as I'm concerned. I just want a few days of warm/hot sunshine.

    Unfortunately things appear to have taken a turn for the worse in terms of the models over the past couple of days. Seems to be turning into one of those months where the weather gods appear to be sabotaging any efforts to get something more settled to the UK- just nothing is falling into place.

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    I don't know about others but I'm not interested in storms in the slightest right now. Thunder can wait until the summer proper as far as I'm concerned. I just want a few days of warm/hot sunshine.

    Unfortunately things appear to have taken a turn for the worse in terms of the models over the past couple of days. Seems to be turning into one of those months where the weather gods appear to be sabotaging any efforts to get something more settled to the UK- just nothing is falling into place.

    Certainly looks that way. Any attempts to settle things down just aren't materialising yet. I'm hoping the models just haven't properly factored this in and we will see an abrupt change appear. 

    image.thumb.png.5f0b132a36160b5f653d412f1d5ce405.png

    This is utterly horrific for late May.

    image.thumb.png.6d35451c4f43228445b3bd4d2f63a419.pngimage.thumb.png.cbd87d193151ee31da67c84d7c012be4.png

    ECM eventually moves the MJO through, but this isn't until very late into May now, and we may have to wait this long to see a change.
    image.thumb.png.bcd5eea105b0650940fa5e28d7ad8914.png
     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Well, April was a tinderbox 🔥  / drought like for many with loads of sunshine 🌞.. ok, not particularly warm but May has been poor so far and looks like continuing to be poor..depending on your point of view?..some will like it!.....( I quite like the thundery showers) 😉 .anyway, boohoo..we live in the u k!..not the Mediterranean...but, looking at the longer term GEFS 0z mean, there are signs that the Azores high / ridge could become more influential..just in time for summer 😯 ???...fingers 🤞 😉 ☀️ 
    B353E32D-CEAE-40E5-BE41-B4DEFC7BE3EF.thumb.png.c416f427f4ba2b395425c7573512d758.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    More of the same from the 06Z run. The thing that strikes me is the almost absolute agreement on the unsettled conditions way out to D9. Beyond is the usual scatter but a handful of large warm outlier dragging up the mean. Point to note now 850 temps are getting is pretty close to 5C by the end of month.

    1191207227_Inkedgfs-bournemouth-gb-505n(14)_LI.thumb.jpg.3ae0c4e62eb2d910055422cf8ff8365f.jpg 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...