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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    The dry April shows no signs of abating for the next week, though perhaps signs of a change in weather pattern as we approach the end of the month. High pressure could finally retrograde back into the mid Atlantic, with a trough moving into our neck of the woods:

    image.thumb.png.1e63a5cfefb6bc86b3ad9c5c68d7d197.pngimage.thumb.png.676b2ca2dc8da67bbee357cac980c9ae.pngimage.thumb.png.229fc7c5e9ec1bdf1916e37c79900162.pngimage.thumb.png.1eaa96278c967651a150d5de4296d1c1.png

    Temperatures no great shakes after tomorrow either, cooler air never far away with high pressure out to the west and a flow between N and E pulling the cold our way.

    Perhaps April showers will be replaced by May showers this year.

    Stuck on the wrong side of a block only to end up getting stuck under a trough. Yuck British weather at its bog standard worst.

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    Boa tarde🙂 Its a synoptically intriguing Spring-time situation with the atmospheric circulation, 'c/o tropical and extra tropical wind-flow cycles, still clearly 'remembering' the patterns of mid

    Hi gang ,charts all favourable for mostly dry weather and increasing warmth. I have been lurking about ,had a bad chest infection but now feeling better. I've not had  Sausage Bap for over 3 weeks, bu

    For those in the UK this summer, I think that is a good enough signal, at that range, based on the increasingly likely potential evolution of tropical and extra tropical forcing driving the atmosphere

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:


    So yet again the NOAA charts very much like prevailing over the previous GFS prediction of warmth... sadly...

    Quite possibly. Don't think anyone really thought a heatwave was coming though, did they? Good to see your NOAA sponsorship deal has been renewed for the new season 😄😝

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Quite possibly. Don't think anyone really thought a heatwave was coming though, did they? Good to see your NOAA sponsorship deal has been renewed for the new season 😄😝

    LOL...its more about illustrating their accuracy and how useful they are in picking out the most likely route of development when theres a wide disagreement between the big two.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Are there changes afoot post-Day 10, or is the GFS off on another flight-of-fancy? Not that I have much confidence in 'extended' model runs, anyway:🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Supposing the 06Z to be right (somewhat unlikely!) would the anomalies pick up that sort of synoptic-shift, that far out?

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I jest of course. I suspect the 6z is a fairly big outlier...doesn’t fit the rest of the model output really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Latest GEFS temperature ensembles put the operational run not far away from the mean:🤔

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    I jest of course. I suspect the 6z is a fairly big outlier...doesn’t fit the rest of the model output really.

    image.thumb.png.06f5f190483961eb96c4916c15bcfeef.png

    The answer was a resounding yes....pressure far too high.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Are there changes afoot post-Day 10, or is the GFS off on another flight-of-fancy? Not that I have much confidence in 'extended' model runs, anyway:🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Supposing the 06Z to be right (somewhat unlikely!) would the anomalies pick up that sort of synoptic-shift, that far out?

    Ahh the classic May return to the Atlantic, just like the old days. Hopefully of the manner of 2003 or more so 2006, the latter which was a mere wet interlude between the cool April and sparkling summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

    Glorious weather over the last few days. Just the right temp for me :). The GFS 06Z is a horrific run if you want some rain though - which I do. Glad to see it's an outlier. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    As I've been saying (since about February!😁) Spring is springing:👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Irrespective of the current weather, pleasant as it is, the models this evening are, to use a phrase long on accuracy but short on linguistic elegance, "very blocky".

    With heights near constant to the west and north west for the rest of the month, it'd not going to end well for those wanting summer-like southerly zephyrs.

