Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Uncertainty]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

That gfs op  back end week 2 is well represented by the eps 12z mean and clusters 

It sure is!

 

Late on Both clusters go back to heights to the NW and downstream trough. There’s a vague idea on the GEFS too.

 

*maybe* some retrogression hints at day 10 on the GEM too. I doubt day 12 would be overly mild...

 

On the other hand the 18z is different again, with a low in the E Atlantic instead of a ridge  and has the W Russian high ridging over us still at day 11...

 

Not much of a match with the 8-14 NOAA?

 

Let’s see if the GFS ops and eps can find some consistency on this over the next few days. Then we can start talking surface conditions.

Regardless, the good news is the ECM failed to spoil things so we’re locked in for a dry and settled spell into next week. I’m sure the beer garden folk will happily raise a glass to that.

 

[Cambrian]

The 18z GFS op, like the 12z, is bringing in a breakdown of the high pressure from the south for next Sunday (+186h),  around 1016mb in the rain in the south of the UK. The rain really gets going more widely later in the afternoon over much of the UK and Ireland (+192h).

The ECM from 12z is having nothing to do with it, keeping the high pressure firmly in charge over the whole of the UK and Ireland, 1032-1036mb for the same time.

[Methuselah]

Hardly the most inspiring of GEFS temperature ensembles. But, anyway:

    

Mustn't crumble, eh?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

#teameuros! want GFS wrong here, hope has setup too far north

Edited April 11, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Jordan S]

Morning

Snow showers some heavy will be frequent for northern England this afternoon and a local covering is possible particularly if they become more organised and merge. Rain sleet and snow showers in areas south of here, although for most that do get any snow it will be a case of it falling but not settling and accumulating with sunshine in between them. 

An area of rain separated from a low to the northwest will move into parts of Wales then most likely into western and then into central or southern parts of England later tonight into tomorrow morning. It is a fairly small feature and most of the precipitation will probably be light though a chance some of it could be heavy, particularly for Wales where on high ground  there could be 2-5cm. A few other places may have a light covering of snow including to lower levels from this. Any that remains during tomorrow morning turning mostly to rain, weakening and clearing away by the afternoon though possibly a lot of cloud left over for these areas with showers in the southwest..

Temperatures now more likely remaining close to average for most from tuesday with high pressure over the whole country until thursday where it may drift slightly east, mostly dry for many including Scotland and northern Ireland although upto wednesday a few showers is a possibility in some places which is a slight change from previous updates. High pressure probably over much of the country into saturday the exception possibly being the northwest. Most probably remaining dry, a fair amount of sunshine but some areas may have occasional cloudier spells depending on the exact wind direction..

Gfs..

Edited April 11, 2021 by jordan smith

[damianslaw]

It's a predominantly settled outlook for the foreseeable, continuing the theme of the month as a whole so far, yes there has been some wintry precipitation about but we have had minimal frontal Atlantic activity and heavy bouts of rain..

Longer term, a signal perhaps that heights having migrated further east for a time will once again pull to the NW ushering in flow a generally northerly direction, as the Atlantic continues in it's typical annual slumber.

The new week will be milder than the notably cold one just gone, still likely to see frost but not as severe or widespread as this, but definitely a common feature under clear skies and light winds. 

Temperatures by mid week should climb back to average and under the sunshine it will feel very pleasant. 

Once tomorrow is out of the way, a good week for doing outside jobs, outside activity, preparing garden etc..this is a great time of year to do outside things generally, warming up but not the heat of summer, ideal conditions for a bit if mild exertion. The trees will be bursting into leaf after a bit of a delay past two weeks, the dandelions as well! 

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, Uncertainy said:

It sure is!

 

Late on Both clusters go back to heights to the NW and downstream trough. There’s a vague idea on the GEFS too.

 

*maybe* some retrogression hints at day 10 on the GEM too. I doubt day 12 would be overly mild...

 

On the other hand the 18z is different again, with a low in the E Atlantic instead of a ridge  and has the W Russian high ridging over us still at day 11...

 

Not much of a match with the 8-14 NOAA?

 

Let’s see if the GFS ops and eps can find some consistency on this over the next few days. Then we can start talking surface conditions.

Regardless, the good news is the ECM failed to spoil things so we’re locked in for a dry and settled spell into next week. I’m sure the beer garden folk will happily raise a glass to that.

