Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is a stunner.

I aint gona lie but im actually kinda happy with the charts this morning lol!!especially ecm!it shoves that little troughy feature to south and west of the uk between 72 and 144 hours compared to yesterdays 12z where it had that slack low slap bang over the uk!!its a warm run throughout and a few showers and thunderstorms between sunday and tuesday and then high pressure build in!!ukmo not bad as well!!

[mb018538]

We're there by Saturday.

Looks like Thursday next week is the date to lock in where high pressure finally makes the breakthrough. Let's now see this stay consistent on the models over the rest of this week.

[mb018538]

Heaven forbid - temps up to 25c on Thursday!

[Methuselah]

Not a bad GFS 00Z, this morning; but, as many a similar prognostication has gone wrong this summer, I'm thinking a 'wait and see' approach might be best?

    

    

    

Nice to see the GEFS ensemble mean, operational and controls running so closely together -- not that that came to anything, last time I highlighted it!

   

 

[Timmytour]

A friend is staying in the Lake District and sending me pictures of where she is staying......the sky looks a funny kind of colour!!

Meanwhile, back here where it's been consistently grey, it's a reminder to me that some parts of the UK are having a decent July so far. And even here where it's been consistently gloomy of late to the degree where I am having to put on the light to start working, it certainly hasn't been that cold....walked back from the pub last night with no need of a jumper.  I remember plenty of Julys where that would not be the case.

I see there is a prospect of change to something better (for us down here) in the 8-10 day frame..... no change there because that's been a consistent signal for that time-frame without unfortunately coming any nearer. But I'm more hopeful that this time it will come to fruition because of St Swithin's Day. I know it's just folklore, but such folklore usually arises out of weather patterns that are often established, so the timing on this occasion looks promising!  

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

A friend is staying in the Lake District and sending me pictures of where she is staying......the sky looks a funny kind of colour!!

Meanwhile, back here where it's been consistently grey, it's a reminder to me that some parts of the UK are having a decent July so far. And even here where it's been consistently gloomy of late to the degree where I am having to put on the light to start working, it certainly hasn't been that cold....walked back from the pub last night with no need of a jumper.  I remember plenty of Julys where that would not be the case.

I see there is a prospect of change to something better (for us down here) in the 8-10 day frame..... no change there because that's been a consistent signal for that time-frame without unfortunately coming any nearer. But I'm more hopeful that this time it will come to fruition because of St Swithin's Day. I know it's just folklore, but such folklore usually arises out of weather patterns that are often established, so the timing on this occasion looks promising!  

What's got me this summer is just the number of sunless days. We've had so many days where the sky is just 8/8 cloud cover, today being another one. A bit dpressing when you get enough days without any sun during winter.

[minus10]

Interestingly the warmer air is again seen arriving from the north east on the ecm 0z. Just how that translates on the ground though with the airflow in that direction...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've seen the future I've read the tea bags...and I can tell you things begin to improve from around mid next week! Some folk may feel hesitant after a lengthy unsettled spell,but that's to be expected.. all things come to an end,good or bad! Promising ECM output thus morning...now let's bring it home folks...the sunshine and the football..I'll get the beers in..

[mountain shadow]

42 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I've seen the future I've read the tea bags...and I can tell you things begin to improve from around mid next week! Some folk may feel hesitant after a lengthy unsettled spell,but that's to be expected.. all things come to an end,good or bad! Promising ECM output thus morning...now let's bring it home folks...the sunshine and the football..I'll get the beers in..

GFS 6z says nope.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 6z says nope.

4 runs a day and 4 different outcomes..surely Exeter can't be this wrong at such a close stage! I've got a strong feeling that 6z op run won't be sitting well within the mean...

[Eagle Eye]

Morning all

Haven't commented here in a while because of the madness of some of the model runs making it very hard to evenn come up with a trend but I finally have an incling that the unsettled nature of the Summer so far is going to stop for the end of the Euros.

Here's what I've noticed on the recent runs

00Z Run

06Z Run

This is beggining to look good as a trend especially for thunderstorm lovers as the latest runs are beggining to look much better

00Z Run

06Z Run

CAPE

Jet Stream

I suspect that an import could be within all of this but with it being at day 10 we will have to wait a few days before it becomes more than just a trend.

Netweather's GFS

However don't take my word as exact, this is way too far out for any details.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Plenty of ensembles bringing a change in fortunes and much better conditions.. I had to cheer myself up as I'm doing the 3rd act from singing in the rain here....the conditions are that bad! 