    Indeed, GFS 12Z Control offers at T+192 everyone's all-time favourite, a long-fetch NE'ly.

    image.thumb.png.e92c70b879b0164e31252dbe7e00ef46.png

    GFS OP is a fine example of an "if only it was January" run. Jet far to the south and a Channel LP - now, if it were January 4th instead of May 4th....

    image.thumb.png.1377a840790ed0d3d98946f06032de08.png

    The problem with the synoptics of heights to the north west is "we're damned if we do and we're damned if we don't". IF the heights are robust enough, the response is for the trough to drop into Scandinavia and we get a N'ly airflow which could be sunny for the west and damp for the east. The other option, if the heights are a bit further away, is the trough ends up over the British isles between the heights to east and west then it's a little milder but wet for us all.

    ECM, which now seems as popular as a European Super League, shows what can happen if the British isles is caught between the two pressure systems. To be fair, nothing too dramatic - we're not talking 10 foot of snow in Trafalgar Square by any means - but the risk of overnight ground and air frosts remains right through to month end - the T-240 chart has -8 850s for the north which is far from inspiring.

    image.thumb.png.4d7b88cbb0dbc8324231d5898fc85883.png

    Until we can break down the Greenland heights, this is the pattern - it has shades of March 2013 about it though far from the severity. Again, it's not unusual for the time of the year - this time the blocking hasn't occurred where it would bring warm air to the British Isles as has been the pattern recently. This year we've ended up on the chilly side of the street.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh well, the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles start-off okay . . . but early May looks like manna, for the Daily Express's headline writers:😁

     

    t850Bedfordshire.png     t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
    7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    I'm really not feeling the same despair that a lot of people seem to be expressing in here- it's glorious here today with above average temps- what more do people want?

     

    Depends where you live I guess? I feel sorry for a lot of the east coast down to the south east, with a keen nagging north switching easterly wind, which has been relentless for over a month, bar the odd day of "warmth". Today for example yep looked nice outside, but was still feeling chilly in that wind. Which is likely to pick up yet again from Wednesday onwards. As others have said for models it isn't looking good if  you're looking for a wind switch

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    'Not good' might be the ideal descriptor of this morning's GEFS temperature ensembles:🥶

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    The only quantum of solace I can think of is that the op's at the cool end of things. Not that the mean's all that great, either!😁

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Not liking the trend here much .........go away Winter ,,,it is nearly May !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)

    The 0z temp ens dont look much better General

    image.thumb.png.39c753d886b0e4c585b5821aecab3e7f.png

    Both the control and op at the bottom. There are a couple reaching for the sky though pushing +10 850s. So, where there is erm ....weather, there's hope..😄

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.b4cbe4e593247ef96dd27dc60939e214.png

    High pressure out to the W/NW....never good for the UK! More cold incoming folks.

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    2 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Not liking the trend here much .........go away Winter ,,,it is nearly May !!

    I imagine this is how a new ice age might start. I jest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
  • Weather Preferences: Love heat & thunderstorms, but despise Winter
  • Location: Kent,Ashford
    19 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    I'm really not feeling the same despair that a lot of people seem to be expressing in here- it's glorious here today with above average temps- what more do people want?

    Things have improved considerably since the very cold first 10 days.

    It has been very sunny here so far (I know it hasn't been everywhere) and in the sunshine and out of the wind it has been quite acceptable for the last week or even longer.

    The CET is low yes, but it has been much better than some past Aprils- 2008 for starters and it has blown 2012 out of the water.

    I also don't think we will return to anything like the conditions we saw in the first third of the month. Cooler again if northern blocking establishes itself but nothing too unpleasant.

    I agree completely, the weather right now is lovely but it could still do with some higher temperatures but I'm not complaining how it is right now, the ground though is pretty cracked up so it does need some rain but compared to how April has been mostly, this is a gift and hope it says that way for some time even though that sounds evil for the flowers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    56 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

    I agree completely, the weather right now is lovely but it could still do with some higher temperatures but I'm not complaining how it is right now, the ground though is pretty cracked up so it does need some rain but compared to how April has been mostly, this is a gift and hope it says that way for some time even though that sounds evil for the flowers.

    source-1.thumb.gif.ece15f88f821f13dadc8eb5553b6f473.gif

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