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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

    Yes i think so @sheikhy, ECM mean T240:

    0CFC583B-402A-4E53-93CD-6C8EBB0C5ABF.thumb.gif.c67cb44ce5c9c2487a681f782b8908b7.gif

    Forget the detail here which is doubtless subject to change, the important thing is where is the likely trough (Atlantic) and where is the likely ridge (Scandi). Spread, well this tells a lot by telling us nothing:

    8D0B87C1-EEDF-46E4-B532-03899670263B.thumb.gif.85a74c66d9f9551271875ca4b3bc8651.gif

    It goes settled at 10 day timescale.  The late June unsettled mess was always an aberration…July will start better…we will see… 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    20 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

    For several years now, I've really only looked at the ECM in summer, then read the summaries & charts in here from other models, just a guide to the next week or so. Now I'm afraid it's not worth my time even looking at ECM. How the mighty have fallen! It's inconsistencies from run to run, never mind day to day, have become something that even the GFS at it's worst would envy.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    A possibly exciting period of weather coming up, but it treads on a very fine line as to where the cut off low ends up. If it manages a ‘Fujiwara’ effect with the other cut off low further out west over the next 48-72 hours instead of heading East underneath us, that will change everything, possibly giving rise to a return of heat. 

    I do love a cut off low to the SW, and probably my favourite type of weather. The best rut to get stuck in! Warm, humid and thundery!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    As much as folk want to hate on the Euro, not only is it inline with its 0z run but it's just a less messy version of the GFS solution so it's not without some support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    That’s another excellent ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, did we ever see a mean like that in May?...nope, it was cold trough dominated crap!...this on the other hand is very summery towards the end!...yes it’s a mean so it’s broad brushstrokes and lacks the finer detail but I continue to have a good feeling about early July. 👍 ☀️ 🤞

    615D0DB9-CADD-4A81-9D03-48994566538A.thumb.gif.b64deff95d2eec65a71ae3a7ec5383f2.gif74C5DBD3-5EF4-43FA-BCB0-AF0E95E80339.thumb.gif.5466dd2a781d295435084632fac70d24.gif848F0553-1655-4242-84BB-E1053BF8ED46.thumb.gif.ba658c4b2e117483fc0ea22254a27fe7.gif67E7F60A-1C20-4E2B-AF9A-9D25A40FC6E4.thumb.gif.1992208b3daa4b683b0c67d50c15ef9f.gif 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    54 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    As much as folk want to hate on the Euro, not only is it inline with its 0z run but it's just a less messy version of the GFS solution so it's not without some support.

    People will always tend to support the run they want to see. I always say dismissing any operational run is dangerous stuff.. an operational against the grain that shows crud in winter or summer!

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Evening. Just scrolling through the Ecm and gfs and gfs and what you see is a Normal British Summer. .

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
    5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Evening. Just scrolling through the Ecm and gfs and gfs and what you see is a Normal British Summer. .

    Thats the problem 😆 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
    4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all

    Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks)

    500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 

    28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures.

    You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts. 

    07E52DA1-EEC1-444F-950E-AEF77C4EBA4E.thumb.png.98b28982815bd29035ff8a4c77d0447b.png5D997F48-5FF4-4285-8202-987E6813F9FC.thumb.png.68f066f6321d1efa56d2f5f3e257a00e.png1A78FF30-DDC3-4BA1-A5F9-3A19701F5034.thumb.png.2786a52ce299cefb11a2f5f31c123c2c.png
     

    Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend.

    00E1CF5E-2781-4680-8A3B-088A4D8AB2F7.thumb.jpeg.4ee6c7d193d8c3edd22b5186f618d881.jpeg
     

    Early next week and beyond.

    2DF454B2-1C7C-4688-9D93-527A7E5A8715.thumb.jpeg.8276e9c045ba603368079ec81e8095e9.jpeg
     

    So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely. 
    Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there. 
     

    05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all. 
    Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average.

    EDA55DAD-EC4B-4660-956F-776E53C9D4CC.thumb.png.32380f9d1699a7248391aedeab2d22ca.png10FF3BC6-B8AA-49E2-B9F5-6C1873342B00.thumb.png.f278c644bc130aa3cca6fc66354bf652.pngA5EED6EA-5F53-4154-8766-121C9911D676.thumb.png.4152fe8c4f1790da7a1875c389e6db50.png
     

    Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day. 

    This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending)   
    Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course! 😃 Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis. 

    It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum. 
    I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course. 😆

    All the best to you all and take care! 🍻

    Wish you and your family all the very best with your move my friend. I love the states particularly Florida it’s a great place to live. I’m envious 😉 thanks for your posts as always look out for them. Happy times ahead for you all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
    3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all

    Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks)

    500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 

    28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures.

    You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts. 

