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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    18 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    The 06z has NO support from the anomalies, so ignore it, its not worth getting all het up and anxious about

    Too bee 🐝 honest, I thought the 6z op was an outliner.. 🤔..cheers mushy..but I also appreciate there are plenty of members who don’t like heat, so I’m just trying too bee 🐝 balanced..meanwhile there’s plenty of media buzz 😯  about the hot weather isn’t there?! 😉  

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

    Wow, this won’t be popular, indeed I will be surprised if 1person likes this 🤔..but the 6z op becomes much cooler and more unsettled from Friday..please don’t shoot the messenger, I’m just trying too be fair and balanced..not something I’m good at, apparently..even so, I feel I’ve broken the shackles of my optimism..if that makes sense? 🤔 ! 😯 ..have another drink mate.. 🥤 😉 

    48FB85F0-9CCA-48C9-9C3D-8CADEDFB5CF5.thumb.png.00198e495d5c529b26db4f4dc94559ba.png7733CCEC-10A2-48C2-80EC-32AE516DDB87.thumb.png.1f70e22bcf7065c807fb08c178469f69.png

    Looks like temps could be struggling to get into double digits for Markyo!

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    Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
    37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    The 06z has NO support from the anomalies, so ignore it, its not worth getting all het up and anxious about

    TBH the last four runs of the GFS all have unsettled weather at some point, I think a breakdown of cooler and unsettled weather in the second half of June is inevitable, it's just a question of when and how unsettled it will be.

    IMG_1314.PNG

    IMG_1315.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Honestly guys, the GEFS 6z mean longer term doesn’t look to bad, there’s signs of ridging there 🤔 , and not much trough influence, not like in  May, which was trough dominated!...indeed, there’s some support for high pressure to build in again towards the end of June / early July!...whilst I personally like summery weather very much!!, I  fully appreciate that some don’t !!..so I say, good luck to everyone.. 🤔 😯...hope y’all get what you want! 😛 

    32C9F838-4353-415E-BEE7-13BFEA09526D.thumb.png.cb62c7749071aaab4e81201dd70fd6b5.pngA6782FD7-F3F7-4E23-B5AC-4273095B5AB0.thumb.png.2700e11c6503cd32925894ef07408cd3.pngD715918C-D8F7-4D50-B9F3-964C74854C24.thumb.png.86d45e8ddded01a6bd39fb0b71bb4173.png26050748-8474-4B0E-A656-0F4E64DA4CFE.thumb.png.2239b583e28aa4f2605d336323aa19ed.png2F73015B-E8D2-4526-844B-7774C34EFE33.thumb.png.516390fddfa21c27c6ff6904aecb34ce.pngED6C57AE-7C82-419B-9456-586196DDA58F.thumb.png.6dd957f5475a6aab69f53f2b59d814a1.pngD76C85B6-5D70-4788-926F-ADA62F3EBFE1.thumb.png.21cda0b5a0f0b898f761b5476114b2db.png5D87D6C6-AA78-45C2-80F3-AA7958DE91B7.thumb.png.46880a84d82904223d4c6f98d9cc8244.png50C76A17-A3D3-40FD-B6F4-07038998999F.thumb.png.8a81da6d343e8ff83c833b9471aec51e.png 

     

    743F85EB-38BD-4851-A33A-F342158435FB.png

    Yep, don’t trust the op runs beyond T120 at the moment, remember that model accuracy is always worse in the summer than winter, i know it sometimes doesn’t seem that way when we’re chasing an easterly, but generally it is true.  So best not to worry too much about what happens beyond next Thursday.  On an aside, I can’t remember any previous time an England win has made me this happy - it is like a return to normality although obviously a year late….great summer beckons, I think…and that is not hopecasting, the long rangers back it up as I have posted before.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    Posted (edited)

    Well whatever the weather has in store i can say that today has been a lovely day down here in the south. Blue sky day , 28 degrees, cider in the sun,  barbi  and England getting through first stages of Euro with a sterling effort from Raheem and the team (appreciate not all members are in England).

    Just felt nice to do kind of what we used to..just caught your Post Mike, same feeling. Also the potential for storms in the week. Just for now, it couldnt get much better. Only the fact that i have run out of cider...😃

     

    Edited by minus10
    Meant to say England winning their first game, must be the cider!
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Always love a bit of uncertainty. U.K. trough or this…

    image.thumb.gif.6844a5c522d02cb8b7a62f4857626779.gif
     

    Certainly a better outcome though the pressure rise at the end of the week brings the risk of mist/low cloud into eastern parts for a time.

