Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Lance M said:

What would that mean for our summer? Aka, are there examples of past years when this has happened that can be looked at?

Generally hot Moscow summers mean we end up under a trough, although I think 2018 the warmth was shared across Europe east to west. 

[Frosty.]

Broadsword calling Danny boy..come in coldies..are you receiving me..over?...whatever!. ...for sure there are still a few cold perturbations on the 6z ..anyhoo, as I said before, if it warms up..good.. if we see another cold shot..good..I’m open to all eventualities! ..,or am I?..go figure!   

Edited April 18, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Danny Boy calling Broadsword:    

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Generally hot Moscow summers mean we end up under a trough, although I think 2018 the warmth was shared across Europe east to west. 

Cheers! I suspected 'trough' might be the general answer. Good point RE 2018, I remember it being an absolutely huge area of HP that year between here and Russia which was very resistant to any attempts by the jet stream to bring any fronts in

[Frosty.]

Hey guys..I officially don’t like the ECM 0z ensemble mean @T+240 hours!!!!...this coldie would rather see a plume  / plum already god dammit!!!!!..or even a peach..  !  

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

And the Man From Del Monte says: 'Mmmm, not too sure about that':

    

[minus10]

The warm air to the south is being constantly squeezed further south by the bullyboy hp to the north on the GFS 12z run. 

allowing a cold trough/lp to form over us..

We may get some (cold) rain out of this but it wont be very nice. Better make the most out of the next couple of days if this run is anything to go by. Today felt very nice in the sun, almost summer like . Maybe it will all change by the 18z.........or the 0z.

 

[Methuselah]

If only this were at Day 6, instead of 16!

    

Still, it might be enough to spark some interest from the Daily Excess: Britain to swelter, as temperatures are set to rival those found on the surface of Venus!

Edited April 18, 2021 by General Cluster

[Jordan S]

20 minutes ago, minus10 said:

The warm air to the south is being constantly squeezed further south by the bullyboy hp to the north on the GFS 12z run. 

allowing a cold trough/lp to form over us..

We may get some (cold) rain out of this but it wont be very nice. Better make the most out of the next couple of days if this run is anything to go by. Today felt very nice in the sun, almost summer like . Maybe it will all change by the 18z.........or the 0z.

 

Some hill snow too by the looks of it if that low where to happen as shown, the end of the Gfs update although likely to change ofcourse, does offer something warmer returning just as general cluster has noted.

[Frigid]

GFS 12z ensembles now looking much cooler than previous runs, though the OP is an outlier. Seems like it can't make up its mind whether to go mild or cool. Note that this would most likely give us the coldest April since 1989.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Frigid

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Frigid said:

GFS 12z ensembles now looking much cooler than previous runs, though the OP is an outlier. Seems like it can't make up its mind whether to go mild or cool. Note that this would most likely give us the coldest April since 1989.

Agreed, just had a look through the 12z ensembles and there are many, indeed most showing below average temperatures, even a few very unseasonably cold members....this is one coldie who would like to see some plume potential now!!!!   ...that’s probably the end of my sacra membership now..lol..  

[minus10]

Just what would we give for a chart like this in January!

Even Susan Powell looks exaporated...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Just what would we give for a chart like this in January!

Even Susan Powell looks exaporated...

I think if it were January, somehow it would be complete opposite a low where the high is

[Snow Queen one]

46 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Agreed, just had a look through the 12z ensembles and there are many, indeed most showing below average temperatures, even a few very unseasonably cold members....this is one coldie who would like to see some plume potential now!!!!   ...that’s probably the end of my sacra membership now..lol..  

Jon there's always a membership for you in SACRA  

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240:

It does look like a cold end to the month of April, maybe even some more snow for some if the high pressure shifts far enough away.  What’s next who knows, but I’m betting on a big resurgence to heat, bit like happened in 2018 mid April, but later this year.  Might have to go through an unsettled wet spell first though.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Very much Atlantic ridge of various sorts.  T264+ - just one cluster, so they haven’t a clue.  Well neither do most of us with this scenario, clearly the cold can’t go on for ever, something must change, but I’m seeing nothing until in to May now. 

[damianslaw]

 A milder but similiar week to the last two on the cards, plenty of dry sunny weather, very little precipitation if any for many.. latter stages of the month, clear signal heights to the NW, and a cool end and most likely more unsettled.

[Daniel*]

There’s definitely been a consolidation on a cool end to April impressive coverage across Europe, in France they’re on course to have their coolest April in 27 years the U.K. 32 years so an exceptional month might not seem it but April has experienced greatest warming the number of frosts has been quite something and we’re certainly not done yet.

[mb018538]

The dry April shows no signs of abating for the next week, though perhaps signs of a change in weather pattern as we approach the end of the month. High pressure could finally retrograde back into the mid Atlantic, with a trough moving into our neck of the woods:



Temperatures no great shakes after tomorrow either, cooler air never far away with high pressure out to the west and a flow between N and E pulling the cold our way.

Perhaps April showers will be replaced by May showers this year.

[Methuselah]

I think the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles 'suggest' something a little better:

    

Best not we start writing off summer, six weeks' before it even starts?

[mb018538]

Wouldn't be spring without a good dose of high lat northern blocking setting up:



Never particularly good if you like warm and settled weather. I suspect many will welcome a bit of rain, but this kind of set up usually puts any proper warmth on the back burner.
 

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I think the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles 'suggest' something a little better:

    

Best not we start writing off summer, six weeks' before it even starts?

Yes as you say General a very modest improvement from temp ensembles towards the latter stages but no real improvement with presipitation. Still relatively dry outlook

I noticed that the ground is either very dry and dusty or solid where the clay had hardened off. Ideally a steady warming with some rain in the mix would be good but somehow i dont think the weather does requests....maybe worth keeping half an eye on the warmth to the se though...

Doesnt look.like coming our way presently but , hey,  stranger things etc etc...

[mushymanrob]

On 17/04/2021 at 09:48, mushymanrob said:

  Just look at the current 00z GFS, and how its suckering in people who want warmth when the anomaly charts do not support the 00z gfs... as far as im concerned, the gfs 00z is wrong, it has a very remote chance of happening especially when the current ECM runs are nuch closer to the Anomalies.

 

 

So yet again the NOAA charts very much like prevailing over the previous GFS prediction of warmth... sadly...

[Timmytour]

Seems to be like a genuine warm up is being put back to May 17th......to coincide with when we are allowed back inside of a pub!

[Methuselah]

Day 5 doesn't look too bad: a fair amount of sunshine, light winds and temps mostly a couple of degrees either side of 15C?

    

It's still only April, after all!

Edited April 19, 2021 by General Cluster