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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Yes please!     h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png   👍😁

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking 👀 at the GEFS 12z mean beyond next weeks unsettled cool crud...there’s an improvement..possibly even a marked improvement..the lows fill and pressure rises!?...P15 😯  stands out from the crowd but there are others worthy of praise too!...perhaps mid May will produce an early taste of summer?...but if it doesn’t, don’t shoot the messenger! 😉 ☀️ 🥵

    cheers 🍻 

    37A4972E-6012-4EC8-9BE4-B6A8CB734E0E.thumb.gif.71ecdddc305deda186c17fab4e91e81c.gif195829E5-DFA2-4034-B5A3-EB6FD12FB51C.thumb.png.a3e9aec66875bb5b52e59a9e75830bd4.png2641D5BB-EB34-47ED-A68D-0E7A1E1D57B9.thumb.png.0a3bf5ee6d9f376fd5e0cc77c4782da5.pngAEA7070B-9583-42C0-9485-18FC5D526AEC.thumb.png.05c1bf5c854b8c5402836487a59a4c15.png3BA10E94-C86C-4247-9F20-B25BEDEAE66B.thumb.png.4961db499d0dcbb84ca59c90485fc682.pngC58B8340-043B-4EBE-92A5-F2977BA60C4C.thumb.png.cfbbf07745517dfe63f398657daa2574.png81EC4217-9682-428B-B847-ECCD738C7319.thumb.png.8e6f69cbb2e8e8c0557083e7c03cbaee.png8D6FC621-724D-4E9C-9A8B-8A8D1441CA5B.thumb.png.0df0e3b68b655fd58c601a66198c9c44.png8CC101BF-CF80-4EAB-99C3-2E2C28555434.thumb.png.3f4312805e5ede1c9474704540629694.png256C5346-B8C6-4ADC-BFCC-F477F67E89CE.thumb.png.ac27689c83071d4414d02ba410fe2e15.pngD6FE8337-2E18-47A4-BE63-58FEE4354CD7.thumb.png.2bd004d6e529dd79e0653527fa6037b3.png34B31531-9C11-416A-80EC-16D940190BC9.thumb.png.1e2d38031460d2bcc5f3184d014ca456.png

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Looking 👀 at the GEFS 12z mean beyond next weeks unsettled cool crud...there’s an improvement..possibly even a marked improvement..the lows fill and pressure rises!?...P15 😯  stands out from the crowd but there are others worthy of praise too!...perhaps mid May will produce an early taste of summer?...but if it doesn’t, don’t shoot the messenger! 😉 ☀️ 🥵

    cheers 🍻 

    37A4972E-6012-4EC8-9BE4-B6A8CB734E0E.thumb.gif.71ecdddc305deda186c17fab4e91e81c.gif195829E5-DFA2-4034-B5A3-EB6FD12FB51C.thumb.png.a3e9aec66875bb5b52e59a9e75830bd4.png2641D5BB-EB34-47ED-A68D-0E7A1E1D57B9.thumb.png.0a3bf5ee6d9f376fd5e0cc77c4782da5.pngAEA7070B-9583-42C0-9485-18FC5D526AEC.thumb.png.05c1bf5c854b8c5402836487a59a4c15.png3BA10E94-C86C-4247-9F20-B25BEDEAE66B.thumb.png.4961db499d0dcbb84ca59c90485fc682.pngC58B8340-043B-4EBE-92A5-F2977BA60C4C.thumb.png.cfbbf07745517dfe63f398657daa2574.png81EC4217-9682-428B-B847-ECCD738C7319.thumb.png.8e6f69cbb2e8e8c0557083e7c03cbaee.png8D6FC621-724D-4E9C-9A8B-8A8D1441CA5B.thumb.png.0df0e3b68b655fd58c601a66198c9c44.png8CC101BF-CF80-4EAB-99C3-2E2C28555434.thumb.png.3f4312805e5ede1c9474704540629694.png256C5346-B8C6-4ADC-BFCC-F477F67E89CE.thumb.png.ac27689c83071d4414d02ba410fe2e15.pngD6FE8337-2E18-47A4-BE63-58FEE4354CD7.thumb.png.2bd004d6e529dd79e0653527fa6037b3.png34B31531-9C11-416A-80EC-16D940190BC9.thumb.png.1e2d38031460d2bcc5f3184d014ca456.png