 

NOAA at the weekends is pure naefs with no ec input 

this mornings extended eps are single cluster (so likely plenty of Shannon rather than the binary look of recent runs ) but the mean does push the mean ridge further  east (again in line with the gfs op .......) 

Edited April 11, 2021 by bluearmy

[minus10]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Hardly the most inspiring of GEFS temperature ensembles. But, anyway:

    

Mustn't crumble, eh?

It does seem that the current weather patten is very reluctant to warm up significantly with frosts going to be a continual problem. However as stated previously this is a good time to be doing work outside, particularly where jobs require 'physical' effort ...

 

[ChannelThunder]

Everything seems very blocked on the models this morning! No inspiration for you coldies or anyone hoping for some Spring warmth! A pretty dry and uninteresting week ahead by the looks of things! It looks like any fetch of warm southerlies is at the very least a good few weeks away.

[Frosty.]

So quiet in here today..ok, back up frosty..done that line already!..anyway, moving swiftly on, the Gfs 6z op is predominantly dominated by high pressure in one form or another..as for temperatures, that’s more problematic, to be frank, it’s a struggle to get far into double digits Celsius and there are some cold frosty nights for sure..but at least it can’t be called unsettled..can it!?   

Edited April 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well, this could go down as one of the coldest April’s in decades. 

Hoping that we see a turnaround when it matters during late May at least and into June. A cooler April over recent times however has not done too much harm for the prospects of warm summers. Hot April’s such as 2007 and 2011 have lead to remarkably bad summers, so no sleep lost at all! 

[Cambrian]

The GFS has now pleasingly dropped the notion of a little rainy spoiler for next Sunday and has now fallen in with the ECM, keeping it all well to the south over Spain, although it took it’s time to let go of the idea.

GFS op 18z yesterday                                                    0z today                                               6z today 

 

The ECM 0z has remained consistent with its maintenance of the high pressure throughout next weekend, although not quite so intense, a few millibars less over the UK, 1028-1032mb. Another great example of model convergence around the 7 day mark, with the two models now plumbing for similar looking cells at that time in terms of central pressure and being centred to our east over the North Sea or Scandinavia. 
 

ECM 0z

[Iceaxecrampon]

18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Well, this could go down as one of the coldest April’s in decades. 

Hoping that we see a turnaround when it matters during late May at least and into June. A cooler April over recent times however has not done too much harm for the prospects of warm summers. Hot April’s such as 2007 and 2011 have lead to remarkably bad summers, so no sleep lost at all! 

Yes - felt the cold up in Backbarrow on Wednesday - bitter.

As regards looking to a colder May  the law of averages say it can't be as cold as this all the time.

[Frosty.]

Wonderful post from Mr Frost...as always..superb!!..anyway..., just looking at the Gfs 6z op, retrogression even on the cusp of May?...what the hell!..anyway I agree with Mr Frost..it’s time for some warmth dammit all to hell..ps guys, don’t take it too seriously, there are serious things in life, like the health of loved ones..makes the weather seem trivial!  

 

Edited April 11, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Good summary! 

Another cold April day with parts of Scotland, NW/N/NE England, Midlands and Yorkshire waking up to 5/6 centimetres of settling snowfall. (Have seen higher totals confirmed)

Some of the pictures in the regional threads are incredible this morning! I never realised so many folk on here live in Narnia landscapes - beautiful scenes! 
Very impressive for the time of year.

Check out @shadowfax pictures in the NW England thread - stunning.

Snow/wintry showers breaking out inland again today.

16:00

 

As others have said that warmth signal (mid teens) has been watered down.

Charts below are not maximum temperature forecasts for the days in question.

Wednesday 15:00 snapshot:

 

Thursday 15:00 snapshot:

 

Frost risk into the end of next week: Friday 03:00

 

UKMO Saturday

 

ECM day ten:

That cold air is just hanging about like a bad smell now! I would rather be doing outdoor activities in high teens/low twenties! Not cutting about in a jacket with maximum temperatures of 13/14C in the UK right out until next Saturday at the very least! @damianslaw might be happy with that from reading his post above but no thanks - would rather be sunning myself on the beach with proper warm/hot weather! (Then I remember it is still only mid April and I actually live in Scotland! )
Someone wake me up when some proper warmth is forecast - current outlook is lots of sunshine, plenty of cloud at times, isolated showers throughout the UK and the highest temperature I can see forecast anywhere in the UK is 14C! That is looking right out until the end of next week! (Met Office/UKV - other models may vary. )

I love the cold/snow but it has been going on for months now - time for a warm up @MATTWOLVES 

All the best to you all - have a good Sunday!

