Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

Yes i think so @sheikhy, ECM mean T240:

0CFC583B-402A-4E53-93CD-6C8EBB0C5ABF.thumb.gif.c67cb44ce5c9c2487a681f782b8908b7.gif

Forget the detail here which is doubtless subject to change, the important thing is where is the likely trough (Atlantic) and where is the likely ridge (Scandi). Spread, well this tells a lot by telling us nothing:

8D0B87C1-EEDF-46E4-B532-03899670263B.thumb.gif.85a74c66d9f9551271875ca4b3bc8651.gif

It goes settled at 10 day timescale.  The late June unsettled mess was always an aberration…July will start better…we will see… 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
20 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean once again wayy better start to finish!!!!i just get this feeling the op might be struggling big time here?!!ecm not been on its best form recently so im gona say its struggling right now big time and will eventually come in line hopefully!!

For several years now, I've really only looked at the ECM in summer, then read the summaries & charts in here from other models, just a guide to the next week or so. Now I'm afraid it's not worth my time even looking at ECM. How the mighty have fallen! It's inconsistencies from run to run, never mind day to day, have become something that even the GFS at it's worst would envy.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

A possibly exciting period of weather coming up, but it treads on a very fine line as to where the cut off low ends up. If it manages a ‘Fujiwara’ effect with the other cut off low further out west over the next 48-72 hours instead of heading East underneath us, that will change everything, possibly giving rise to a return of heat. 

I do love a cut off low to the SW, and probably my favourite type of weather. The best rut to get stuck in! Warm, humid and thundery!!

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As much as folk want to hate on the Euro, not only is it inline with its 0z run but it's just a less messy version of the GFS solution so it's not without some support.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

That’s another excellent ECM 12z ensemble mean tonight, did we ever see a mean like that in May?...nope, it was cold trough dominated crap!...this on the other hand is very summery towards the end!...yes it’s a mean so it’s broad brushstrokes and lacks the finer detail but I continue to have a good feeling about early July. ☀️

615D0DB9-CADD-4A81-9D03-48994566538A.thumb.gif.b64deff95d2eec65a71ae3a7ec5383f2.gif74C5DBD3-5EF4-43FA-BCB0-AF0E95E80339.thumb.gif.5466dd2a781d295435084632fac70d24.gif848F0553-1655-4242-84BB-E1053BF8ED46.thumb.gif.ba658c4b2e117483fc0ea22254a27fe7.gif67E7F60A-1C20-4E2B-AF9A-9D25A40FC6E4.thumb.gif.1992208b3daa4b683b0c67d50c15ef9f.gif 

 

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
54 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As much as folk want to hate on the Euro, not only is it inline with its 0z run but it's just a less messy version of the GFS solution so it's not without some support.

People will always tend to support the run they want to see. I always say dismissing any operational run is dangerous stuff.. an operational against the grain that shows crud in winter or summer!

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening. Just scrolling through the Ecm and gfs and gfs and what you see is a Normal British Summer. .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening. Just scrolling through the Ecm and gfs and gfs and what you see is a Normal British Summer. .

Thats the problem  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all

Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks)

500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 

28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures.

You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts. 

07E52DA1-EEC1-444F-950E-AEF77C4EBA4E.thumb.png.98b28982815bd29035ff8a4c77d0447b.png5D997F48-5FF4-4285-8202-987E6813F9FC.thumb.png.68f066f6321d1efa56d2f5f3e257a00e.png1A78FF30-DDC3-4BA1-A5F9-3A19701F5034.thumb.png.2786a52ce299cefb11a2f5f31c123c2c.png
 

Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend.

00E1CF5E-2781-4680-8A3B-088A4D8AB2F7.thumb.jpeg.4ee6c7d193d8c3edd22b5186f618d881.jpeg
 

Early next week and beyond.

2DF454B2-1C7C-4688-9D93-527A7E5A8715.thumb.jpeg.8276e9c045ba603368079ec81e8095e9.jpeg
 

So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely. 
Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there. 
 

05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all. 
Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average.

EDA55DAD-EC4B-4660-956F-776E53C9D4CC.thumb.png.32380f9d1699a7248391aedeab2d22ca.png10FF3BC6-B8AA-49E2-B9F5-6C1873342B00.thumb.png.f278c644bc130aa3cca6fc66354bf652.pngA5EED6EA-5F53-4154-8766-121C9911D676.thumb.png.4152fe8c4f1790da7a1875c389e6db50.png
 

Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day. 

This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending)   
Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course!  Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis. 

It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum. 
I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course. 

All the best to you all and take care! 

Wish you and your family all the very best with your move my friend. I love the states particularly Florida it’s a great place to live. I’m envious thanks for your posts as always look out for them. Happy times ahead for you all. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all

Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks)

500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies. 

28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures.

You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts. 

07E52DA1-EEC1-444F-950E-AEF77C4EBA4E.thumb.png.98b28982815bd29035ff8a4c77d0447b.png5D997F48-5FF4-4285-8202-987E6813F9FC.thumb.png.68f066f6321d1efa56d2f5f3e257a00e.png1A78FF30-DDC3-4BA1-A5F9-3A19701F5034.thumb.png.2786a52ce299cefb11a2f5f31c123c2c.png
 

Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend.

00E1CF5E-2781-4680-8A3B-088A4D8AB2F7.thumb.jpeg.4ee6c7d193d8c3edd22b5186f618d881.jpeg
 

Early next week and beyond.

2DF454B2-1C7C-4688-9D93-527A7E5A8715.thumb.jpeg.8276e9c045ba603368079ec81e8095e9.jpeg
 

So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely. 
Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there. 
 

05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all. 
Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average.

EDA55DAD-EC4B-4660-956F-776E53C9D4CC.thumb.png.32380f9d1699a7248391aedeab2d22ca.png10FF3BC6-B8AA-49E2-B9F5-6C1873342B00.thumb.png.f278c644bc130aa3cca6fc66354bf652.pngA5EED6EA-5F53-4154-8766-121C9911D676.thumb.png.4152fe8c4f1790da7a1875c389e6db50.png
 

Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day. 

This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending)   
Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course!  Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis. 

It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum. 
I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course. 

All the best to you all and take care! 

All the best for the new chapter of your life. Will miss your postings. Enjoy the sun 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Not the best ecm between now abd tuesday for midlands southwards!!rain pretty much on and off till tuesday!lets see what the rest of the run brings!ukmo brings the trough back closer to southern england as wel!l!gfs looks the best hardly any rain for me in the midlands from now till well  into fi!!who will be right!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Once the next few days are gone, today's GFS 00Z is pretty good. I have woken up to worse!:  

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's getting tiresome how you constantly pick the worse possible outcome as the most likely to be correct! This is Winter in reverse,if it shows cold it ain't happening!...Thats not how Weather works. Can you imagine pro forecasters coming on to say....the forecast is uncertain,but the worse case scenario is most likely to happen,because its the UK!

I can see some similarities from the ECM mean and those NOA charts that Mushy and JH so thankfully update us on in detail..yes the trough is a pain towards the South,it could be slower to clear,but that doesn't mean its the most like scenario based on the...(if it can go wrong,it will go wrong philosophy).

 

EDM1-96 (1).gif

EDM1-120 (1).gif

EDM1-192 (1).gif

Lol coming from someone who wants cold and snow all winter long……and unsurprisingly 24hrs down the line the trough looks like lingering over the south now until the middle of next week at best. GFS, ECM and UKMO all have it hanging around like a Bartlett high in the middle of January….. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol coming from someone who wants cold and snow all winter long……and unsurprisingly 24hrs down the line the trough looks like lingering over the south now until the middle of next week at best. GFS, ECM and UKMO all have it hanging around like a Bartlett high in the middle of January….. 

Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM!

Very wet:
image.thumb.png.c4fe313aa732e67b740aa5ac7f4bf6db.png

UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week:


image.thumb.png.95acbc0131827f5af5311fa646413901.pngimage.thumb.png.03e2d208a6d9c572654abbd36f009eae.png

GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

image.thumb.png.4c3ee48e666507e6027ef21cc67e433e.png
 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Going on the ECM - yes, you are right there. Trough is already over the UK as we speak, and isn't forecast to clear for 7/8 days on the 00z ECM!

Very wet:
image.thumb.png.c4fe313aa732e67b740aa5ac7f4bf6db.png

UKMO has it finally filling and moving away by Friday next week:


image.thumb.png.95acbc0131827f5af5311fa646413901.pngimage.thumb.png.03e2d208a6d9c572654abbd36f009eae.png

GEM looks more promising by Thursday:

image.thumb.png.4c3ee48e666507e6027ef21cc67e433e.png
 

Just another week day under it then….seems like that’s become the consistency. Trough for another 6-7 days over parts of E+W better the further north and west you are and after that who knows. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Matt Taylor just now confirming the low in the Bay of Biscay will be a player through Sunday and into next week.

A rare Summer set up whereby the NW gets the best of any drier warmer weather, unfortunate for those in the South short term.

On a brighter note the EC mean supports a general drying out and warming up for the south longer term.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

People will always tend to support the run they want to see. I always say dismissing any operational run is dangerous stuff.. an operational against the grain that shows crud in winter or summer!

“Crud” historically, has the best verification statistics in this country.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

This is a fairly good match, but the Anomalies arnt going to pick up on the pesky little feature that bringing unsettled to the South this next week. To me, it appears that that feature will exit west. One things certain though, it has spoilt and otherwise fine summers week.

Capture.JPG

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northern Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: Northern Ireland
7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

This is a fairly good match, but the Anomalies arnt going to pick up on the pesky little feature that bringing unsettled to the South this next week. To me, it appears that that feature will exit west. One things certain though, it has spoilt and otherwise fine summers week.

Capture.JPG

To your last sentence, and it’s not so often I get to say this, but, “not for me!”

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...