     

    Indeed karl . . .  Just why anyone would prefer a continuation of airborne slush-deposits is beyond my ken!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Taking a look at tonight's mixed bag of nonsense known as the T+240 charts:

    image.thumb.png.2a842397c318d51bed12fae5ad716061.pngimage.thumb.png.fc5841ffbb12951c9bebefde00646c6a.pngimage.thumb.png.13a43d30a248c5e507c87df3e5ad28b0.pngimage.thumb.png.f84aef88edac1295e2e595dac5f64d80.pngimage.thumb.png.84a5320c23e582359d9b9a8edcba29fc.png

    GEM, JMA, GFS OP, ECM and GFS Control respectively.

    Again, no real evidence of settled or warmer conditions with LP very much in charge. Hints again of heights over eastern and south eastern Europe but all that does is trap the LP to the south west and as GFS OP shows, those hoping for a "plume" of S'ly air may end up out of luck as the trough ends up close to or over the British isles rather than to the west. GFS Control perhaps the best of the bunch with the LP more defined to the south and west - the problem is if the mid-Atlantic ridge builds in behind the LP, heights will fall over Europe and it'll be another E'ly. 

    I suspect our best hope will be our "old friend" the Azores HP finally getting towards us - more a guarantee of settled than warm or hot as the flow will be off the Atlantic. OP gets there and it looks decent for mid month but that's a long way off and in the short term we're all going to have to get used to something we've not seen for a while - rain - with a couple of quite vigorous little LP due to cross in the next seven days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    The cold continues, allbeit with some incursions from the Atlantic....

    h850t850eu-27.png

    ecmt850.120-6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

     

    Yeah,UKMO surely blown a fuse with its 12z output,especially when compared with GFS at just 72 hrs.😄

     

    UW72-21.thumb.GIF.e07384870cf11652c0eee95994a9b734.GIFgfs-0-72.thumb.png.bd75df573b29d909f40403cac8402854.png

    Been on the sauce innit!

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    Posted
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
  • Location: nr Yarmouth, Isle of Wight
    5 hours ago, minus10 said:

    Well confirmation from Met Office that it has been the frostiest April in 60 years with the same having had the third lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month since records began in 1884,

    image.thumb.png.d2c4aad51a33a217f525a68ec967eb95.png

    Us gardeners and growers have had to cope with a record high number of ground frosts with 22 days this month compared to an average of 12 days. 

    image.thumb.png.8b57cc3cc6f88a3bd52d5edfeb489ad2.png

    Also one of the driest Aprils on record.

    image.thumb.png.adda32ebd8ba9428adafe59fc6ce024e.png

    Hopefully all that is about to change within next week or so with a more mobile pattern setting in according to GFS 12z.  (UKMO notwithstanding)

    image.thumb.png.a4684eeaecfc57641cd5ed25af57fd31.pngimage.thumb.png.46030e0dd1ecf1770d90ba7b47ee5438.png

    I wonder what led to the area between Swindon and Oxford achieving its average rainfall? I don't recall any sustained rainfall being so localised during the month, unless it's purely from yesterday's frontal rainfall being much heavier/prolonged there? 🧐

    Edited by Lance M
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well..it’s May now, just one step away from summer!..and the Gfs 0z op ends on a high note 🎵 ☀️....I can’t and won’t even try to sugar coat next week, it’s a load of pish for early May but longer term the Gfs at least occasionally builds high pressure in and hopefully the second half of May will have a more summery feel?..ever the optimist! 🤞 😉

    9E40B107-6699-4FEA-AA9D-AB73363928E4.thumb.png.17ab0e2f6a65fdd078337c9cda892863.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
    7 hours ago, Lance M said:

    I wonder what led to the area between Swindon and Oxford achieving its average rainfall? I don't recall any sustained rainfall being so localised during the month, unless it's purely from yesterday's frontal rainfall being much heavier/prolonged there? 🧐

    Potentially from Saturday 10th when there were heavy bursts in a stationary front.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    For all those envisioning a a long spell of warm, settled weather, look away now!

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Same sheet, different month?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    For all those envisioning a a long spell of warm, settled weather, look away now!

