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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Well, compared to how the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne 😉 looks for today!...it certainly improves longer term?..sure, there’s still some filth within the ensemble members but on balance....things should start to gradually improve as time goes on?!...fingers 🤞 👍 ☀️🍒 😉 
    524393D2-8EB7-477B-9F1E-8C0D0C3C1AD6.thumb.png.92637cb74cabb5ea104cf31ceaa92960.png39C0FD82-4390-4479-9902-244C2D75EF2F.thumb.png.c4835606d43da578ff211b7e79392f4b.png9B9DF7D1-7A80-4008-AF5E-C17FBB4720DD.thumb.png.54e2810b34e2e6d9f2497498ce3e0524.png 

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    You are fixated by the gfs lol those temps can be inaccurate for example it only had 5 or 6 modelled Thursday but now I’m forecast 12 by both bbc and met office and both are forecasting mid to high teens for the weekend, 

    No not fixated, the fact is clear whether looking at ECM, GFS or the anything else high teens will not been seen around these parts anytime soon. Yes parts of east anglia May nudge 20c on Saturday but thats the exception. But it’s also the trends, yes gfs as with any model can be out by 5 or 6c a week or more out, last nights 12z was an extreme example of that but the overall pattern is cool to cold for the foreseeable, whether it’s day after day of 10, 12 or 14c it’s still really poor for the time of the year...

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    06Z ensembles are a wee bit better; at least the operational run is near the mean:👍

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

    Well, compared to how the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne 😉 looks for today!...it certainly improves longer term?..sure, there’s still some filth within the ensemble members but on balance....things should start to gradually improve as time goes on?!...fingers 🤞 👍 ☀️🍒 😉 
    524393D2-8EB7-477B-9F1E-8C0D0C3C1AD6.thumb.png.92637cb74cabb5ea104cf31ceaa92960.png39C0FD82-4390-4479-9902-244C2D75EF2F.thumb.png.c4835606d43da578ff211b7e79392f4b.png9B9DF7D1-7A80-4008-AF5E-C17FBB4720DD.thumb.png.54e2810b34e2e6d9f2497498ce3e0524.png 

    i feel bad for ur dad hope he gets better 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM ensembles suggesting some pushback from an eastern ridge in the 7-14 day period. It would either trap the trough over the UK, or get the UK into the warmer continental feed. Slightly favouring the latter option. Still, looks like the Greenland High will struggle to reform this month.

    image.thumb.png.8b3a78ce0d684cec918f26a6fa80dfc3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Well, compared to how the GEFS 6z mean / moyenne 😉 looks for today!...it certainly improves longer term?..sure, there’s still some filth within the ensemble members but on balance....things should start to gradually improve as time goes on?!...fingers 🤞 👍 ☀️🍒 😉 
    524393D2-8EB7-477B-9F1E-8C0D0C3C1AD6.thumb.png.92637cb74cabb5ea104cf31ceaa92960.png39C0FD82-4390-4479-9902-244C2D75EF2F.thumb.png.c4835606d43da578ff211b7e79392f4b.png9B9DF7D1-7A80-4008-AF5E-C17FBB4720DD.thumb.png.54e2810b34e2e6d9f2497498ce3e0524.png 

    mmm...a few days to use up as holiday this year and the last full week of May is tempting me.   More views of improvements like this might lead me to jump the gun and go for it! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    On the face of it, the GEFS 12z mean undergoes quite a transformation between now and mid month, it looks much more placid by mid May with an increasing chance of high pressure in the vicinity of the u k...position and orientation would be important in determining the surface conditions but I think any kind of pressure rise would be welcomed following this weeks bouts of unsettled weather...as ever, no guarantees but on balance it looks like a gradually improving outlook beyond this coming weekend, probably the best chance of a marked improvement would be further south but let’s see how things develop...and thanks milomolly 123. 

