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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
    11 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

    Flicking through the gfs 18z and it gave me a heart attack, temps up to 27 degrees lol, took me by surprise 

    Indeed a big change to the previous run. I think models are playing around with how low pressure will interact with us in about ten days time. Latest GFS run brings very warm southerly winds around the 9th/10th with 15C uppers & probably a shot at our first 30C & big thunderstorms. Yet checking the ECM, it instead shunts the low over us and drags in cold northeasterly winds & plenty of rain. I think it's safe to say a wet start to May, but could be anywhere between very cold, very warm or somewhere inbetween from the Atlantic. Watch this space...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Warmer air flooding in by Day 8, according to the GFS 00Z. Goodbye -5C uppers!?👍

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    It doesn’t last long and is accompanied by a humid airmass indicating lots of cloud and weakening frontal activity. The run ends poorly with HP developing well out west leaving the UK open to further polar maritimes. We are still a very long way off from sustained average temps let alone anything better.

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    On 27/04/2021 at 19:26, Britneyfan said:

     

    Edited by Alderc
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A stormy looking Bank holiday, With some welcome rain..

    viewimage.thumb.png.ae11c640a407d190ef2a239a7af75b5f.png73408254_viewimage(1).thumb.png.da490e882245ed8b73b574c0bd95e05b.png1939464971_viewimage(2).thumb.png.65ac19171890a4e13b39b542590c58c7.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don’t care that this warm up on the Gfs 0z operational is only brief!..it would feel great..and give a little taste of the long summer ahead!!!!!...so..I’m banking it anyway! 🏦 😉 😛 

    71CBF78E-372F-440B-8681-F3AB2010F173.thumb.png.0526493d83e49330e66974f2a39bb8c8.png29033D72-E464-4632-B66D-62CDADDCFC32.thumb.png.98bf3d752a9367400f0d2988ca935262.pngD001B662-6633-4DF5-820B-50A5BB563373.thumb.png.5be44310a4c88e376722743359de3d61.pngF7E8BF40-E57E-4E49-83DB-CF1D290BC7A9.thumb.png.22b81a5fd18202f1cc4a2145607660bc.pngAD7B176E-4FDD-4A72-9C95-117C536EC996.thumb.png.e189b83ebcad1efebbe508cc4cee4e29.png77A643BD-5304-49A8-AFB5-EBD384DD0B15.thumb.png.f5546e48805b3c7e35077850985a5418.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 00Z ensembles: our old friend Shannon Entropy rears its ugly head, once again . . . all good, if you ask me!🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

    I've no problem with maxes just shy of 15C, it's when they're just shy of 10C I don't much like it.👍

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I can’t believe that I missed last nights 18z!!!!...anyway, what can I say...these charts are a peach 🍑!!! 😯....having looked at recent output and even the current 0z Gfs...the idea of some kind of plume or at least warm up in the mid range can’t be ruled out?!!!...fingers crossed we catch a break from the predominantly cool spring so far!...Bank 👍 🤞 🥵☀️ 😉 🏦 

    EEE79168-5378-4EE1-B4B0-C3EB65EC9647.thumb.png.0848c776d540111ce00db4f90949c688.pngB8776AF6-8F56-46C5-8D07-7980EF723399.thumb.png.f5fd200421429d97a0d271e7339bc047.png998424E7-FA73-45CF-B4F7-80AAC30C0636.thumb.png.f1fb27a6812c7782e7f812fac6acff3c.png267CBFC3-C97F-44DB-A35E-7DC64ECB88E4.thumb.png.bc13328a3056660a8df2df3f9a7351c1.png83AAA05D-DCA3-4A14-A99F-2D720F521517.thumb.png.73dd00e455fa7e1257531e44b4ea57e5.png8200A0DB-259B-42F8-9EF3-B6893A522333.thumb.png.3aedf22e9ee877c39479d610ce23b418.pngE9FEB273-1123-4BAE-8F69-8A5291F25BD3.thumb.png.96de9660ff8c1eabe16c1bcbfd61edad.png70B8F255-EE36-4BC9-BD7A-866C7202A0E3.png.0a4d46b28c38fd0b3235d39a263d49dc.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Enjoy the rain folks! Could be flooding issues in the SW and W Wales

    image.thumb.png.c535f0dedde8f4f20bb5483d4d9d8116.png

    GFS ensembles have quite a few warmer members appearing around day 9/10 with an approaching low briefly scooping up some very warm air:

    image.thumb.png.f25c7f065a3eccb6620168bdab1b2082.pngimage.thumb.png.885b40dff5220e06544a44e913394196.png

    GEM has this glancing blow too:

    image.thumb.png.84ed956b9206806ee71d86424482f1cb.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    A brief plume is just about possible on these charts which return the UK to an average unsettled outlook for the first half of May

     

    814day.03.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    The Euro advertised the plume chance 2-3 days ago but binned it so it will be interesting to see if it reverts however today it sticks to its guns.

    https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    It doesn’t last long and is accompanied by a humid airmass indicating lots of cloud and weakening frontal activity. The run ends poorly with HP developing well out west leaving the UK open to further polar maritimes. We are still a very long way off from sustained average temps let alone anything better.

