Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[rwtwm]

2 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM clusters reaching mid July now. This is what I call a "who knows what" set of clusters. Perhaps slightly in favour of better weather over the south, but most ensembles clearly not promise a banishing of the Atlantic for a very long time 

 

That's more of a shrug than the single cluster approach. One third each for each of the three standard UK options. I'm thinking tea leaves might be the way forward.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It looks like a gradual improvement on the 6Z mean...unsettled start to the week for sure before things hopefully settle down...perhaps early signs of a more traditional NW/SE split as we move further afield! Bit i would say at this stage perhaps the areas that have faired worse so far this Summer,gradually become more stable with time...with those towards the NW of the UK slowly becoming less settled as Lower Heights anchor to the Iceland area with a more traditional theme.

Have a great day....up the lads.

Edited July 3, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

I can see a good chance of summery weather returning strongly, at least to southern u k looking at the GEFS 6z following next weeks blip..I particularly like P23..pretty close to my idea of Shangri-La  ..  !..as I said, at worse the longer term signal is a typical north / south split but that doesn’t preclude a nationwide very warm / hot spell further into July..I agree with Matt about the gradually improving mean!!!

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

54 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I can see a good chance of summery weather returning strongly, at least to southern u k looking at the GEFS 6z following next weeks blip..I particularly like P23..pretty close to my idea of Shangri-La  ..  !..as I said, at worse the longer term signal is a typical north / south split but that doesn’t preclude a nationwide very warm / hot spell further into July..I agree with Matt about the gradually improving mean!!!

 

 

Yes mate some positive ensembles and an equally encourage mean today! Just noticed the Exter update is looking very encouraging,not just for increased dry conditions,but also increasing Heat towards the South! Perhaps the first signs of a trending up of angular momentum...would be rather spectacular if this were to bring about a warm and settled August...Good God..its so long overdue! But I've felt for some time this Summer would prove to be backloaded...so let's just see how this plays out.

Edited July 3, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[davehsug]

Beginning to become very concerned about the chances of anything properly summery. I notice the increased use of the ultimate straw-clutch phrase, at any time of year  "It could be worse", usually uttered just before it gets worse.

[mb018538]

UKMO day 7….another upper low plonked over the UK!

[Methuselah]

Day 15, and the GFS 12Z keeps the heat pinned-down firmly in Spain . . . I think I'd prefer a sunny mid-twenties, anyway!

     

Possibly, perhaps, maybe!

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO day 7….another upper low plonked over the UK!

Come on weather, please even if Sunday the 11th is warm and sunny!!  

[Cambrian]

Nice little summer low to break up some good periods of broadly usable weather. Approaches from the southwest Monday into Tuesday, with some heavy rain into the West Country.

  

Then pivots and elongates, lying from Wales to Northern England during Tuesday morning.  

   

Heaviest and most persistent rain along that trough, still around at lunchtime, backed up by ECMWF CAPE - good bit of lift over East Anglia too. 

 

 

I’ve noticed the GFS over-egging the rainfall amounts at times, but this could bring an inch of rain to parts by the time it’s done. 

The football has been really enjoyable to follow, it’s been a great tournament. I’m obviously not an Englishman, but best of luck for a good game tonight. 

[Singularity]

Two things stick out to me currently:

1. Split polar jet setup has appeared on UKMO 12z for day 6 and GFS 12z for day 8. A path forward that Tamara mentioned earlier this week - typically leads to some hot spells but with a tendency to go boom periodically (GFS has shown it’s usual ‘shunt away‘ bias after 8). 
 

2. The EPS have lost track of the MJO. The ensemble suite no longer has a consensus on propagation to the Pacific and beyond. By contrast, GEFS are strongly for it.

EPS have a weakness when it comes to the MJO so hopefully GEFS will prove right to be so bold.

[mb018538]

Yep, that is a 1025mb low over the SE on the ECM 144 chart, which is fairly hilarious. Such a UK chart. 
So despite the chart below looking like a lovely day at first glance, it’ll probably be fairly cloudy, showers and 21c max.