    07E52DA1-EEC1-444F-950E-AEF77C4EBA4E.thumb.png.98b28982815bd29035ff8a4c77d0447b.png5D997F48-5FF4-4285-8202-987E6813F9FC.thumb.png.68f066f6321d1efa56d2f5f3e257a00e.png1A78FF30-DDC3-4BA1-A5F9-3A19701F5034.thumb.png.2786a52ce299cefb11a2f5f31c123c2c.png
     

    Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend.

    00E1CF5E-2781-4680-8A3B-088A4D8AB2F7.thumb.jpeg.4ee6c7d193d8c3edd22b5186f618d881.jpeg
     

    Early next week and beyond.

    2DF454B2-1C7C-4688-9D93-527A7E5A8715.thumb.jpeg.8276e9c045ba603368079ec81e8095e9.jpeg
     

    So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely. 
    Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there. 
     

    05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all. 
    Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average.

    EDA55DAD-EC4B-4660-956F-776E53C9D4CC.thumb.png.32380f9d1699a7248391aedeab2d22ca.png10FF3BC6-B8AA-49E2-B9F5-6C1873342B00.thumb.png.f278c644bc130aa3cca6fc66354bf652.pngA5EED6EA-5F53-4154-8766-121C9911D676.thumb.png.4152fe8c4f1790da7a1875c389e6db50.png
     

    Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day. 

    This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending)   
    Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course! 😃 Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis. 

    It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum. 
    I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course. 😆

    All the best to you all and take care! 🍻

    All the best for the new chapter of your life. Will miss your postings. Enjoy the 🌞 sun 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Not the best ecm between now abd tuesday for midlands southwards!!rain pretty much on and off till tuesday!lets see what the rest of the run brings!ukmo brings the trough back closer to southern england as wel!l!gfs looks the best hardly any rain for me in the midlands from now till well  into fi!!who will be right!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Once the next few days are gone, today's GFS 00Z is pretty good. I have woken up to worse!:  👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    20 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    It's getting tiresome how you constantly pick the worse possible outcome as the most likely to be correct! This is Winter in reverse,if it shows cold it ain't happening!...Thats not how Weather works. Can you imagine pro forecasters coming on to say....the forecast is uncertain,but the worse case scenario is most likely to happen,because its the UK!

    I can see some similarities from the ECM mean and those NOA charts that Mushy and JH so thankfully update us on in detail..yes the trough is a pain towards the South,it could be slower to clear,but that doesn't mean its the most like scenario based on the...(if it can go wrong,it will go wrong philosophy).

     

    EDM1-96 (1).gif

    EDM1-120 (1).gif

    EDM1-192 (1).gif

    Lol coming from someone who wants cold and snow all winter long……and unsurprisingly 24hrs down the line the trough looks like lingering over the south now until the middle of next week at best. GFS, ECM and UKMO all have it hanging around like a Bartlett high in the middle of January….. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    But the later part of the ecm has now finally edged towards the more very warm dry summery mean!!☀️🌡

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Lol coming from someone who wants cold and snow all winter long……and unsurprisingly 24hrs down the line the trough looks like lingering over the south now until the middle of next week at best. GFS, ECM and UKMO all have it hanging around like a Bartlett high in the middle of January….. 

    Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM!

    Very wet:
    image.thumb.png.c4fe313aa732e67b740aa5ac7f4bf6db.png

    UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week:


    image.thumb.png.95acbc0131827f5af5311fa646413901.pngimage.thumb.png.03e2d208a6d9c572654abbd36f009eae.png

    GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

    image.thumb.png.4c3ee48e666507e6027ef21cc67e433e.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM!

    Very wet:
    image.thumb.png.c4fe313aa732e67b740aa5ac7f4bf6db.png

    UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week:


    image.thumb.png.95acbc0131827f5af5311fa646413901.pngimage.thumb.png.03e2d208a6d9c572654abbd36f009eae.png

    GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

    image.thumb.png.4c3ee48e666507e6027ef21cc67e433e.png
     

    Just another week day under it then….seems like that’s become the consistency. Trough for another 6-7 days over parts of E+W better the further north and west you are and after that who knows. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Matt Taylor just now confirming the low in the Bay of Biscay will be a player through Sunday and into next week.

    A rare Summer set up whereby the NW gets the best of any drier warmer weather, unfortunate for those in the South short term.

    On a brighter note the EC mean supports a general drying out and warming up for the south longer term.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

    People will always tend to support the run they want to see. I always say dismissing any operational run is dangerous stuff.. an operational against the grain that shows crud in winter or summer!

    “Crud” historically, has the best verification statistics in this country.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    This is a fairly good match, but the Anomalies arnt going to pick up on the pesky little feature that bringing unsettled to the South this next week. To me, it appears that that feature will exit west. One things certain though, it has spoilt and otherwise fine summers week.

    Capture.JPG

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    This is a fairly good match, but the Anomalies arnt going to pick up on the pesky little feature that bringing unsettled to the South this next week. To me, it appears that that feature will exit west. One things certain though, it has spoilt and otherwise fine summers week.

    Capture.JPG

    To your last sentence, and it’s not so often I get to say this, but, “not for me!” 😀

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