Yes good post, not brilliant temperatures next week but it's small victories as far as I'm concerned- despite being underwhelming it's still better than what we've seen over the past few days. I would love a sunny 11C today.

The positive for me is that the GFS is still showing a gradual warm up towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

[Methuselah]

Gordon Bennett, today's GFS 06Z say it all:

Day 5: meh:               

Day 10: Bleurgh:       

Day 16: oh abc!         

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

NOAA at the weekends is pure naefs with no ec input 

this mornings extended eps are single cluster (so likely plenty of Shannon rather than the binary look of recent runs ) but the mean does push the mean ridge further  east (again in line with the gfs op .......) 

That's my gut feeling at the moment. There doesn't appear a simple route to retrogression by D8/D9, and when that's the case then often the high will correct east rather west, wouldn't you agree. Whilst at the moment it appears a flip-up between either a chilly cold northerly or an ever warmer UK High, if I had to bet right now I'd go for the latter. And of course it is becoming a tradition to end the month well above average

[Weather-history]

A 1031mb low on ECM

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hot April’s such as 2007 and 2011 have lead to remarkably bad summers, so no sleep lost at all! 

But the coolest April in the last 30 years (2012) led to the worst summer for many a year.....

Also 2016 was cool for a recent April and the following summer was neither here nor there...

Edited April 11, 2021 by Weather-history

[KTtom]

GFS deserves Kudos here, if as anticipated it is correct with a strong Scandinavian block next weekend, ECM and the Met were pinning their charts/forecast on a mainly unsettled period from next weekend..gfs was having none of it and constantly showing a Scandi block...going by recent trends alone, April and May have been very blocked so im not surprised by the Euros trending towards the gfs. The model gets a slating in winter but for me it is still the best from 144 to 240 hrs.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

A 1031mb low on ECM

Quite remarkable. Just 1mb difference, that must be near a record for the 'highest low pressure'...?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

These charts below for next Friday at 15:00 sum up the new week ahead - just can’t shake off those cold 850hPa temperatures!

 

ECM looks better in the South further ahead (temperatures wise) - 19th/20th of the month.

 

 

Does anyone kindly have the maximum temperatures for those charts? Roughly 15/16C? @Daniel* or @knocker maybe? 

Here are the three coldest April months of the last ten years for the UK. 

2012:

 

2013:

 

2016:

At this point we are heading for a below average April once again! You can never rule out a heatwave turning up though in the last ten days of the month! 
One to keep an eye on.

All the best to you all!

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

ECM looks better in the South further ahead (temperatures wise) - 19th/20th of the month.

 

 

Does anyone kindly have the maximum temperatures for those charts? Roughly 15/16C? @Daniel* or @knocker maybe? 

At this point we are heading for a below average April once again! You can never rule out a heatwave turning up though in the last ten days of the month! 
One to keep an eye on.

Yes about right but on Wednesday there’s keener flow off that North Sea and temps are cooler. We’re really struggling even to get average at this point. 

 

Mean temps are currently as much as 5C below average in Scotland when compared to monthly average. Widely 2-4C below normal, I think it would take a minor miracle (heatwave) to take this April above.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z:

You can clearly see the transfer of heights from Greenland to Scandi, and the link with the Azores at the end.  Very promising.  It isn’t going to be warm by any means, but for pub garden week, it will certainly be dry for most.  

[minus10]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z:

You can clearly see the transfer of heights from Greenland to Scandi, and the link with the Azores at the end.  Very promising.  It isn’t going to be warm by any means, but for pub garden week, it will certainly be dry for most.  

Yes it looks like HP all the way to day 10. Not warm though as you say Mike. Will have to rely on the increasing strength of the sun to provide any warmth, which, out of the wind is definately noticeable. 

However do not want this towards the end of April though on the gfs12z

This northerly signal keeps coming and going on gfs but as before is at bottom of pack in FI. Still awaiting signs of genuine warm up....