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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ops run unfortunately and unusually (compared to recent history) near the top of the pack. Majority of ensembles unsettled and cooler. But maybe the Ops run is sniffing out the improvements many are suggesting from mid month onwards.

     

    4F57717C-95D5-40A3-AFB5-0B727F7C0500.thumb.jpeg.f033129023a58f5f8085512ef12135a9.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    37 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Now this from the 6z looks a bit more like summer..than winter! 😉 👍

    474C0027-67A6-4AFD-B3B5-B7CA0FAB26B8.thumb.png.e3ae366c0f1e3c3e31cc63b4453025de.pngBFE033F0-0443-425C-B890-75A676D94AAC.thumb.png.54dea62e43a2b5309c51693223b505ee.pngF3D86666-D1DA-4E6B-A427-3EEA9AE97E91.thumb.png.57f6e643e2c694c15542bbb6b08b2bed.pngFC6E9669-DF79-4E3D-9DAE-6EC5C2C3692A.thumb.png.f5f42e0c781bcf545cab54867ae41c5c.png4C6CC763-996A-462C-B420-3FB7D7C12AA6.thumb.png.0b9521b2fdd60f2c6cc031f1b40f2443.png331EF6DA-B359-48D0-8E24-F79578CC3CE7.thumb.png.efa3a518b5e987d5bc0e9597defea88d.png 

     

    Absolutely JS. From a long draw sw

    image.thumb.png.58e992f9325a0c8b8da7c2952d4dab76.png

    (havent seen that much lately) 

    Then a warm/very warm se 

    image.thumb.png.8f8fd1f03b9771b8f9af0581656fba43.png

    And finally for your delectation, a thundery breakdown

    image.thumb.png.6813fc3c10894b482b6de08703f9f2fd.pngimage.thumb.png.abfe7e113b60875ff3938d57ee190082.png

    I would say that the 6zgfs is getting back into summer mode  🌞.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Aye guys, things are clearly looking up: no frost for the foreseeable, nowt cold, either. I will though, agree with @Alderc on one point: it would be even more convincing, were the operational somewhere in the middle of the ensemble:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Posted (edited)

    Look who's back to say hello. Northern blocking ofc

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.b3b87507eb7118c9ed1c1a7db6d9d781.png   GFSOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.cb4e72ab82d3231403c5d76294456eed.png   GFSOPEU12_234_1.thumb.png.9a3cb3a6160670191ffdc5dd6ed4ce3a.png

     

     

    Edited by Frigid
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And here we are at T+384, and little sign of any raging NE'erlies:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Nowt spectacular, I admit -- but better than a slap with a wet fish?    image.png.9dc9f8a2436dcd9f221acce7a7d1e860.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Are we heading for a below average temps May as well?

    image.thumb.png.47e85ee89aa36ee5b5b27595d7031646.png

    With some rain thrown in just for fun 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models and emsembles all suggest the longwave atlantic trough making a beeline for the UK for the foreseeable, outcome means often rather unsettled conditions and temps never too far away from average, cool maxima cancelled out by milder minima. Not very inspiring, but better than the cyclonic cold conditions of the past week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    18 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Are we heading for a below average temps May as well?

    image.thumb.png.47e85ee89aa36ee5b5b27595d7031646.png

    With some rain thrown in just for fun 😄

    Little change to the outlook, cool and showery with the exception of tomorrow in the SE nothing remotely warm to look forward too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    And here we are at T+384, and little sign of any raging NE'erlies:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Nowt spectacular, I admit -- but better than a slap with a wet fish?    image.png.9dc9f8a2436dcd9f221acce7a7d1e860.png

    Would love to see the days following that - you can see how a plume could arise out of that a few days down the line...

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)
    32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    nothing remotely warm to look forward to. 

    Not entirely true, there is some warmth here and there in the GEFS 12z longer term and at least the week ahead looks milder by day, indeed warm in the sunny spells between showers, and, for a change!..no or very little in the way of overnight frosts...so it won’t feel like winter! 😉 

    9F9154A3-2103-4568-83EA-9E66C86C3C34.thumb.png.b71ced471a3060c84ed30e81fc60f70d.png6A569AFB-9CEF-4069-A33C-0D39BA1C775C.thumb.png.8968f933c0198db29fd5eba29c8db94c.png84FF9C2D-BC69-4CAF-A706-3B308FF07DA4.thumb.png.ef3f812fe2bcecf2b2d7a7cbd9658d4e.png692C9851-BACE-465D-837C-2E8BAF1F0499.thumb.png.32847399ecdda139d90d3b612c1657d8.png13A3DB12-EE57-4786-86B0-3AB93DDEA683.thumb.png.cd016ee1ad389206bec49203438fa91f.png7BE343C8-30B0-4FB5-A0F6-2AD14EEE46CD.thumb.png.f3a46e5c653b9e9fd513d8b74fe2c3c7.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    25 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Not entirely true, there is some warmth here and there in the GEFS 12z longer term and at least the week ahead looks milder by day, indeed warm in the sunny spells between showers, and, for a change!..no or very little in the way of overnight frosts...so it won’t feel like winter! 😉 

    9F9154A3-2103-4568-83EA-9E66C86C3C34.thumb.png.b71ced471a3060c84ed30e81fc60f70d.png6A569AFB-9CEF-4069-A33C-0D39BA1C775C.thumb.png.8968f933c0198db29fd5eba29c8db94c.png84FF9C2D-BC69-4CAF-A706-3B308FF07DA4.thumb.png.ef3f812fe2bcecf2b2d7a7cbd9658d4e.png692C9851-BACE-465D-837C-2E8BAF1F0499.thumb.png.32847399ecdda139d90d3b612c1657d8.png13A3DB12-EE57-4786-86B0-3AB93DDEA683.thumb.png.cd016ee1ad389206bec49203438fa91f.png7BE343C8-30B0-4FB5-A0F6-2AD14EEE46CD.thumb.png.f3a46e5c653b9e9fd513d8b74fe2c3c7.png

    You do a great job in finding positives and keeping things optimistic but Im sorry I think we really need a level set here, 14-16 is not warm and in the showers it’ll be colder than that. ECM and GFS struggle to temps past 15c again for the next ten days, not even teens further north. It’s a cool outlook. 