[Singularity]

 

Though we're still taking at least a week from now, the EPS clusters offer some encouragement for a high pressure build from the Azores mid-late next week.

Key to this is the development of a broader trough in the Greenland-Iceland area. The big ridge over NE Canada possibly helps out too, by encouraging the polar jet to dig down toward the Azores a little, 'squeezing' the Azores High toward north-western Europe.

While I see this being tied to climbing AAM, I'm no longer sure that it in turn entirely connects to an active MJO propagating east.

Instead, we seem to have a strong standing wave in place, with anomalously strong westerly winds centred around 90 degrees east; eastern Indian Ocean / western Indonesia. Since that really kicked off a few days ago, frictional torques (FTs) have trended toward neutral, possibly as the focal point of the westerly anomaly shifted east a little.

It appears those have jumped back west a tad today but are expected to return a little east in the week ahead. Perhaps, then, we'll observe a brief stall in the FT rise, followed by a climb into positive territory next week, with AAM following suit.

  

It's interesting to me that this is possible despite a vast swathe of anomalously strong trade winds over the tropical Pacific. The precise location of anomalously westerly winds is clearly of great importance.

The MJO may yet factor in to some extent. I don't think the forecast models are doing a good job with it at the moment - in the past few days it has propagated further east than any of them predicted. The spatial forecast on Mike Ventrice's website continues to show a distinct MJO propagation, albeit not very strong as it moves into Pacific territory.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Singularity
More MJO

[Methuselah]

And here's the UK Met's take on what the models are suggesting:

And now for something completely not very different: It's . . . the GFS 06Z:

    

    

    

And the Man from Del Monte, he say . . . What does he say!

   

 

[johnholmes]

I would recommend everyone to watch and listen to it. One of the very best explanations of how the weather develops in my view. That as an ex senior forecaster with UK Met myself. Perhaps I might start to watch these outputs more regularly!

 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I would recommend everyone to watch and listen to it. One of the very best explanations of how the weather develops in my view. That as an ex senior forecaster with UK Met myself. Perhaps I might start to watch these outputs more regularly!

 

I do like really like the way it’s explained, super informative. The best bit IMO is the probabilistic pressure patterns, shows exactly what we’ve all seen in the week or so with the likely influence of HP effectively being nudged out about a day for each day that actually passes! 

[northwestsnow]

First signs on UKMO 144 of High pressure moving in..

 

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

First signs on UKMO 144 of High pressure moving in..

 

Shame the GFS is terrible. Flat as a pancake by the end of next week - though some ridging does make it through eventually. Think we’re gonna have to wait a couple of days longer for this one to get sorted…

Edited July 7, 2021 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+291: Does the disappearance of the Azores HP open the way for a Spanish plume?

    

Next week, same time, same channel?

[stodge]

Evening all

The 12Z output still rolling out so these are, by nature, snap observations.

I don't see great heat but I do see a transition to something warmer and more settled but we're still a week away from that now. As @Singularity states so presciently above, we're finally getting that little nudge to allow the Azores HP to ridge in instead of the LP dropping SE across the British Isles.

The airflow will be off the Atlantic so warm and pleasantly so but not the heat and humidity of a plume at this time. 

JMA this morning offered the Azores HP (or a significant part of it) transiting NE into Scandinavia (if only it were January etc) and that's what we'll need to draw in the hotter air. GEM this evening shows what could happen if the Azores HP push is too tentative - the LP sits close to the east coast and we end up with a cool NW'ly.

[mb018538]

 

ECM leading the way with a cracking run. High pressure in as early as Thursday. Outlier….trend setter? Who knows yet. Too much uncertainty.

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty decent ECM with the low clearing to more of a north westerly that is actually quite warm. Thereafter high pressure builds over the U.K. However the developments at day 5/6 still risk another north easterly setting up of low pressure stalls to close to the east.

[bluearmy]

 

days 8-9, still a large cluster carrying the upper trough into the south of the U.K. ………still much to play for to break out of the pattern ……….

[ANYWEATHER]

The Phantom High is back on tonight from the Ecm, so Summer is just around the corner, better get the sun hat ,shades and the deck chairs out!

[minus10]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Phantom High is back on tonight from the Ecm, so Summer is just around the corner, better get the sun hat ,shades and the deck chairs out!

If England can do it so can the British summer. Its coming home. What a stressful match , almost as stressful as waiting for thunderstorms or snow!!