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Same sheet, different month?😁

    Well Ed, all I can say is summer will arrive on June 1st..meteorolicalllly speaking..oops can’t spell this morning..🤓...as for the ECM 0z..well erm erm erm..at least it becomes less cold later?..at least the 850’s anyway! 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

    Well Ed, all I can say is summer will arrive on June 1st..meteorolicalllly speaking..oops can’t spell this morning..🤓...as for the ECM 0z..well erm erm erm..at least it becomes less cold later?..at least the 850’s anyway! 😉 

    Just as my mother used to say after having moved from London to here in the early sixties."Spring doesn"t happen in Scotland summer arrives on the 1st of June." She hated the cold springs up here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
    1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

    Well Ed, all I can say is summer will arrive on June 1st..meteorolicalllly speaking..oops can’t spell this morning..🤓...as for the ECM 0z..well erm erm erm..at least it becomes less cold later?..at least the 850’s anyway! 😉 

    Do not worry guys...

    Boris has it all sorted out now for after May the 17th...... 

    when he is letting us all meet up indoors!

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Posted (edited)
    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    For all those envisioning a a long spell of warm, settled weather, look away now!

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    Same sheet, different month?😁

    It looks warm from mid month onwards - typical now i lowered my cet guess by nearly a whole degree.

    Even hot is within the spread.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Well Ed, all I can say is summer will arrive on June 1st..meteorolicalllly speaking..oops can’t spell this morning..🤓...as for the ECM 0z..well erm erm erm..at least it becomes less cold later?..at least the 850’s anyway! 😉 

    We can just hope that the Gefs 06z are onto something with a trend in the second half of the run for higher pressure, hopefully in the right place to encourage some warmer air to the party..

    image.thumb.png.197960d4c5437ba495ff994a35d4b92c.png

    This corresponds with the diminishing of HP over Greenland as can be seen on the N Hemis view of gfs6z towards mid may. with the hp in a more favourable area . 

    image.thumb.png.ce7510bd4975980eca65df6d82a835ce.png

     

    I know that a lot can still go the way of the pear (or is it the Banana?🍌) ...however this is something that I feel (well at least hope) we will see as a growing trend as we go through May..🤞...Happy May day to you all...😀

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I must say that, after the incessant cold cack we've endured/enjoyed these past few weeks, this would feel positively balmy!🥱

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Barmy, innit?😁

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    It will be May 17th when the weather decides to warm up, just as everyone can meet indoors, I see that happening! Cruel really but oh well, maybe that will help to keep people outside lol

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    I must say that, after the incessant cold cack we've endured/enjoyed these past few weeks, this would feel positively balmy!🥱

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Barmy, innit?😁

    Looks like another beautiful spring weekend 😩

    387B84E2-56E0-473A-B0E4-2C412F30BC20.png

    38009DC0-90EB-4A6B-87DF-0AEB13E442E1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oo er, missus: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png    image.thumb.png.79a69733c1f7f9d25d61a9804a90015e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    I must say that, after the incessant cold cack we've endured/enjoyed these past few weeks, this would feel positively balmy!🥱

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Barmy, innit?😁

    A change is as good as....er....a change..🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted (edited)

    Not exactly an inspiring trend, any push of warmer 850's around the 7/8th comes with unsettled conditions before the ensembles from the 06Z again stat to group below average 8-11th May. I warm thereafter but so far out its not even worth talking about. 

    0105.thumb.png.9bef783144d9ba77eced570b4a6ff1dd.png

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro not quite as zonal as yesterday but does not back the GFS.

    image.thumb.png.36a77c064da972b55eac2b82f36bce3f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A chilly unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, temperatures significantly below the early May average, and some places could see a fair amount of rain in the next 10 days or so. Very short term - chilly showery airstream prevails, air frost likely once again overnight in sheltered spots, temps just about double figures for many, poor indeed.

    Bank Holiday Monday - oh dear all goes downhill, deep low developing and anchoring through centre of UK, heavy rain in north west parts, as it moves into the N Sea it pulls down a cold wind from the north, and this is the theme for the rest of the week, more chilly showery weather before another low sweeps in from the atlantic in time for next weekend.

    Longer term - signs we might see pressure build from the azores direction, but no obvious signal for a sustained drier spell, atlantic looks lively and we might enter into a more typical westerly pattern, something we haven't seen much this year.

     

     

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