[Frosty.]

There’s some good signals from the GEFS 12z, especially towards mid July...small sample here!  

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

There’s some good signals from the GEFS 12z, especially towards mid July...small sample here!  

England win: make it so....

[JayAlmeida]

ECM keeps pushing the warmth back to 240 with every run. It'll be August by the time it verifies.

[mb018538]

No signs of any heat or majorly settling down just yet. At day 10 the mean is westerly, with the Azores high parked back in its natural home. Average conditions with sunshine and showers to be the order of the day once this storm clears away.

 

[Penrith Snow]

31 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

ECM keeps pushing the warmth back to 240 with every run. It'll be August by the time it verifies.

I am in South East Spain for the next month, what the hell will conditions under that purple colour be like? 26c uppers must mean 35c + at the surface  

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, well if at the T72-96 stage we have 6 different ones, it rather suggests a lot of uncertainty doesn’t it.  

Move on to T192-244:

It is like pulling teeth, but I think but maybe we are edging to a more high pressure scenario…more high pressure nosing in than any Uk high at the moment.  Outlook slowly getting better, sometimes this can accelerate as the models get to grips with the background signals that are also part of their model output….this has always grated with me….going round in circles.  

[JayAlmeida]

22 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I am in South East Spain for the next month, what the hell will conditions under that purple colour be like? 26c uppers must mean 35c + at the surface  

Atleast you'll be acclimatised when spaceX start doing trips to the surface of the sun  

[JayAlmeida]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters, well if at the T72-96 stage we have 6 different ones, it rather suggests a lot of uncertainty doesn’t it.  

Move on to T192-244:

It is like pulling teeth, but I think but maybe we are edging to a more high pressure scenario…more high pressure nosing in than any Uk high at the moment.  Outlook slowly getting better, sometimes this can accelerate as the models get to grips with the background signals that are also part of their model output….this has always grated with me….going round in 

Speaking of teeth the only thing that comes to mind with these clusters is allsorts. No real grip or pull on the weather in the extended range just yet. The last three look good though.  

Feels like this uncertainty is going to last for the rest of the summer.

Edited July 3, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Methuselah]

The very fact that this is the first post in nine hours, speaks volumes; model-watching is getting more like 'spot the difference', every day:

    

    

    

Might be a few more warmish muggy-feeling days ahead, should the GEFS 00Z ensembles pan out:

   

[mb018538]

It looks like it’s trying hard to settle down a bit, but not quite managing to. Still troughs and pesky features in the mixer which will stop us getting some nice sunny days for now.

[sheikhy]

Looking good this morning!!!!ecm and ukmo build a lovely warm high just in time for the weekend!!what looked like a prolonged period of unsettled weather just  a few days ago has once again shortened out considerably!!!

[Singularity]

Still a shallow upper low nipping across southern parts Fri-Sat in the UKMO run. ECM has a less distinct feature.

Worth bearing in mind that they will likely spread out the associated showery rain  too much - actual outcome more focused across a smaller area. Some could see dry, warm weather while others have showers, possibly thundery.

By Sunday we see the next push from the Azores High. Repeating theme of that going forward. Need that MJO propagation for increased success and longevity of ridging across the UK as we go through the middle third of the month.

[JayAlmeida]

sandwiched between two lows again!? How many times have we seen this over the last few weeks.

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Still a shallow upper low nipping across southern parts Fri-Sat in the UKMO run. ECM has a less distinct feature.

Worth bearing in mind that they will likely spread out the associated showery rain  too much - actual outcome more focused across a smaller area. Some could see dry, warm weather while others have showers, possibly thundery.

By Sunday we see the next push from the Azores High. Repeating theme of that going forward. Need that MJO propagation for increased success and longevity of ridging across the UK as we go through the middle third of the month.

Lol just 8 days away again Summer 2021 for the south completely absent from these parts. Likely to be a struggle to reach average of 22C for the next 10days.