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    19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    You do a great job in finding positives and keeping things optimistic but Im sorry I think we really need a level set here, 14-16 is not warm and in the showers it’ll be colder than that. ECM and GFS struggle to temps past 15c again for the next ten days, not even teens further north. It’s a cool outlook. 

    14 to 16 is pretty much average and in the sunshine will be warm, if you want 25 move to the med 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Britneyfan said:

    14 to 16 is pretty much average and in the sunshine will be warm, if you want 25 move to the med 

    I’m sure we’ll have 25c lots in the summer and as much as I’m sure many people would love to leave our dire climate behind Family, Friends and Careers are clearly more important. Still whether average or not, and I think I’d be right in saying 14c is average for pretty nowhere in the uk In May (average for Inverness is 14.6c) but still many on here intent on polishing the stinky model output for reasons I just don’t understand. 

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    Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
    2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    I’m sure we’ll have 25c lots in the summer and as much as I’m sure many people would love to leave our dire climate behind Family, Friends and Careers are clearly more important. Still whether average or not, and I think I’d be right in saying 14c is average for pretty nowhere in the uk In May (average for Inverness is 14.6c) but still many on here intent on polishing the stinky model output for reasons I just don’t understand. 

    the average for much of England, particularly the south is around 16-19C so 14-16 is somewhat cool, but in sunny spells will feel fine. so, in some ways a cool week, but not to the extent which we've seen recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    Posted (edited)
    28 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    14 to 16 is pretty much average and in the sunshine will be warm, if you want 25 move to the med 

    No, 16-18c is the mid May average for most of England, and seeing as we have been below average for about 45 of the last 50 days it's not too much to ask for a couple of degrees above average. So no, what we are going through is not normal and we are not spoilt or greedy for asking for 20C in the middle of May so if you want single figures in the middle of May how about YOU move to the North coast of Norway.

    Edited by Snowy L
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    4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    No, 16-18c is the mid May average for most of England, and seeing as we have been below average for about 45 of the last 50 days it's not too much to ask for a couple of degrees above average. So no, what we are going through is not normal and we are not spoilt or greedy for asking for 20C in the middle of May so if you want single figures in the middle of May how about YOU move to the North coast of Norway.

    16 degrees is my average, early May it’s 14 which rises to 17 at the end of May, and the only place that is close to 18 as a May average is Heathrow which comes in at 17.9° according to met office but generally speaking according to the met office site 16 or 17 is average for most places in England, and looking at the temps for the next 7 days at least, things are looking at 16 or 16 degrees especially here In the south east, and as far as I’m concerned that’s good enough, I want 25 like everyone but if we have to wait until July that’s fine 17 is good enough for now 

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Let's please keep it friendly in here. Some recent posts belong in the spring thread, Let's not stray any further off topic and continue with Model Output Discussion.

    Thanks 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Strange, arguing about a degree or two. Humidity, cloud, wind, all effect the feel of the temps. Can anyone actually identify the correct temperature consistently given that? 

    Next week and probably beyond is well within the average range which isnt a set figure. 

    Theres no heat on offer, but its only mid may. Around average especially in a strong sun will feel very pleasant and isnt something to moan about.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Posted (edited)

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

    7E62FEBD-154D-4352-A3F1-A61EDC47EEBB.thumb.png.6bd31ad38e78d3c5b105abea63fa543e.png

    There’s a lot of them, but picking the bones out of that, seems a tendency to retrogress the trough back west of the UK.  The later 240+ chart:

    B7CB548C-B223-4F98-B89F-5CEB7F63BCF2.thumb.png.28285c14bc14f895e3ec30512f9ccfc1.png

    …looks inconclusive so we wait a while more for the first hint of summer proper on the models…

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
    5 hours ago, Frigid said:

    Look who's back to say hello. Northern blocking ofc

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.b3b87507eb7118c9ed1c1a7db6d9d781.png   GFSOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.cb4e72ab82d3231403c5d76294456eed.png   GFSOPEU12_234_1.thumb.png.9a3cb3a6160670191ffdc5dd6ed4ce3a.png

     

     

    What does 'oft' mean?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Posted (edited)
    1 hour ago, MildCarlilse said:

    What does 'oft' mean?

    just an abbreviation for ‘of course’. 
     

    Edited by Frigid
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted (edited)
    9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Strange, arguing about a degree or two. Humidity, cloud, wind, all effect the feel of the temps. Can anyone actually identify the correct temperature consistently given that? 

    Next week and probably beyond is well within the average range which isnt a set figure. 

    Theres no heat on offer, but its only mid may. Around average especially in a strong sun will feel very pleasant and isnt something to moan about.

    I couldn't agree with you more, mushy: and neither could the GFS 00Z!👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Pretty disappointing 00z runs again. I’m hoping that we see an abrupt change in output in the next couple of days.

    image.thumb.png.0907a372bcb59211dd3e902529d20199.png

    This AAM forecast doesn’t really tie in with a big trough in NW Europe. I’d expect to see something more settled appearing soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    There’s no sugar coating it ECM is probably poorer than GFS this morning unsettled all the way with low pressure just suck over the UK, surface temps struggling with ECM having nothing above 14c for the next 10days after today. 

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