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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS 12z not a single sight of green snot anywhere else in the NH but then just as one blob clears incomes another to replace it.  Would be very unfortunate if this run verified and dampened the positive July outlook.  I think its just an outlier. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean and spread T240:

    BF24D149-89FE-4790-B54C-BAE97BB2E20C.thumb.gif.d74764cdc312e011090e3c670df3485e.gif470D6447-8BBC-45FF-927D-8C60482DCCDC.thumb.gif.3f670344968e97b8c2012e204d61dd13.gif

    To me this says trough uncomfortably close but still high chance of moderate to high pressure over the UK.  The uncertainty is west, which is where you want it.  Difference is between a thundery spell of weather or a just rubbish spell of unsettled weather.  This model output supports the former.  The settled spell is over for the time being though.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean and spread T240:

    BF24D149-89FE-4790-B54C-BAE97BB2E20C.thumb.gif.d74764cdc312e011090e3c670df3485e.gif470D6447-8BBC-45FF-927D-8C60482DCCDC.thumb.gif.3f670344968e97b8c2012e204d61dd13.gif

    To me this says trough uncomfortably close but still high chance of moderate to high pressure over the UK.  The uncertainty is west, which is where you want it.  Difference is between a thundery spell of weather or a just rubbish spell of unsettled weather.  This model output supports the former.  The settled spell is over for the time being though.  

    The ensembles are fickle though, we need to remember that. They are nothing more than a guide. Even so, the EC op run looks towards the top of the pack pressure wise in the latter stages. The mean suggests a sort of no-mans land between trough to the N and HP further S...possibly quite a benign W'ly pattern with a few showers, a bit of dry weather and never particularly warm or cool. 

    Essentially the pattern that was advertised by the seasonals. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Wow, that'd be nice. 

    Edit

    Sorry about the order it's gone weird. 

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    Edited by Eagle Eye
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    89FFB616-6874-4875-A575-9923E016FED4.thumb.jpeg.a20d9d6c5f3d5d002e6ecf5cdc4bcab1.jpeg

    The ECM forecast is fairly similar - though with a fall now until the first week of July, I wouldn’t be expecting the second half of the month to be that great. Could be looking at 3 weeks of mainly trough dominated weather now as pacific convection completely dries up, before the MJO starts moving again early July. Probably not on the scale of last summer though.

    AAM convection forecast keeps the convection in the west pacific during July even if strong. Suggests we should we looking for Azores ridging rather than Scandi (albeit at that amplitude even a very displaced Azores High would be golden for heat lovers (drove summer 03 and 13 primarily - 06, 95 and 18 being more Scandi based).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Telling tonight that there is only 1 cluster T192-T240:

    ABFB9C54-E9CF-4FFD-8DEA-85296C10223A.thumb.png.5111b89171abfc45ccd21eb8337a86ab.png

    Best to ignore it.  If there is only one, they pick the run closest to the mean (in theory) .  But in truth the model has no idea.  Uncertainty it rife.  I like that, it is what I do professionally.  But in terms of where we go after the thundery period, I’m all at seas…warm seas though…

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Telling tonight that there is only 1 cluster T192-T240:

    ABFB9C54-E9CF-4FFD-8DEA-85296C10223A.thumb.png.5111b89171abfc45ccd21eb8337a86ab.png

    Best to ignore it.  If there is only one, they pick the run closest to the mean (in theory) .  But in truth the model has no idea.  Uncertainty it rife.  I like that, it is what I do professionally.  But in terms of where we go after the thundery period, I’m all at seas…warm seas though…

    It’s quite unusual for there to be no idea whatsoever about where things may be headed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It’s quite unusual for there to be no idea whatsoever about where things may be headed.

    Welcome to summer! 

    Hey, the models are worse in summer.  Here you can see ECM and GFS performance over many years, it is always worse in summer in the NH:

    8FB92534-1A5F-4037-B12F-F4A1EBEB0A2F.thumb.png.bc6f8d5beaf317bc01956ee4b2a44758.png

    Interestingly though, it is not as clear cut in the SH, pretty random there:

    2B20A714-A0CF-43F2-96D7-973F16FDC324.thumb.png.52f1db34ab32f329bc2e6f8e3cdefe32.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Welcome to summer! 