    Thanks Eeyore 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

    I can’t believe that I missed last nights 18z!!!!...anyway, what can I say...these charts are a peach 🍑!!! 😯....having looked at recent output and even the current 0z Gfs...the idea of some kind of plume or at least warm up in the mid range can’t be ruled out?!!!...fingers crossed we catch a break from the predominantly cool spring so far!...Bank 👍 🤞 🥵☀️ 😉 🏦 

    EEE79168-5378-4EE1-B4B0-C3EB65EC9647.thumb.png.0848c776d540111ce00db4f90949c688.pngB8776AF6-8F56-46C5-8D07-7980EF723399.thumb.png.f5fd200421429d97a0d271e7339bc047.png998424E7-FA73-45CF-B4F7-80AAC30C0636.thumb.png.f1fb27a6812c7782e7f812fac6acff3c.png267CBFC3-C97F-44DB-A35E-7DC64ECB88E4.thumb.png.bc13328a3056660a8df2df3f9a7351c1.png83AAA05D-DCA3-4A14-A99F-2D720F521517.thumb.png.73dd00e455fa7e1257531e44b4ea57e5.png8200A0DB-259B-42F8-9EF3-B6893A522333.thumb.png.3aedf22e9ee877c39479d610ce23b418.pngE9FEB273-1123-4BAE-8F69-8A5291F25BD3.thumb.png.96de9660ff8c1eabe16c1bcbfd61edad.png70B8F255-EE36-4BC9-BD7A-866C7202A0E3.png.0a4d46b28c38fd0b3235d39a263d49dc.png

     

    Unfortunately it was a *slight* Outlier 🤣

    BC487911-252D-49F1-810E-6A347FF22D44.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Unfortunately it was a *slight* Outlier 🤣

    BC487911-252D-49F1-810E-6A347FF22D44.png

    I don’t care about such a minor detail!!!!..lol..oops I better be careful..I’m talking to the police.. 😉 😯...sorry officer.. it’s a fair cop 👮‍♂️ ..hehe..anyway, there’s a chance of a plume according to the 0z output.. 😊 

    02459E89-6ACB-4CB3-9481-32F9FD237A06.thumb.png.5da8c07d623544a05cfa0aeff4813631.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Unfortunately it was a *slight* Outlier 🤣

    BC487911-252D-49F1-810E-6A347FF22D44.png

    I'll use what all the winter folks say....some say outlier, I say trend setter 😁

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Things moving in the right direction perhaps as we head towards the second week of May ( if you want to see the back of this cold air that is !)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Ever suspicious when people laud the 0z but say nothing of the 6z I took a look and as expected the 6z pretty much just has fronts forming an orderly qué throughout.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Ever suspicious when people laud the 0z but say nothing of the 6z I took a look and as expected the 6z pretty much just has fronts forming an orderly qué throughout.

    Its rubbish, basically wet, windy and cold. Even after the little hump in 850's over the BH weekend we get stuck under a cold pool next week with temps 7-12C north to south before more low pressure the following (basically the same as ECM's story from this morning), yes it gets warmer for one day on sunday but blink and you'll miss it. Doesn't end great either, again more blocking out west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, I've seen worse temperature ensembles than what today's 06Z has to offer:👍

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    what has happened to UKMO?

    image.thumb.png.f932e2f5b69bd8e212d98f263f118552.pngimage.thumb.png.37926912c65ca5275e5d5a285d0ec8d2.pngimage.thumb.png.bb04f27bba27c13652b511cce65fb56c.png

     

    Yeah,UKMO surely blown a fuse with its 12z output,especially when compared with GFS at just 72 hrs.😄

     

    UW72-21.thumb.GIF.e07384870cf11652c0eee95994a9b734.GIFgfs-0-72.thumb.png.bd75df573b29d909f40403cac8402854.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking beyond next weeks unsettled and rather cool conditions the GFS 12z operational improves, at least for a time with even a Scandi / Azores High link-up and some much healthier looking uppers (850’s) and some decent surface conditions to go with it! 👍 ☀️ 😊...as ever, glass half full here..maybe more than half full 🤔....maybe worth a trip to northern France..for the +16 uppers 🤔 ? 🇫🇷!!..ooh la la 😛 😉 

    FA798CDC-1261-4F3B-86BD-A712E56A90A7.thumb.png.711cc6faea90038bf93b7627f91ebca8.png993C5778-F788-4A1F-91C7-F244F85B3EDE.thumb.png.89846fe5b992775a42612a3cb8dc21bc.png 

     

    Edited by Jon Snow
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