Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Britneyfan]

Temps look respectable to me, low twenties in the south east with thunderstorms and showers and a humid feel, I won’t knock that at all! Actually quite fun! Today here we reached 21° and now I’m watching a thunderstorm roll across! Perfect for me 

[mb018538]

ECM run tonight it truly horrific 

2-5 inches of rain over the next 10 days. Flooding woes to come by the looks of it, no surprise that the models have now settled on the worst possible outcome!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM run tonight it truly horrific 

2-5 inches of rain over the next 10 days. Flooding woes to come by the looks of it, no surprise that the models have now settled on the worst possible outcome!

Who’d of thought

[Scorcher]

Got to be one of the strangest 850hPa charts I've ever seen- how unlucky can you get!

The Atlantic is dead, very warm air basically surrounding us and yet an incredibly shallow trough gets trapped over the Channel.

I've seen some bizarre developments over years of model watching but this is right up there.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Got to be one of the strangest 850hPa charts I've ever seen- how unlucky can you get!

The Atlantic is dead, very warm air basically surrounding us and yet an incredibly shallow trough gets trapped over the Channel.

I've seen some bizarre developments over years of model watching but this is right up there.

covers on! your location looks good though?

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 12z there are clearly mixed signals, there’s some great charts, some average charts, and some poor charts (what’s new) ...some ensembles blow up a few autumnal looking lows...BUT..generally speaking, the mean indicates a good deal of warmth and the weather pattern looks very slow moving / slack with ridges and weak (ish) troughs drifting around...and there’s scope for anticyclonic conditions to develop as well as heat potential, even a plume could be on the menu in early July...there, I think that covers all bases!!! ?... ? ⛈ ? ️  

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Jon Snow

[JayAlmeida]

Little Sunny Sanctuary in Northern england on Wednesday  

Makes a change

[Scorcher]

27 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

covers on! your location looks good though?

Very borderline to be honest, I was confident about us staying dry looking at previous runs but not so sure now. On a knife-edge.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM run tonight it truly horrific 

2-5 inches of rain over the next 10 days. Flooding woes to come by the looks of it, no surprise that the models have now settled on the worst possible outcome!

Those charts are not to be trusted- they were showing biblical amounts of rain for the weekend a couple of days back and in the south it now looks like many places will stay dry tomorrow at least.

The Met Office never showed a huge amount of rain over the weekend even when people on here were talking about how dire it was going to be.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Scorcher

[ANYWEATHER]

If you look at the Jet Stream you will see how complicated weather forecasting is...

[Frosty.]

This is not a bad longer term ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, it suggests plenty of warmth in what looks a very slow moving / slack pattern... which is pretty much what I said about the GEFS 12z mean actually!...I think, on the face of it,  this is a respectable mean for early July!..certainly much better than anything we saw in May!..it’s more in tune with what most of June has delivered so far...a predominantly decent first third to summer 2021!  

[Stargazer]

58 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Those charts are not to be trusted- they were showing biblical amounts of rain for the weekend a couple of days back and in the south it now looks like many places will stay dry tomorrow at least.

The Met Office never showed a huge amount of rain over the weekend even when people on here were talking about how dire it was going to be.

All goes to show how difficult this set-up will be to forecast - like you I'm sceptical about that rainfall map.

At present there seems to be more chance of heavy convective activity than biblical frontal rain (although admittedly we did get the latter here last Friday). Some places might get large rainfall totals, and I couldn't begin to guess where, but certainly the Met for one doesn't seem to be buying widespread huge rainfall amounts all over the south.

My greater concern is how long that channel low will take to shift.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Stargazer

[Liam Burge]

Gonna get soaked on Monday.

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM run tonight it truly horrific 

2-5 inches of rain over the next 10 days. Flooding woes to come by the looks of it, no surprise that the models have now settled on the worst possible outcome!

Just had well over 2” in 4hrs this evening, you can clearly see where via the environment agency....more to come looking at the models.

[Man With Beard]

Interesting that the channel low is forecast to become more unsettled with each day. Not too much rain Saturday/Sunday, but really starts to ramp up Monday/Tuesday.

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Those charts are not to be trusted

I'd normally agree, but other models are also jumping in..

NetWx:

Day 3:

Day 4:

UKV:

Day 3:

Day 4:

Day 5:

Edited June 25, 2021 by Mapantz

[Howie]

This trough situation is truly ridiculous . Don't think I've seen anything like it 

[mb018538]

UKMO day 6/7 finally clears the low, hooray!

[sheikhy]

Just to let you know ecm is out already and wrong for this morning!!on the 12z it had a band of rain across the midlands for today but theres nothing lol!!!

[northwestsnow]

I can't help but look at those precip charts and wish it was December with a cold Easterly  in place !!

Certainly looks wet Manchester South,broadly speaking.

But, bigshout out to the North West ,so often the bridesmaid ,next 7 -10 days looks mainly dry and warm.

[bluearmy]

not posted for a while - couldn’t find anything positive to say re summer sunshine  ….. 

the shallow upper trough certainly seems to be honed in on nw Europe and certainly the s of the U.K. 

whilst the means may offer an apparent decent picture, they invariably hide a good v bad outcome and variable timings on the troughing 

scandi height rise seems pretty solid moving  forward but with the Atlantic ridge tending to amplify, we keep dropping an upper trough into the e Atlantic sector 

 

[sheikhy]

Oh just to add no rain for leicester what so ever from now till the end of the run from gfs 00z!!!!ecm has rain for me tuesday but apart from that nuttin much!!it seems to have downgraded the amounts significantly for me!!

[Scorcher]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Certainly looks wet Manchester South,broadly speaking.

I don't see a lot of rain for the Manchester area from what I'm seeing this morning?

Probably fairly cloudy during the week but I think most of the rain will be the Midlands south.

The Met Office are going for dry and cloudy for this area so could definitely be worse.

 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I don't see a lot of rain for the Manchester area from what I'm seeing this morning?

Probably fairly cloudy during the week but I think most of the rain will be the Midlands south.

The Met Office are going for dry and cloudy for this area so could definitely be worse.

 

Yes, sorry , I meant south of Manchester, as it stands.

[Methuselah]

As has been the case for some days now, the GFS 00Z paints quite an acceptable longer-term once the troublesome trough moves off and/or dissipates. That said, I've always enjoyed thundery weather! 

     

     

     

GEFS temperature ensembles aren't too shabby, either; looks like being well within the 'comfort zone'?: