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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Chuckle brothers isn’t it…..to me, to you!

Tell me bout it mate!!and now gfs looks like its doing the same thing!!no where near as wet early on!!!still some around in the far south but not as bad!!could keep improving?!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Those mushynomalies might not be far that far off!!infact gfs goes one extra and amplifies so much that it now sets up a trough that could be incoming at 168 hours from norway!!you couldnt make this up!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

For comparison purposes from the 0z this morning we have consensus on the upper low being picked up at day 6 and a pressure build following which the GFS and GEM break down at day 9.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I’ve been banging on about settled for days and days now..tut tut..and finally the Ukmo 12h T+144 hours is in compliance..phew! ☀️...you know, us amateurs know a thing or two! ...until the next run..  

74261AFF-0FC2-41C2-B2F7-19A6233B5FAB.thumb.gif.e239c74a99ab52cf3607459fce838b03.gif

 

Just as the GFS changes its mind again  the 00z was pretty unsettled during the second half of next week and the 12z looks horrible past 174hrs and at 240hrs it's game over. I love your optimism but the models are really struggling with the cutoff lows. We see charts of boiling heat interspersed with green blobs deluge patterns.

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Just now, Jon Snow said:

Cheers, I’m just doing my best, unfortunately I have a problem trying to second guess what the models will do next.. ..it’s a real problem..does anyone know the answer? ...I’ve only been on here since 2005!  

Your welcome Just using the charts in front of me. I've only been here about 15 hours so you win when it comes to seniority. Well done.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Cheers, I’m just doing my best, unfortunately I have a problem trying to second guess what the models will do next.. ..it’s a real problem..does anyone know the answer? ...I’ve only been on here since 2005!  

Nobody knows @Jon Snow….met office and bbc forecasters all saying the same. Cut off low causing forecast nightmares, and even though it’s just a couple of days away now, it’s still nowhere near sorted. Quite unusual in the modern age of forecasting to have so much uncertainty at less than 5 days lead time. We will just have to be patient.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
19 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Just as the GFS changes its mind again  the 00z was pretty unsettled during the second half of next week and the 12z looks horrible past 174hrs and at 240hrs it's game over. I love your optimism but the models are really struggling with the cutoff lows. We see charts of boiling heat interspersed with green blobs deluge patterns.

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

Yes its really goes down hill beyond 174. Good job its in FI

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS out to Day 15, and things are still looking warm: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

40c incoming all im going to say..not sure if thats a ramp or a moan?

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Yes its really goes down hill beyond 174. Good job its in FI

The GFS 06z is my preferred outcome in the fantasy range and 3 out of 4 of the GFS runs had a similar patterns yesterday But it looks like LP wins out in that range today. I know the 240+ range is really unreliable but it tends to give a general flavor of what the models expect to happen.

Just have to wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 12z?...because it turns into a gem the further ahead it goes..for the majority..where is the Atlantic long term?? ..dead in the water! ☀️ 

 

E1045C42-7627-457B-8875-D9C0EFDE4A06.png

73447605-6965-489C-B1D3-6A028117415F.png

200222BF-178D-405B-8852-97E6F589234A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
42 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

40c incoming all im going to say..not sure if thats a ramp or a moan?

Good luck is all I can say. The 7 day forecast for Kamloops might be the most outrageous I’ve ever seen. Forecasts anywhere from 42-48c online. I think 48c ain’t happening, but it’s ridiculous either way. It’s at 50N!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
17 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 12z?...because it turns into a gem the further ahead it goes..for the majority..where is the Atlantic long term?? ..dead in the water! ☀️ 

 

E1045C42-7627-457B-8875-D9C0EFDE4A06.png

73447605-6965-489C-B1D3-6A028117415F.png

200222BF-178D-405B-8852-97E6F589234A.png

Aye, karl . . . the Atlantic is 'all at sea'. I'll get my coat!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Just now, mb018538 said:

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

I’m fast getting to the point where I’m not even looking at ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

Djokovic under the roof for opening match on centre

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m fast getting to the point where I’m not even looking at ECM.

It’s ghastly tonight. I won’t take it as gospel as we have other runs that are fairly good too. No agreement, so no confidence at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is very poor for the south. Trough gets stuck and inches of rain. Scotland and Ireland looks best here!

The ECM is determined to target us with those lows. Frustrating as most other parts of Europe are under the 10 degrees isotherm or above.Its still singing from it's own hymn sheet but the GFS may also come to the same conclusion over the coming days if today's trends are anything to go off.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Surely that low on the ECM won't verify like that. By D2 it's SW of Cornwall. It travels slowly through the north of France until D6. Then, it goes back the way it came by D9!!!

Will be a first. Suppose there's a first for everything. 

A walk in the Highlands will be nice next week...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hi folks, the upcoming period has really high uncertainty.  I just want to put that out there before commenting on the 12z runs.

First UKMO T144:

0494718F-F51A-400A-8005-557FD05B614A.thumb.gif.9761d085a4d0cef92307aafd1a2f5558.gif

Looking good, but it is FI because if you look at GFS at same time:

06C75187-5708-472D-9E0F-5CCD19A647F1.thumb.png.e7d3420edfda8f5e3219017ebd798cf8.png

Big differences.  The GEM is a decent run, here it is:

animiqr9.gif

I’m not bothering with ECM!   The point I wanted to make is that the operational output is very likely wrong after about T120 at the moment, so it is worth while having some longer term guidance like @Tamara has just posted.  Glass half full for me, for summer weather into July.  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

My advice is never take any operational as gospel!..but by the same token, never take any perturbations as gospel!... ...so the lesson is, never take any chart as gospel...hope that helps! ...on the other hand, early July might be really summery? ☀️  

5C7BEA5D-E023-4276-8367-F72746DDEFBE.thumb.png.d04d77ce3580ceb5aefb28a5b53deda6.png8083B224-98CA-4419-9D7F-AA91973FD480.thumb.png.967da7a6ba76d71a0637309be7db2356.png3C0D6583-98E6-4F66-B44A-83722D69BF0E.thumb.png.2451a8308d4557e88b9e738407888044.png95DE4322-1949-4D03-A24F-AFE5FA39EB1D.thumb.png.f094a9ed462a6ada4a65a6c79b5d5801.pngC84CC807-9DFB-428C-9201-0671A154087D.thumb.png.24826324319c80407d62c3b81994f717.pngA9802C4E-015A-4D62-939C-97686C28875F.thumb.png.8f342fd10dcf92b94b62b58b7009c595.pngC97D9E33-E8EB-4FC1-B50C-FD82FD8399B9.thumb.png.fd7b5b729dbe8000c4a71336f15090cf.png7BB1A937-BCA5-4E6D-A673-DABDA94B4A47.thumb.png.949250ad6cd9817647d5b9861f89a3cb.png1CCCC317-1F0E-4FAE-96D8-FC940DDA0B4F.thumb.png.7ca67c043ad7fc17f7bdefc1ffceb510.png2CA8D258-1956-46A7-A80E-FEDF1BF66CA1.thumb.jpeg.2dfd462c7343615663566e1f95868c0f.jpeg

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
49 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The ECM is determined to target us with those lows. Frustrating as most other parts of Europe are under the 10 degrees isotherm or above.Its still singing from it's own hymn sheet but the GFS may also come to the same conclusion over the coming days if today's trends are anything to go off.

Totally not supported by the anomalies though. They are strongly indicating high pressure in the medium term.

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