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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters at T120-T168:

A917401B-8D98-407D-92FC-5A4895102A9E.thumb.png.7d1201b8aa88cf69134c084fa7ed89dd.png

Splitting hairs really, all’s good in the hood.

Next two timeframes there is only one cluster, which can mean one of two things:

1. There really is little uncertainty.

2. There is a lot of uncertainty, but no structure, and it tells us nothing

In either case we get the ECM ens member that is closest to the mean.  I think the first scenario might apply in this case to T192-T240 given the slow moving anticyclone.  I think the second scenario applies to the later period:

00ED69AA-6CCD-4DB4-9C8A-628D46CDDB1F.thumb.png.031ad35136bb8adaa9aa1a57671b1f8f.png9DA0995A-A9B8-45EF-940B-B38DFDA5AA02.thumb.png.f5d87674fcaaed93a9143a0065c70068.png

Note the representative member is different in these two plots, so I’d not pay much attention to the latter one.  

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Good to see the Azores high is coming to town but what are the chances of it intensifying and then stalling over us for a week or five? Everything this year has been very slow moving . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters at T120-T168:

A917401B-8D98-407D-92FC-5A4895102A9E.thumb.png.7d1201b8aa88cf69134c084fa7ed89dd.png

Splitting hairs really, all’s good in the hood.

Next two timeframes there is only one cluster, which can mean one of two things:

1. There really is little uncertainty.

2. There is a lot of uncertainty, but no structure, and it tells us nothing

In either case we get the ECM ens member that is closest to the mean.  I think the first scenario might apply in this case to T192-T240 given the slow moving anticyclone.  I think the second scenario applies to the later period:

00ED69AA-6CCD-4DB4-9C8A-628D46CDDB1F.thumb.png.031ad35136bb8adaa9aa1a57671b1f8f.png9DA0995A-A9B8-45EF-940B-B38DFDA5AA02.thumb.png.f5d87674fcaaed93a9143a0065c70068.png

Note the representative member is different in these two plots, so I’d not pay much attention to the latter one.  


I think one cluster, is on this occasion,  reasonable ……☀️

image.thumb.png.78b0f458e7e6fa5a707c11474fef6e6d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Some increasingly good models tonight. Still a *real* risk of the HP ending up a touch too far north and bringing in an easterly/undercut LP threat, particularly for the south/east, especially given that has been a very strong pattern trend over the last 3 weeks. Its not something that will probably be flagged up too clearly at this range on the ensembles as its a relatively minor adjustment in the macro pattern to bring that threat into play.

With that being said, taken at face value the models suggests some possibly lovely summer weather, particularly in the afternoon and also particularly further west you go. Could quite easily see 28-30c from such a set-up at this time of year. Probably cloudier further south/east in the mornings but even here I'd imagine the cloud would burn off pretty well if the 12z/18z suite are correct.

@Mike Poole I think its no.1 mate, the broad pattern looks pretty solid, but like we often see in this country it wouldn't need much of a change to go from sunny and pretty hot to a pattern where significant parts of the country are a little above average but with lots of cloud. 

At the very least it looks above average though for most coming up, with perhaps the possible exception of the far eastern counties...maybe...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

More data, more heat?   GFS 18z, T144, T168:

730DDF49-1C9D-45A1-97C2-F85D6D5E19B8.thumb.png.475c15b11103352ac44b63a2bb7cb38a.png4BC83002-235A-4623-9D98-35712943B6A5.thumb.png.1ab9befba36b5fe8c4168d26c33e894d.png

Variations within an envelope of uncertainty or a positive move towards a UK hot spell - time will tell on that, but it is a good run…

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I like the pub run at T216:

879D4697-7189-4591-8C2E-6A3939788D32.thumb.png.8449a873bff30b21cfc0f3c7b32daa0c.pngEEA669B6-7E12-4B86-82C0-6FC725F8C25E.thumb.png.ba917aed8647c3a854340f5fdb8e7ecf.png

In high summer, heat can quickly build from this sort of scenario, and it can reload too…if you don’t like heat, look away now!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I like the pub run at T216:

879D4697-7189-4591-8C2E-6A3939788D32.thumb.png.8449a873bff30b21cfc0f3c7b32daa0c.pngEEA669B6-7E12-4B86-82C0-6FC725F8C25E.thumb.png.ba917aed8647c3a854340f5fdb8e7ecf.png

In high summer, heat can quickly build from this sort of scenario, and it can reload too…if you don’t like heat, look away now!

Should the 18z GFS happen we'd have a realistic shot at 30c come the 19-21st period.

Hopefully it can become a reloading pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

Gfs 18z rolling out and its an absolute belter of a run ☀️.  Its high pressure and home grown heat right all the way to the end. Could end up being one of those classic hot spells such as 2013 and 1983, and giving the July CET a potential boost if this one is to verify. 

 

belter.png

heat   1983.png

Edited by 38.7°C
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Well after last nights great output I’m going to try and keep calm until I see ECM
 

Both GFS and GEM has high pressure completely capitulating after just a couple of days bring us back varying degrees of trough hell. 
 

