Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Scorcher]

56 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well....one of these is going to be very wrong!

I'm definitely backing the anomalies at that range- no contest. And sod's law is not a good enough reason to back that op run, even if Alderc says so.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the mid / longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean, the 850’s (uppers) improve, they become quite respectable for the height of summer and there’s scope for something very warm or indeed hot?..as for pressure, on balance it doesn’t look particularly high so the weather would probably be mixed with some fine spells but also a risk of showers, some heavy and thundery, but that doesn’t preclude higher pressure and more settled conditions?.....  anyway, at least there’s support for gradually warmer temperatures?...so it should feel like summer???!!..sorry for being a bit vague, I’m just an amateur enthusiast..anyway, it’s a mean, it’s broad brushstrokes...  !!!     

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Howie]

I don't understand why this trough won't just f off, what a horrible turn of events 

[northwestsnow]

Such a shame Matt doesn't post on here ..

I follow him on twitter but its not the same.

I find his analysis and thoughts a great read 

As it stands, the further north and west you head next week the drier looks a good shout ..maybe quite warm too.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean gradually improves, for a time... (if you are hoping for fine weather)?..and early July has some great potential!...however, the signals are mixed, that’s undeniable! ? ⛈ ? ? 

Edited June 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Well we know which one will be wrong! The one showing the fine and settled conditions…..

Again model disparity really leads to settled, fine and warm conditions. Given where we were at mid month summers having a shocking second half to the month down here.

It's getting tiresome how you constantly pick the worse possible outcome as the most likely to be correct! This is Winter in reverse,if it shows cold it ain't happening!...Thats not how Weather works. Can you imagine pro forecasters coming on to say....the forecast is uncertain,but the worse case scenario is most likely to happen,because its the UK!

I can see some similarities from the ECM mean and those NOA charts that Mushy and JH so thankfully update us on in detail..yes the trough is a pain towards the South,it could be slower to clear,but that doesn't mean its the most like scenario based on the...(if it can go wrong,it will go wrong philosophy).

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

This morning's GFS is not shaping up so badly: possible thunderstorms in the south? What more could one want?

    

[sheikhy]

Latest gfs 06z at 192 hours looks more like the anomalies mushyman posted so a bit of postivity there!!maybe its not over just yet and we still got a bit of hope!!

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Latest gfs 06z at 192 hours looks more like the anomalies mushyman posted so a bit of postivity there!!maybe its not over just yet and we still got a bit of hope!!

Looks better than a lot of the 00z output, but only because we get sandwiched between troughs either side:




 

[johnholmes]

It is interesting to see the differing possible outcomes from various outputs, the synoptic outputs, ensembles and the 500 mb anomaly charts. Another one to look at in the time scale most are interested in is the extended surface and 500 mb output from the UK model, see below

Click on T+144 for charts out to 30 June 2021

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

---

UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

As one can see the UK Met is a sort of in between. Whether it would lean to the 6-10 NOAA output will become known in a few days time!

All very interesting. Of course you all know my preference for what the upper air pattern could be 6-10 days or 14 days down the line!

But I do also prefer the ECMWF version to be near the NOAA output for complete confidence. Currently this is not the case as you can see below. 24 hours ago it did have an upper ridge over the UK but has now pushed it east! But it does seem a more variable model that NOAA so I would edge towards its output. After all I have been using these charts on a daily basis for 12+ years. They are not always correct but at 6-10 days period about 70-75% correct winter and summer for the upper air pattern to be close to what they show.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by johnholmes
tidying up

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Well....one of these is going to be very wrong!

Not really, that GFS chart isnt too far off what the Anomalies are predicting, its amplified the Atlantic trough which has increased the southwesterly flowover the UK compared to the anomalies. The broader pattern though is pretty similar for the UK.

[Frosty.]

Please forgive me for being an optimistic swine! ...but there are some very good signals in early July within the GEFS 6z...for sure, there’s some crap signals to..but I will leave that to others to amplify!

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

But I do also prefer the ECMWF version to be near the NOAA output for complete confidence. Currently this is not the case as you can see below. 24 hours ago it did have an upper ridge over the UK but has now pushed it east! But it does seem a more variable model that NOAA so I would edge towards its output. After all I have been using these charts on a daily basis for 12+ years. They are not always correct but at 6-10 days period about 70-75% correct winter and summer for the upper air pattern to be close to what they show.

 

 

I dont like the ECM anomalies, because they vary so much. I prefer the usual consistency of the NOAAs , if i wanted inconsistency id stick with the ops, lol.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

 if i wanted inconsistency id stick with the ops, lol.

Or the mean..which is the average.. ...go figure..lol ?  

Edited June 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mushymanrob]

Well lets have a look at the anomalies, see what they suggest and watch over the next 12 days or so how they perform.

They suggest troughing will be out in the mid atlantic, so not over the UK (but a short lived minor event like a plume breakdown is possible)
They show the jet stream tracking north of the UK and over northern scandinavia
They show a positive pressure anomaly over the UK and to our east.
They show a rather slack mean upper flow from the southwest.

They also suggest troughing over the azores, which when phased with the high to our east would suggest to me anyway, an occassional plume and a more southerly sourced surface flow.

