Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

This is a fairly good match, but the Anomalies arnt going to pick up on the pesky little feature that bringing unsettled to the South this next week. To me, it appears that that feature will exit west. One things certain though, it has spoilt and otherwise fine summers week.

I dont think its done just yet!!those mushynomalies could still be spot on!!what i have found in the last couple of days is the 12zs take that annoying trough further away from the uk which gives drier 12z runs but only for it to push back closer on the 00zs!!!i will take the gfs this morning as it gives hardly any rain from today for my neck of the woods!!amazing differences in regards to rainfall between now and 96 hours on ecm and gfs!!ecm wetter gfs a lot drier!!

[mb018538]

ECM has been about as bullish as you can get in suggesting a strong Scandi high will dominate in July - this now starting to show in the extended clusters.





ECM average this morning showing we may have to wait until Friday before the last remnants of this damned trough dissipate. It's now a question of how wet it will be in the south.





It's also not too often you see a summer temperature profile like this in the UK - but this will be typical for much of the next 5 days. The far NW, Scotland and Ireland the place to be for a very fine week....while us folks down south could endure a miserable week of rain and suppressed temps.
Enjoy your warm week in the sun people of the north!
 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

Lol coming from someone who wants cold and snow all winter long……and unsurprisingly 24hrs down the line the trough looks like lingering over the south now until the middle of next week at best. GFS, ECM and UKMO all have it hanging around like a Bartlett high in the middle of January….. 

Yes I did say the trough could be troublesome! But it's looking like a South Midlands Southwards event for the best part...going on what I'm seeing this morning and the latest local forecasts..so further North should be in for some rather nice conditions. A decent EC46 moving forward also with a signal for Blocking looking quite strong!

Yes I search for snow all Winter long,but I don't get downbeat over it not occurring! I'm always hopeful another bite of the cherry will come along if a fail occurs,which it does often! Trust me its less stressful in the long run.

@Mr Frost David...Great news,don't be a stranger mate...do keep dropping in occasionally,your input is always enjoyed.. all the very best my Scottish friend.

So the next 5 or so days look mixed towards the South,with rain and potential thundery downpours...further North perhaps the Midlands Northwards looks to be more settled with sunny spells and remaining warm.. Further North still and it looks quite glorious! As a UK forecasts goes,it's not half bad at all.

Edited June 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

59 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I dont think its done just yet!!those mushynomalies could still be spot on!!what i have found in the last couple of days is the 12zs take that annoying trough further away from the uk which gives drier 12z runs but only for it to push back closer on the 00zs!!!i will take the gfs this morning as it gives hardly any rain from today for my neck of the woods!!amazing differences in regards to rainfall between now and 96 hours on ecm and gfs!!ecm wetter gfs a lot drier!!

Oh i expect those "mushynomalies" (lol) to be very close to what we get... the latest 6-10 day chart i posted above an hour or so ago actually builds the high pressure to our near Northeast compared to yesterdays 6-10 day chart. Their own confidence rating is 5/5 for that chart, so i cannot see them being far out.
They show high pressure dominance throughout the 6-14 day range, we just have to rid ourselves of the current pesky feature and summer will arrive.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Oh i expect those "mushynomalies" (lol) to be very close to what we get... the latest 6-10 day chart i posted above an hour or so ago actually builds the high pressure to our near Northeast compared to yesterdays 6-10 day chart. Their own confidence rating is 5/5 for that chart, so i cannot see them being far out.
They show high pressure dominance throughout the 6-14 day range, we just have to rid ourselves of the current pesky feature and summer will arrive.

The latest GFS run backs this up to a large degree. In any case this coming week looks good north of the Midlands and unusually better the further north and west you go.

Anyone heading to the west of Scotland next week will be thrilled I'm sure.

[Frosty.]

There’s some good signs for early July from the GEFS 6z! ...is it all good?..nope, there’s some crap signs too (just for balance)...but...being positive.. ...this decent summer so far could continue to be..decent!
 

 

 

[JayAlmeida]

Feeling hot, hot, hot in the far away fantasy land range. Maybe hints of a Spanish plume teaming up with a scandi high? Probly not but its nice to hope. GFS looking much more pleasing in the long term today.

[Methuselah]

Up to T+120 on the GFS 12Z, and it's like the Little Big Horn -- we're surrounded! 

    

[sheikhy]

Once again for my area much better gfs and hardly any rain from now till 192 hours at the very least?!!

[Methuselah]

Out to Day 10, and a right stonker is in the making; only Greenland, and its adjacent seas, under sub-5C T850s?  

     

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Out to Day 10, and a right stonker is in the making; only Greenland, and its adjacent seas, under sub-5C T850s?  

     

I'm really not being funny but stonking is not term I'd used for those charts.....they are terrible on GFS as its starting/attempting to crank up the Atlantic. 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm really not being funny but stonking is not term I'd used for those charts.....they are terrible on GFS as its starting/attempting to crank up the Atlantic. 

 

 

GFS going very July like, nearly always the return of the Atlantic

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I'm really not being funny but stonking is not term I'd used for those charts.....they are terrible on GFS as its starting/attempting to crank up the Atlantic. 

 

 

Agreed Chris. I don't mind rain when it's needed but that's not a chart I think any of us would enjoy in supposed high summer.

[JayAlmeida]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS going very July like, nearly always the return of the Atlantic

The 00z and 06z look much better if you like HP so its 2 - 1 to high pressure at 240+ hours with the GFS today so far......until the 18z

[mb018538]

GEM is much better again….GFS very mobile this evening. Just disappointing that the cut off low pressure is going to stick around for so long through next week for a good few million people.

Its still not even cleared away on Friday on the ukmo 168 tonight:

[ChannelThunder]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is much better again….GFS very mobile this evening. Just disappointing that the cut off low pressure is going to stick around for so long through next week for a good few million people.

Its still not even cleared away on Friday on the ukmo 168 tonight:

I get the sense that this cut-off low won't even produce any storms or heat from Europe, thus rendering it a completely pointless and long-lasting blight on our summer! I hope it proves me wrong on at least one count.

[JayAlmeida]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is much better again….GFS very mobile this evening. Just disappointing that the cut off low pressure is going to stick around for so long through next week for a good few million people.

Its still not even cleared away on Friday on the ukmo 168 tonight:

The GFS 12z has a similar scenario to this with the initial cut off low threatening to join up with the atlantic trough over the top of us. Really hope this doesn't come off.

[Methuselah]

I can't see the reason for so much whining . . . Even out at Day 15, we have T850s ranging from around +4C in the Western Isles, to +10-ish in the far Southeast. I'm quite happy with a showery day and  c. 25C temperatures? 

 

    

The apparent need (among some) for a constant SLP of 1060hPa and afternoon maxes of 95F is something I've always found baffling -- even 1976 didn't provide anything like that!

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GEM is much better again….GFS very mobile this evening. Just disappointing that the cut off low pressure is going to stick around for so long through next week for a good few million people.

Its still not even cleared away on Friday on the ukmo 168 tonight:

Interestingly this would be a warm Easterly ,temps in Oslo for example 29/30 late next week.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I can't see the reason for so much whining . . . Even out at Day 15, we have T850s ranging from around +4C in the Western Isles, to +10-ish in the far Southeast. I'm quite happy with a showery day and  c. 25C temperatures? 

 

    

The apparent need (among some) for a constant SLP of 1060hPa and afternoon maxes of 95F is something I've always found baffling -- even 1976 didn't provide anything like that!

Ed not even I want that but what your saying is just not correlating with the charts you are posting. Thats a terrible summer chart again, starting to think you're trolling a bit. Those charts have an almost farcical bend in the jet over the UK with below average temps (and quite below in places) with showers or longer spells of rain. 

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

TBH the UKMO is a chart id love to see in winter...

Especially off a frigid continent,-15 uppers, snow showers blowing in off a frozen North Sea ...

Back to reality , hopefully warm in late June..

[JayAlmeida]

Can the UKMO ever be trusted again after this doozy?

[Man With Beard]

Last week of June: Revenge of the North West! Tuesdays maximums and 24 hour rainfall according to the latest ECM 

Here's all the rain between now and Thursday morning

Looks like a channel low lasting for 5 days coming up ... don't tell the coldies

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z gets there in the end but it is painful!  T240:

Suppose if this is the destination (terminus!) as suggested by some of the longer range models, we have to suck up next week and hope it happens into July.

One other thing occurs to me.  Where is the Atlantic?  When did we last really see it?  It wasn’t a force through the whole of last winter, and there is still plenty of blocking around now, yes not always in the right place (May and right now).  Suppose this continues through the rest of summer, as it seems likely from the longer range models that a Azores - Scandi ridge might take hold and give us all some much needed summer heat.  

What then for winter?  With the east QBO as well, we could be looking at a high likelihood of a blocked winter pattern pretty much from the get go, and a weak vortex giving a higher than average chance of a SSW at some point too.  My money’s on a proper cold one this year!  

But that’s months away.  

GEM decent by T168 by the way:

[Methuselah]

A perfectly reasonable set of GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles . . . Well, sixteen days' between +7 and +11C (T850s) look okay to me, living over here in Suffolk. Though In Bournemouth, no doubt, incessant rain and sleet will be the order-of-the-day! 

    

Some folks, it seems, still seem to think the models control the weather!