Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

BBC weather month aheads latest update is suggesting a long period of settled weather could be likely due to tropical rainfall amomilies around Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and helping to extend the Azores through the UK before it heads of towards Russia .  

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T192:

Agreement with the earlier consensus.  The starting pistol on summer 2021 has now finally been fired…

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T192:

Agreement with the earlier consensus.  The starting pistol on summer 2021 has now finally been fired…

Been nervous to say it but half a chance of reasonably hot weather by the end of next week? Not totally sold on it, still a little time left for it to flatten a bit but my confidence levels are growing.

[mb018538]

Looking good on the UKMO run! Western areas warmest here as the high is centred close to Ireland.

GFS is actually a bit dodgy and allows a feature to slide down, and GEM is quite similar too....before ending up with another upper low stuck over us, because we clearly haven't had enough of those recently:





 

[Frosty.]

Although nothing is certain, apart from death and taxes..and England winning the ️ final on Sunday of course!!!! ...the GEFS 0z mean is looking more summery during mid / late July generally speaking!...so, this could be a month of two halves.. ..perhaps with some extra time and penalties thrown in!  

 

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking good on the UKMO run! Western areas warmest here as the high is centred close to Ireland.

GFS is actually a bit dodgy and allows a feature to slide down, and GEM is quite similar too....before ending up with another upper low stuck over us, because we clearly haven't had enough of those recently:





 

Lol high pressure was nice while it lasted in the 8day range. That’s exactly how this weekend started and again until the high pressure is building over us and these small trough features are rescaled I have almost zero confidence to believe we are entering a more extended settled spell. 

[Methuselah]

What to make of this morning's GFS 00Z? But, I get the suspicion (I hope!) that the ensembles, when they arrive, will show the operational run running somewhere close to the bottom rung:

    

    

    

Anywho, I'll be  off to the farm, very soon; another day of gradual sun-tanning awaits!

[sheikhy]

Ukmo 00zz continues on from the 12z yesterday which is very good news!!but wtf where did this ecm come out from!!!!did not expect it to look even close to this good!!best out of the top 3 up to 168 hours in terms of sun and high more over us!!!very warm to boot as well!

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol high pressure was nice while it lasted in the 8day range. That’s exactly how this weekend started and again until the high pressure is building over us and these small trough features are rescaled I have almost zero confidence to believe we are entering a more extended settled spell. 

I don't think it'll be a particularly extended settled spell anyway to be honest!

ECM is a belter today though, especially in the west. A bit of cooler air coming in off the North sea curbing temps in the east:

Edited July 9, 2021 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

ECM!!!

[northwestsnow]

Gorgeous ECM 00Z this morning...

Warm,and getting warmer.

What a fab summer this is turning out to be locally ...

168hrs..

[sheikhy]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gorgeous ECM 00Z this morning...

Warm,and getting warmer.

What a fab summer this is turning out to be locally ...

168hrs..

Mate im in shock man!!!i didnt expect this from the ecm especially with our luck lately and after yesterdays 12z!!!looks amazing!!!no where near as much rain between sunday and tuesday as well on this run!!

[Scorcher]

34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I don't think it'll be a particularly extended settled spell anyway to be honest!

Based on what? An outlier from the GFS?

I actually think things are beginning to look very good for a fairly prolonged spell of settled weather.

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Based on what? An outlier from the GFS?

I actually think things are beginning to look very good for a fairly prolonged spell of settled weather.

Definitely not what the GFS says! This is the best ECM clusters we've seen for ages though - 100% on high pressure day 8-10:




Depends what we call prolonged I guess. I think it'll stay good or reasonably good for a couple of weeks until the end of July before August isn't great. Looks like we are heading back into Nina, and convection will just stick over the Indian Ocean once this MJO passage cycles through. Never a great combo for a good month of UK weather.



Just my tuppence worth though. Very happy to be wrong, last thing I want is another dreadful August!

