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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Just to illustrate

This chart is from the 10th, it covers the 6-10 day period of which today, the 18th is mid point.

This chart clearly has the UK under low pressure , the current gfs rolling out now for midday today shows that the Anomaly chart is very close. Its not about "right" or "wrong" but abot degrees of accuracy and the anomaly charts are seldom far out from the solution.

610hghts.20210610.fcst.gif

GFSAVGEU06_6_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
4 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

We've had the beautiful weaather for a few week but eventually the British weather wins out in the end. 

The green snot for the technical term to bring... 

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.4538c63b3d59156addfc20bf1bb57773.pnggfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.0f4db6141e1c717640436ffdc4809941.png1548862163_gfsnh-0-192(1).thumb.png.332827a0f659958d8715eaff2ca12d74.png

Rain

gfseuw-2-258.thumb.png.8511cbc7abb7d233ff9c9a0b96f0fa1d.png

Welcome to the British Summer, it last for a week the rest is Autumn. 

No need to panic about charts 10 days hence, especially rainfall charts. For the same date from latest GFS:

image.thumb.png.767392aef89c2e511a546847c051a3c7.png

To me the medium term semi-reliable outlook isn't looking too bad at all:

image.thumb.png.ca1150b56ec65abe52e28a8b19a00958.pngimage.thumb.png.dc94226851c8a5e1af7119bd39987c26.pngimage.thumb.png.0bd0f2b3d61bb163995e1236d8492ff3.png  

And the longer term outlook is, as always, FI, with currently no particularly strong signals for anything -  we might see a summery spell, we might see a 'May '21 revisit', or we might just see standard UK summertime weather.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO carries from this mornings run..

No sign of any green snot ..

Lovely.

image.thumb.png.9aff8fe8c963adf4a84ebb81cdae67de.png

Unexpectedly good 144 chart. Again relies on some precise trough splitting either side of the UK but would be most welcome after the deluge today and the coming days!

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Unexpectedly good 144 chart. Again relies on some precise trough splitting either side of the UK but would be most welcome after the deluge today and the coming days!

On Monday, the UKMO 144 was showing 23C uppers for Sunday!

Hoping UKMO is correct this time, but I’d like to see some support from the other models.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Well what a washout today. Had 45mm of rain here which is more than the average total for the month of June for Hertfordshire..and only 14 deg !!

GFS 12z is showing some promise though .....more thundery set ups to clip Kent again..

image.thumb.png.f4fe8b2bbb0dc06d43da66971249ecc8.pngimage.thumb.png.915f445000b1c1de142b6a40ea625a53.pngimage.thumb.png.ec105eef210dc8b4693b9e5cc10bc052.png

Along with the UKMO they show that maybe summer (or at least warm air ) can make a return.

The plants : well Day of the Triffids is coming....be warned  ....

image.thumb.png.e02ba5b287984f3a5d12bbd6c767391c.png

Edited by minus10
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Certainly seems to be an improving picture in the T120-240hr range. Looks less likely a trough will become anchored over the UK. In fact  looking at the UKMO and GFS wouldn't take too much tweaking/evolution to start opening the furnace door to the south/south east. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the warmth continues right into early July. I think we might even get off snot-free!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Yep models were given Claritin first thing this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well not too bad on the 12Zs, surprisingly, if a little chilly first thing Tuesday/Wednesday!

Hard to believe all the UK trough solutions for next week could disappear just like that, though. I'll reserve final judgement until the morning

Judging by the lack of Atlantic activity, I'd say a good chance developing of another warm or hot spell before the month ends 

Edited by Man Without Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM not as good. Trough involved and plenty of rain around:

8E3C6E2C-21DD-4F20-83A2-9ECECE139E6C.thumb.jpeg.084a515919fe8d3f5fabb4e0a3319061.jpegE4B13D89-587D-4309-841B-2324A1A7E24B.thumb.jpeg.3cad61ee3f3425181adbfdb40d0727d9.jpeg

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM not as good. Trough involved and plenty of rain around:

8E3C6E2C-21DD-4F20-83A2-9ECECE139E6C.thumb.jpeg.084a515919fe8d3f5fabb4e0a3319061.jpegE4B13D89-587D-4309-841B-2324A1A7E24B.thumb.jpeg.3cad61ee3f3425181adbfdb40d0727d9.jpeg

Not sure what’s worse this evening ECM or England

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Outlook to day 10 a little odd with an upper low generally dominant but not up to much. Out to day 8 this looks like a generally cool setup before pulling some warmer uppers further out.

image.thumb.png.70b4d21dadf58654e4876f2b20fd6d20.png
 

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

 

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All very Meh this morning through the next 7-9days as weak troughing is back trough the end of next week on GFS and more especially of GEM before it finally warms up nicely before the end of the month. 
 

Has to be said there’s potential for a couple more horribly cold June days Mon/Tues with parts of the south stuck under a decaying front and temps on the longest day could struggle to get beyond 12-14C, which is exceptionally low for late June.

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Hmmm both UKMO and ECM not great either this morning in the 144-168 range and both have a large regressing high pulling right back into the central Atlantic and troughing dropping back into the UK. Could be a painful period coming up IMO. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Horrific ecm. Gotta be an outlier! 

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7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Agreed. No way that is happening.

I hope so, we keep saying that won’t happen but look where we are now, max temp 14C yesterday, same Monday/Tuesday likely. All the models have a large regressing high, seems the most likely outcome to me despite the model inconsistencies. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
14 minutes ago, draztik said:

If a model isn’t showing you what you want to see, it has to be wrong.

Not really - just saying that in that run, it’s a perfect storm in that everything aligns perfectly badly to produce it. Therefore, the chance of it verifying is very low.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Personally, I can't see what all the fuss is about: once the current cack is out of the way (Thursday?) things look like being pretty average, for early July . . . But then I quite like average; average does me fine, it keeps the prickly heat away!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And the GEFS 00Z temperature ensembles are better than a slap round the face, with a wet fish:

t850Suffolk.png   t2mSuffolk.png

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