    Hey, the models are worse in summer.  Here you can see ECM and GFS performance over many years, it is always worse in summer in the NH:

    8FB92534-1A5F-4037-B12F-F4A1EBEB0A2F.thumb.png.bc6f8d5beaf317bc01956ee4b2a44758.png

    Interestingly though, it is not as clear cut in the SH, pretty random there:

    2B20A714-A0CF-43F2-96D7-973F16FDC324.thumb.png.52f1db34ab32f329bc2e6f8e3cdefe32.png

    It just seems worse than usual! I’ve seen a cross between heatwaves, deluges and everything in between!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It just seems worse than usual! I’ve seen a cross between heatwaves, deluges and everything in between!

    Then you need to keep a view of the longer range indicators such as AAM, MJO etc.  As well as the current model output, I think it may be a bit unsettled for the next week or so but there is a clear signal (I think so anyway) for a way out back to warm and settled - I’m bullish by end of the following week, but by July with confidence.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    After some pyrotechnics in the next couple of days for south eastern Britain, the change to more of a westerly regime ,in a good old fashioned way looks very likely....I think too many people on here rely too much on computer models...

    h850t850eu-39.png

    ecmt850.120-8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    After some pyrotechnics in the next couple of days for south eastern Britain, the change to more of a westerly regime ,in a good old fashioned way looks very likely....I think too many people on here rely too much on computer models...

    h850t850eu-39.png

    ecmt850.120-8.png

    Well it is the model thread!

    But it’s a bit hard to rely on them at the moment as they are all over the place.

    My gut feeling is that we won’t be stuck in a westerly pattern for too long.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Very uncertain outlook pinpointing details, models however are showing a marked change afoot as we move into the latter part of June, jetstream shifting to the south enabling cooler air to predominate and a trough to become trapped over the UK with heights to the west and NW holding into into play, as well as to the NE. GFS takes an age to get rid of low pressure, a cyclonic outlook probable. Rest of this week topsy turvy more heat for the SE tomorrow, then a thundery breakdown, further west and north nearer average temps, by Sunday we see the trough anchoring into the UK and a very wet spell could ensue bringing for some the first decent rainfall since late May.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

    AAM convection forecast keeps the convection in the west pacific during July even if strong. Suggests we should we looking for Azores ridging rather than Scandi (albeit at that amplitude even a very displaced Azores High would be golden for heat lovers (drove summer 03 and 13 primarily - 06, 95 and 18 being more Scandi based).

     

    27421E5A-2C27-47B8-AC60-EF9BDF506AC4.thumb.png.d59dc5ef00920dc15c48a04d3d10ee9b.png

    Latest ecm update has a big scandi high dominating. Looks potentially awesome here. But it’s only a forecast….

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Very uncertain outlook pinpointing details, models however are showing a marked change afoot as we move into the latter part of June, jetstream shifting to the south enabling cooler air to predominate and a trough to become trapped over the UK with heights to the west and NW holding into into play, as well as to the NE. GFS takes an age to get rid of low pressure, a cyclonic outlook probable. Rest of this week topsy turvy more heat for the SE tomorrow, then a thundery breakdown, further west and north nearer average temps, by Sunday we see the trough anchoring into the UK and a very wet spell could ensue bringing for some the first decent rainfall since late May.

    Well it does if GFS is to be believed.  I think some of the other models and ensembles have different ideas?  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it does if GFS is to be believed.  I think some of the other models and ensembles have different ideas?  

    I'd be quite happy to have a short lived spell of very wet weather late June in exchange for a mostly fine sunny warm July - we've had a very dry June so far, overdue some rain..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    I'd be quite happy to have a short lived spell of very wet weather late June in exchange for a mostly fine sunny warm July - we've had a very dry June so far, overdue some rain..

    Careful what you wish for in Cumbria!  

    I think that any unsettled spell will indeed be short lived, and I look forward to a sunny July, we will see…

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Euro and GFS out to day 8 do broadly support a continued cyclonic pattern before the Euro joins GEM in supporting a more ridge based outlook.

    GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    vs

    image.thumb.png.e61c8c2724f6e790d403ce99119a455a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Hey guys and good evening,not posted much as i have been enjoying this fine warm/hot spell of weather and it urges me to get out and about doing stuffs like gardening and going to the park walking the dog,meeting distant friends that i have not seen in 18 months,...it's been a slog i can tell ya but you can still enjoy this fine weather with the odd BBQ thrown in

    we all can't have it all can we it's the British weather:-IE a few days of warm/hot weather then a breakdown,...there is plenty of summer to tap into😏

    i have been lurking for a good while in here and it has been great reading all of the post's leading upto this fine spell but at times it comes with a bang,i do wish that there is a good show of fireworks come the midweek onwards,...it adds to the excitement in MOD

    finally,what i have noticed over the last few days is that this trough modelled out west is struggling to get past the UK with a block over or near towards Scandi(Sceuro block) so we have every chance that we engage more of the same as in terms of plumes from the south

    that's me done for now,enjoy your storms in the S/SE but i am willing to travel to get my fix from Fri afternoon to Sun evening

    have fun,...laters😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    27421E5A-2C27-47B8-AC60-EF9BDF506AC4.thumb.png.d59dc5ef00920dc15c48a04d3d10ee9b.png

    Latest ecm update has a big scandi high dominating. Looks potentially awesome here. But it’s only a forecast….

    Certainly correct at the moment!

    So we're into a short period of uncertainty between tomorrow night and Sunday. The models keep us just out of reach from the main plume, and also just out of reach of the main trough. Result is an unstable warm flow. Temperatures and outcomes up for grabs each day, areas under cloud/rain (maybe thunder?) for a prolonged period could be rather cool, but if dodging those areas, temperatures could still shoot up into the mid 20s. Good job it isn't a snow chase, nerves would be getting seriously frayed with frontal bands moving constantly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GFS showing something 'interesting' pushing N overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Looks like heavy rainfall with embedded lightning activity

    image.thumb.png.0a085881965f9d0485164e39f9500157.png

    image.thumb.png.d45e8b73646ed049cfe5af63a32d9a3c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    GFS rolling out only 60% done and so far looks identical to the 12z, nothing else but big green blob closing over the UK next weekend. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the longer term Gfs 0z operational towards the end of June, there’s another plume, followed by the Azores high ridging in for early July?...that would be a good result for summer fans wouldn’t it?!!! 😉....in the meantime, here come the storms...let’s get ready to rumble! 🤔 😯 ⛈ 

    6797FB95-8A75-4932-BF45-A0C0F00FBC31.thumb.png.d77e15930d8c7ea37ec1aa06ae93bea4.png3FC256FD-4A33-4378-ADC7-3A4781919A70.thumb.png.190f6ce3ca9b2a9b46389883c128a8da.pngC6CD3D97-10B4-42FD-B64A-6B715AF92DEF.thumb.png.990c1aa6120373c5c0a58524a3531538.pngE1948608-B376-4396-B2AF-E6DD90617FB8.thumb.png.c9e33c3c978b1eb5c880aabc66b465bb.png813B4FF7-D983-485D-8298-90ABED546732.thumb.png.4391ecb5180288fa6e52ddc108915d04.png316D7C98-7B05-445D-9D72-14B38B64C553.thumb.png.da4747c41e9c9ea4f171f9743c0a656c.png88A0F93F-95DF-4910-9EE6-810FFC6B08E2.thumb.png.e2c6ada58c8a172a0fef917f108fd738.png64E97801-4F66-4847-B4E2-5641F8D165F5.thumb.png.7292e42b1b563bf9f1f3727514bf22e3.pngDE223E01-FE9F-454B-BCC2-ECC15027337A.thumb.png.cfe38b348907e4b3be5d555fe8312478.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    image.thumb.png.0e3c0957de8d72e26e1d31cdf1331bf1.pngimage.thumb.png.8dc8565ed89ce7f88ddc0aa6ffa99b7b.png

    After what could be a very wet week to come, it looks a fair bit drier thereafter - tying into a general rise in pressure. 

    ECM is having a lay in it appears - no 00z run today!

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