[johnholmes]

Friday 500 mb check (9 July 2021)

Not kept any charts although I have kept an eye on them each day. The last charts I filed were Monday, leading to this last sentence

Overall a suggestion of a nw-se split with most weather for the nw and the se the least, temps about or a bit above average on the whole. ? whether any surface ridging will occur in this time frame but wait for a couple of days to see how the outputs develop. Certainly not a wash out that is commented on by some in Net Wx.

So what do they show now?

Ec=The main feature is the marked trough around 30W, on Monday it was a good deal further west with ridging out from the Azores into the uk. Today the ridge is over central uk and east into s’ern Scandinavia/ne Europe

Noaa=This also has the main trough around 30W and, as EC, a flow s of w into the UK. This flow continues wall beyond n Norway with no actual contour ridge. However, there is a +ve signal (about 120 Dm maximum) from central UK out towards s’ern Norway/ne Europe. This change from what is showed on Monday has been a gradual one over the intervening days. This tends to lend belief that it is ‘real’. The 8-14 has not much direct similarity but this is often the case when the 6-10 first picks up a seemingly realistic signal. If it still has not picked this up by the Sunday output it may well suggest the ridging suggested by EC and NOAA 6-10 is a short lasting one?

Just where any surface high will develop is unclear, possibly pretty much over the UK. In any case our ‘summer monsoon’ should abate with drier weather for many areas and some warmth also, possibly even heat for s’ern parts at times in the 6-10 day period. Mind you here the afternoon temperatures have been around or above average much of this month.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Guest]

ECM looked decent although those in the east wouldn’t be too happy with the dreaded easterly undercut coming into play for a few days. Still decent enough here.

[Man With Beard]

1025mb mean high for D8 - pretty good

[summer blizzard]

NOAA discussion of most interest for me. For days 6-10 they ignore the GFS operational and go with a blend of the GFS ensemble mean and Euro operational. The reverse is true for the day 8-14 outlook where they punt on the operational GFS and Euro ensemble mean.

 

[mb018538]

13 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

1025mb mean high for D8 - pretty good

Looking good @Man Without Beard



Ok - the OP run was very much on the warm side, but the mean at day 8 rises above 10c anyway, and it's a nice upward trend. A bit of actual warmth isn't too far away now. Devil will be in the detail of course.

[mushymanrob]

34 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM looked decent although those in the east wouldn’t be too happy with the dreaded easterly undercut coming into play for a few days. Still decent enough here.

trust you, oh little ray of sunshine, to find something negative to post on what is an increasing trend towards warmer drier and more summery conditions.

[mb018538]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

trust you, oh little ray of sunshine, to find something negative to post on what is an increasing trend towards warmer drier and more summery conditions.

To be fair to Chris - it's not totally untrue based on the ECM op run this morning.



Don't think the folks down that eastern flank would be too impressed with temps around 16c in the afternoon!  All conjecture at this stage really. Hopefully it'll settle nice and centrally so that everyone feels the benefit! The trend as you say is the best it's been since early to mid June.
 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, mb018538 said:

To be fair to Chris - it's not totally untrue based on the ECM op run this morning.



Don't think the folks down that eastern flank would be too impressed with temps around 16c in the afternoon!  All conjecture at this stage really. Hopefully it'll settle nice and centrally so that everyone feels the benefit! The trend as you say is the best it's been since early to mid June.
 

Aye, all about location, looks vile here on the EC, cold mornings with sea mist, take that though over rain

[sheikhy]

Welcome to the party gfs 06z!!hot sunny high over the uk at 174 hours!!!

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Welcome to the party gfs 06z!!hot sunny high over the uk at 174 hours!!!

Looks decent @sheikhy

Temps widely into the mid 20s. Probably ideal temps for most people, not excessively hot:

Edited July 9, 2021 by mb018538

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

trust you, oh little ray of sunshine, to find something negative to post on what is an increasing trend towards warmer drier and more summery conditions.

Is my post anyway inaccurate? I said on the whole it was a decent run!