    71737DB1-EF12-457C-9E91-4D3B1EB9A3A8.thumb.png.efb74b1601aa8afc89f33daddec0f235.png5FF77AB8-CE49-4E7A-AF1A-B81C0F7EF778.thumb.png.8bb3f85191fa5934461a6df3621bce4b.pngE4467CA5-1D36-47E5-8308-192917525E20.thumb.png.82c5fb71bfe2280a10b893813b34e38a.png927B55E7-6C83-47DF-9B78-C2A78C945E6F.thumb.png.cc0b74595c1fdb5f6c074701e317f22f.png962B54B7-76AA-4B55-82DE-8E426B458BD0.thumb.png.4b29e75ae4025aeb50dbc1cbf48b3f3c.pngF8796429-1579-4DEE-906C-ED739E92E88C.thumb.png.c44c9dcc74299e5507c60db515df2d55.png7DDC4B55-CB13-413A-ABA9-3D9F9E7C53F8.thumb.png.45399bcb9fecc538d26a06b0c497ab01.pngFA1F59DB-A948-4352-B675-9DCC76E14F80.thumb.png.bdb4323a29cbfbe27b2252264875e6e9.png30736E11-C1CA-48E6-A95C-E8264ECF1100.thumb.png.f4937963fd8a180a48c28b4334f70e24.png11A6954B-5B77-4D2B-AF25-FA03204831A1.thumb.png.c16f11639e90dc4cf0ab34839cf4a3cb.png

     

    CD3F6134-5201-4668-AF76-9409915830BD.png

    75044F73-7211-4B0F-864D-7A57137D0C6D.png

    B71D5DA9-BFA6-4E4D-812B-AF09F59E56CC.png

    0929358B-BEF7-4244-9B02-7049808B6B2A.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Much as I would like the GFS to be right at T222:

    A0EB9742-13E7-434A-B1DC-4AB510C15A6D.thumb.png.e16b19647e6b70b7d1a23dc67a3c693b.png

    It is out on its own there, and the rest of the run goes off on one, so I think it is best to wait for other models to follow.  Seems a lot of uncertainty around at the moment.  Tentative signal for an improvement though at 10 day timescale, worth watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Pluming bad luck.....Almost....🤪

    image.thumb.png.379e0df6a908fecd3b4d1313ef69940f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Apologies, I was trying to edit my previous post but ran out of time..charts messed up they are...🙃 😹...but anyway, here’s a few more..hope I don’t mess these up too..could be a better second half of May???! 👍 ☀️ 😉 

    B67900C9-5EC6-445F-822A-E01E4D811BB0.thumb.jpeg.70a51e1d68ed479ff832013b8301fd16.jpegFBC90863-65AA-4E90-8291-EF08A6531485.thumb.png.916ddefa555a3c359fceb46f1b702bdc.png2C5E7012-D37D-4744-941B-B40CA98C319A.thumb.png.b8383dd9db9f2e945759758f46353421.png888076DC-1330-4462-90A4-1AA4CEEE015E.thumb.png.a185eb9616605e5cf2de3ca3874af3c1.pngC2BBF3F6-6016-49B9-B3C2-95BF0958A123.thumb.png.a640146dddf5bd46c3aef0c890ca9228.png0BCA871E-0989-419F-B24D-F635408C186B.thumb.png.377b56790026c3048c209efefcad5ee9.pngD6CD5C31-DBFD-4309-B0F2-57949776FC37.thumb.png.6d35b5e3d8571d54a6eaccd114b197fb.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM 12z run is utterly horrific and should come with a health warning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    And now for something completely different:😁

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The worst ECM op for a long time- atrocious. Surely an outlier?

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Strangely enough, I'm still not certain we've even got this weekend resolved. 

    I'll post the T+120 charts from GEM, JMA, ECM, GFS OP and UKMO

    image.thumb.png.506afd71ea242a34b11269d382617253.pngimage.thumb.png.d2abd4ced98f32a6ab1404cc62d9a737.pngimage.thumb.png.849ddf0f2fbf94c786b4826eea63f88e.pngimage.thumb.png.7ac90ae3ae6fa6bc55281e41edf6d597.pngimage.thumb.png.ec798fe2a6c58b15030ada1cdf1180b6.png

    JMA and ECM still most bullish about some warm air being advected from the south with the LP slowing to the west. JMA brings the +8 850s widely across southern and eastern Britain while for ECM and GEM it's basically London and points south east.