As i see it, and i may be wrong, these charts suggest broadly a warmer and drier summery  settled outlook for this period, possibly even hot at times, so a lot of very pleasant summery weather at least. The only fly in the ointment is a possible thundery spell, short lived, but that could deliver a lot of rain in a short space of time.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well lets have a look at the anomalies, see what they suggest and watch over the next 12 days or so how they perform.

They suggest troughing will be out in the mid atlantic, so not over the UK (but a short lived minor event like a plume breakdown is possible)
They show the jet stream tracking north of the UK and over northern scandinavia
They show a positive pressure anomaly over the UK and to our east.
They show a rather slack mean upper flow from the southwest.

They also suggest troughing over the azores, which when phased with the high to our east would suggest to me anyway, an occassional plume and a more southerly sourced surface flow.

As i see it, and i may be wrong, these charts suggest broadly a warmer and drier summery  settled outlook for this period, possibly even hot at times, so a lot of very pleasant summery weather at least. The only fly in the ointment is a possible thundery spell, short lived, but that could deliver a lot of rain in a short space of time.

And along with what Mushy says the ext mean anomalies this morning are indicating a substantial Scandy ridge which is not bad news for the UK

 

[Methuselah]

Aye, it looks like warmth all the way . . . But will it be a washout in Bournemouth?

    

    

    

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

And along with what Mushy says the ext mean anomalies this morning are indicating a substantial Scandy ridge which is not bad news for the UK

 

I would go further... ..maybe a scandy / Azores ridge link up is possible?...whoa frosty..now that’s just insanity! ..chill out mate..now I’m talking too myself..well I am autistic! My head just exploded ...bye gang..  

Edited June 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles look fine, to me:    

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

ECM looks wet for those living in the South but dryer and warmer further North you go especially for Scotland, but hey ho how often do those in South enjoy sun and warmth in Summer while Scotland is always influenced from low pressure. 

GFS cant make up its mind if it wants a heatwave or stick a trough over head. 

UKMO "likely" a ridge will build from the East in their latest 10 day trend. 

 

Who should we trust? 

[Tamara]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well lets have a look at the anomalies, see what they suggest and watch over the next 12 days or so how they perform.

They suggest troughing will be out in the mid atlantic, so not over the UK (but a short lived minor event like a plume breakdown is possible)
They show the jet stream tracking north of the UK and over northern scandinavia
They show a positive pressure anomaly over the UK and to our east.
They show a rather slack mean upper flow from the southwest.

They also suggest troughing over the azores, which when phased with the high to our east would suggest to me anyway, an occassional plume and a more southerly sourced surface flow.

As i see it, and i may be wrong, these charts suggest broadly a warmer and drier summery  settled outlook for this period, possibly even hot at times, so a lot of very pleasant summery weather at least. The only fly in the ointment is a possible thundery spell, short lived, but that could deliver a lot of rain in a short space of time.

Boa tarde

As per the other day, the heat is ratcheting up once more this week here an hour from the Sliver coast in Portugal. A probable 32/33C today and a notch up to 34/35C tomorrow.

Your summary is a very good one - I realise that there is bound to be a lot of micro analysis when it comes to the UK and regional interests, but these other commentaries paint a rather bleaker reality than the bigger macro scale suggests.

I would be encouraged by the recent holding pattern not having gone a step further with the Atlantic ridging pattern of late, which is wholly typical of a lull in the tropical>extra tropical cycle.  The key word here is 'cycle' - and July continues to hold widespread promise for those who like warmth/heat in their summer.

What is key is that peak summer wavelengths, allied to the lack of any sustained -ve inertia within the atmosphere, and which was covered in a lot of analysis the other day, look set to augment a subtle eastward shift in the pattern, with time, and set up something of a weak -NAO signature in the Atlantic, but crucially disconnected to a mainly +AO polar profile. The main jet stream to the north, as accurately depicted in the quoted summary, having that slight split flow aspect to reinforce the weak troughing close towards the Azores area.

Once in place, there should be dalliances between the troughing to the west and south west and the ridging over and to the east. This implies thundery interest from time to time but with a southerly or south easterly vector implied, this is a much more appealing prospect than the short term pattern of downpours within a cooler regime that looks set to cover southern england and the immediate continent across the channel.

The noise from some quarters suggesting cyclonic impacts for UK/NW Europe heading into next month continues to look overstated to me - and requires a wider overview of the GSDM diagnostic than any narrower formulaic perceptions based on AAM levels - without looking at the actual wind-flow plots and seeing where the wind-flow disparities lie. An attempt was made to do this the other day in some detail. .

Vey encouraging that extended range NWP continues to evolve its modelling identifying the suggested diagnostic (as mentioned last time around) - and points to greater Scandinavian influences in the peak summer month to come. Still very much on watch for some significant heat to build northwards through southern and south western europe and expand thereafter northwards. Such an evolving pattern is ideal for such a progression

In the meantime therefore, don't let micro scale details that are shorter term cloud the bigger picture. Enjoy the summer 

[northwestsnow]

36 Degrees in Poland today...

Certainly a plume of hot air for central and Southern Europe...

[Frosty.]

I feel the time is right to wheel out the JMA 0h??? ..yes it is!!!!!!!!!!!    ..I luv the Japanese  

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[sheikhy]

Here we go again back towards settled and very warm!!ukmo looks pretty darn goood this evening!!higher pressure as well!!

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Here we go again back towards settled and very warm!!ukmo looks pretty darn goood this evening!!higher pressure as well!!

Chuckle brothers isn’t it…..to me, to you!