From next Saturday (GEM similar) 

6A8C35F8-7435-4108-9485-BBA635539C0F.thumb.png.9724ff3e11fbf3e9f620e78eb5366e81.png

To this three days later

GFS 

B3F20FDC-4ED2-4AE3-949B-8FCA9A799A0C.thumb.png.2ba58b9396613db738b5496b5a918d57.png

GEM - it’s actually even worse

83EF8729-CF2C-4391-9AD4-094C10705C57.thumb.png.34561a542b7b2c08bc0a6d8138d9b453.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There will always be variations with the operational runs, especially in low res beyond T+192 hours...BUT the latest GEFS 0z mean covering mid / late July, on the face of it, says summery, for most of the u k!... ☀️....there’s a change on the way!  

068EE87D-314D-4E7D-98DE-002C62AB46B5.thumb.png.515d84feef8872cbb629cfd32898d0b2.png09967ECB-4D56-40EE-A45D-5C794630E69E.thumb.png.782f2881b62f222262fdf88b346095f3.pngF349E010-C609-454F-88CF-3329A55814D1.thumb.png.c987bd52e5ac382648bd837f2e1e5fa1.png9FA5E109-4F73-43E1-92F7-5F9CA3D5E485.thumb.png.ea983f3a7de101a7ca183249f1bd82fb.png3273B322-7A3F-4723-9D91-BA3322BB9DB1.thumb.png.7ad03198686938fbb5bd8b494abcc9f8.pngAF6F7DD0-5B49-4930-97B4-2173AE820CC8.thumb.png.cd611894a6754e7555d97cbb8547e7df.png6503B55A-0662-417E-9631-075A4FBBA862.thumb.png.39025d84b068cbd70bfc296adefa389e.png9F0CA4CF-D8D0-4D85-9C15-AA4DF8F58EBA.thumb.png.376debda4a64850f5e93ddcaa12ff92f.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Phew, toys just about remaining in the pram! Thank goodness for ECM
 

9C9A7B04-7FB4-408F-948C-86ABF28AFB62.thumb.png.2edce3ba2238f9aca236d8bdcccf1682.png

Thank god, the others are decidedly dodgy today! GFS and GEM are blink and miss it affairs, hopefully far too progressive (GFS big unsettled outlier this morning). ECM has been resolute in building a strong high in.

image.thumb.png.52e9121d6c49bd32a8043cbcbc55d292.png

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On the face of it pleasantly warm at day 10 on ECM
 

327C3F85-A829-4E35-A9ED-1A779FDF456D.thumb.png.62239efb7c0b174e298f07c4832729bb.png

995EBA8F-0BD4-4B2D-AA80-7CE85A5D3993.thumb.png.bdad2d72b12f3497f96b9a0b77b209b4.png

 

However looking at the detail, there’s a massive undercut on the ECM right across the south and east through weekend. 

Sunday 

36D706FC-827C-4AF3-BACA-494C1B544C06.thumb.jpeg.2ada0d0e7756dbdcfdaa9701a0c4b2da.jpeg
Monday

91F26DCD-C369-44D9-B137-F3857EB3F536.thumb.jpeg.21952ea2478dd48e3bb6cdda2bb9afdc.jpeg

Still lots of potential but the surface output is pretty pants this morning on the Ops runs but fortunately the GFS Ops is very much in cooler end of the ensembles, which are on the whole extremely positive (in fact probably the best of summer) 

1948362689_gfs-bournemouth-gb-505n23.thumb.jpeg.b5ce360069c4b828d7f4b3c96fd9e1b5.jpeg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Probably best to just wait a couple more days before we decide what the end of next week may hold. Quite a bit of disagreement in the models which is always a trouble maker. Temps and day to day conditions all guesswork at the moment!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I agree it's pointless trying to look at the detail at the surface a week ahead.

Also the ECM and GFS are showing 2 very contrasting scenarios for the weekend and beyond. The GFS has a  weaker area of high pressure this morning but it would be better in the short term nationwide, with a very warm to hot weekend for many but then gets flattened very quickly (very suspicious).

There are big differences well within the reliable timeframe even- the GFS makes very little of that shallow trough over the continent whereas the ECM takes a lot longer to clear it, which affects the position of the high as it moves across the UK.

Fair to say high pressure looks nailed on though.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Probably best to just wait a couple more days before we decide what the end of next week may hold. Quite a bit of disagreement in the models which is always a trouble maker. Temps and day to day conditions all guesswork at the moment!

Wise words ..

Let's get High pressure into the reliable,small shifts in pressure positioning can result in big regional variations.

Certainly Ireland looks very well placed initially at least, Western Britain generally looks warm by later next week.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, this morning's GFS 00Z is encouraging. And, as for the possibility of undercuts at Day 10, who cares? And, what's more? Who even knows? It's nae as though any of those predictions even verify?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, anyway, as the GEFS ensembles show, the operational and control runs have eloped into Cold Outlier Land . . . Don't they make a lovely couple!:drunk-emoji:

t850Suffolk.png    t2mSuffolk.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Seeing the Express quoted Netweather as forecasting a "major heatwave" from 19th July onwards was a bit of a surprise - however, if they are reading this thread, they can use this chart as a bit of ammunition - high pressure dead over the UK, this should turn out hot if we can avoid a potent north sea drift 

Screenshot_20210710-091941.thumb.png.2662152f10c31570c7d97204f76c2908.png

 

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