    With GFS OP and UKMO it's a complete miss with the +8 850 staying over the Continent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Posted (edited)

    Well..last May was the driest in England since 1896?? and very sunny too with lots of moorland fires but looking at the ECM 12z op and indeed other output,  it’s looking generally unsettled, worth noting there’s a glancing blow of warm humid air for the S / SE on Sunday from the main pulse of very warm air (plume) further E / SE...hopefully the longer term outlook will improve as the GEFS keeps hinting? fingers crossed 🤞 

    C843BF11-4FE4-4CCF-BE3A-6411C6622AAD.thumb.png.6a84fcb2bfe5271fedba9d381e9c2b6b.png40D19249-9B38-46D9-A591-39E9461D6F6A.thumb.png.1326fffae83f7a64a28455aafe2a7200.png83BBED27-C353-4DF8-9C69-CF5CF1FA2E11.thumb.jpeg.384ca8690ff5391c19cb253feaa013e0.jpeg

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Last May feels a distant memory, this one starting off on a complete opposite note, and at least in the reliable (next 7 days or so), the generally well below average spell we've been locked in for near 5 weeks continues, at least in the north, the south and east should see temps back to average even a bit above by the weekend, but looks a glancing feature and back to square one.

    Orientation of any high pressure build looks poorly place for an evolution to warm, can easily see heights building back westwards and further northely airflow as we move through middle of the month  - but I guess a settled spell with sunshine in mid May should feel very pleasant even if uppers remain below norm, and would be very welcome after what looks like being one of the coldest and possibly wettest first 12 days to May in a long time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters from the 12z:

    6FCE6E02-DA3C-4C54-B71E-C777D5B0DA2D.thumb.png.40dd5515d46d3c7625fc8437f87a8394.png71BA3AB5-81F6-4364-9D0E-6CEBA9AA0A65.thumb.png.38371bfa991f399350847f62c581f250.png

    On the earlier chart (T192-T240) there does seem to be a blocking high to our E/NE but not necessarily close enough to influence our weather in a positive way, although it might on clusters 3&4 possibly.  

    On the later chart (T264+) it is 27 big ridge/ 24 big trough!  More runs needed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Sigh, another day and another batch of models I’d wish my eyes had never seen. Both the GFS and GEM now anchor the low from the weekend over the uk for days on end. UKMO has the low going nowhere at T144hrs so cool weather looks like remaining firmly in charge. I’m not sure I can remember such a lengthy cool period, must been the longest such spell since summer 2012? 

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    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Sigh, another day and another batch of models I’d wish my eyes had never seen. Both the GFS and GEM now anchor the low from the weekend over the uk for days on end. UKMO has the low going nowhere at T144hrs so cool weather looks like remaining firmly in charge. I’m not sure I can remember such a lengthy cool period, must been the longest such spell since summer 2012? 

    Omg 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, Alderc said:

    Sigh, another day and another batch of models I’d wish my eyes had never seen. Both the GFS and GEM now anchor the low from the weekend over the uk for days on end. UKMO has the low going nowhere at T144hrs so cool weather looks like remaining firmly in charge. I’m not sure I can remember such a lengthy cool period, must been the longest such spell since summer 2012? 

    You ought to try viewing the predicted temperatures and the 850's , temps will be in the "average" range unlike the current conditions. The CET for summer 2012 was actually quite high due to overnight cloud cover, and you are forgetting the SSW events of  2013 and 2018 which really did produce a lengthy "cool" spell in spring. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM op run is also disappointing. Only good point is that the 850 temps recover and cut off the nagging cold feed of air. Temps around the mid teens and closer to where they should be. Sunday looks warm in places with 18/19c possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)
    14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I don’t want to raise hopes too much / mislead anyone but the GEFS 0z continues to hint at a much better second half / last third of May with more chance of high pressure and warmer conditions compared to the first half...however, there are still some unsettled members longer term so I’m cautiously optimistic / positive! 😉 ☀️ 🍒 

    E64BE7BE-4333-4F7D-9815-5D428812E290.thumb.png.a823c2eea8e580298fe735dba801e3d5.png

     

    Yes i think that the second half of May,while not brilliant will be an improvement on what we have been enduring. Gradual recovery of temps to somewhere near average and hopefully some sunnier periods in between the wetter periods. Also hopefully the elimination of frosts with the northerly flow finally cut off...

    image.thumb.png.a93bdc6711693056ad3a0f75b76d82ba.png

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Once again the 00Z operational run, is dragging itself along the bottom of the ensembles; I wonder if the new GFS has a cold bias:🤔🥶

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

     

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