    The day 6 temperature profile looks teasing to say the least with the 16c isotherm approaching the south east. The GFS looks to have made a decent shift west too albeit still with showers and longer spells of rain passing through.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well, GFS has gone really deep  south with the trough T126:

    2565D62A-05B9-4DD1-8728-53FCB7BB5E2E.thumb.png.dbe899da56e27f7e72418bf438f7f89f.png

    Kind of backs up UKMO thoughts, T144:

    7269C74D-E30E-4F64-BE8B-86303EB10581.thumb.gif.1f04076460863035b21f35a743de191d.gif

    Early doors so far, but looks like the 12z runs might be backing the low west and going for the plume.  Different to the morning runs.  We will see, but we know, don’t we, that  the 0z runs favour the Atlantic?  Although why has never been established.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Split flow causing problems as usual. UKMO looks really good at 144!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM close to closing off that low at T144:

    1C0D0137-1740-47E2-A4AB-6BB3A528039F.thumb.png.d33b22e9cf9874b67e6f30e8121f5fa0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Even though the trough is over us at 240 on Gfs12z there is a considerable amount of heat to our s/e, e , n/e that could be tapped into....

    image.thumb.png.be88e6d8767495e349be07066b388642.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ukmo 12h T+144 hours just screams WOW WOW WOW!!!..do I really need to elaborate???!!!! 🤔 😯 ☀️ 🥵...for the SE it’s EPIC!!...and adds longevity to their hot / humid spell into the following week?! 👍 

    A3520C5B-EF47-45B3-B93F-5ECC8921CF97.thumb.gif.95743d57561e072e6c89629657361119.gif4692E488-D083-4A2B-87F6-CE870A171592.thumb.gif.470c1389a86da0df0c7ee225cfb70753.gif

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The Ukmo 12h T+144 hours just scream WOW WOW WOW!!!..do I really need to elaborate???!!!! 🤔 😯 ☀️ 🥵...for the SE it’s EPIC!!...and adds longevity to their hot / humid spell into the following week?! 👍 

    A3520C5B-EF47-45B3-B93F-5ECC8921CF97.thumb.gif.95743d57561e072e6c89629657361119.gif4692E488-D083-4A2B-87F6-CE870A171592.thumb.gif.470c1389a86da0df0c7ee225cfb70753.gif

    but thing being overlooked is the worring rain on Thursday for the NW Midlands, timed right for the day too, why can it not be timed for night between say 5pm and 7am, but no, seems to be always timed for the day

    Thursday needs watching for Staffs/W Midlands

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    UKMO12z is certainly of interest but not yet supported by the 0z or 12z models.

    Looking at the 12z GFS and GEM today we do see support for a cyclonic pattern however while the GEM has a strong jet stream, the GFS stalls, weakens and absorbs the low near us.

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

    GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    UKMO12z is certainly of interest but not yet supported by the 0z or 12z models.

    Looking at the 12z GFS and GEM today we do see support for a cyclonic pattern however while the GEM has a strong jet stream, the GFS stalls, weakens and absorbs the low near us.

    GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

    GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

    If ECM goes with it, then I think it'll be game on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
    51 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    The Ukmo 12h T+144 hours just screams WOW WOW WOW!!!..do I really need to elaborate???!!!! 🤔 😯 ☀️ 🥵...for the SE it’s EPIC!!...and adds longevity to their hot / humid spell into the following week?! 👍 

    A3520C5B-EF47-45B3-B93F-5ECC8921CF97.thumb.gif.95743d57561e072e6c89629657361119.gif4692E488-D083-4A2B-87F6-CE870A171592.thumb.gif.470c1389a86da0df0c7ee225cfb70753.gif

    Classic summer plume that,

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Yes peeplies, the future is orange! It mightn't be a 1976 redux, but at least it's interesting?  🍊😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM closer to GFS up to T144, with no major buildback of heights from Europe. UKMO probably pulling out one of its random runs, which is does from time to time. But still can't be trusted beyond Wednesday you feel.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    22 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

    I'd like to make a short notice. 

    PJB's post in UKWW

    "After a dry and settled start to the week, Models are trending towards change in the synoptic type through the 2nd half of next week. Models are in good agreement that a building low to mid level ridge will develop over the North Sea and into the near continent early next week. At the same time a fairly sharp longwave trough is likely to extend down into the Atlantic and move east towards the British Isles. Models have trended towards a slower advance or progression of this longwave trough into the UK and as it approaches Western Europe.    

     

    This delay in the progressive Atlantic pattern will allow a bubble of heat to develop over Iberia and advect NNE towards the British Isles and NW Europe. A Spanish Plume event across the East, SE and S of England and the Channel Islands seems likely through the middle of the upcoming week 19-21st June.    

     

    A large plume of High Theta-W Air is advected north across Iberia, into Biscay and France and then towards the East & SE of England during Weds.  

     

    There remains considerable differences in the position and strength of the longwave trough to the west of the UK by midweek and more importantly there are even greater differences between the models with respect to a shortwave trough moving NE embedded in the ascending side of the longwave which will be responsible for producing enough destabilisation to the underlying plume to allow for Thunderstorms to develop during the evening, through differential thermal advection and destabilisation of the EML covering SE England and the ability of Home Grown Evening Thunderstorms to develop as a likely loaded gun scenario develops over parts of SE England. 

     

    The ECMWF is far less enthusiastic with respect to this shortwave moving NE and has an even slower progression of the longwave which eventually leads to a trough disruption over the UK & NW Europe with the continental plume and higher theta -w air remaining near or even advecting back into the UK and the SE during the end of the week. 

     

    The DWD ICON model also has the shortwave moving NE but with slightly more progression it has the Thunderstorms mainly over the East & SE of England. 

     

    The 00Z GFS was quite bullish about a significant shortwave trough moving NE. The model having Significant CAPE and given the Shear increasing above we can expect given this model outcome organisation of thunderstorms to occur. The ECMWF has a different shape of the trough. 

    convective_overview_20210612_00_114.thumb.jpg.296810702f9a44a938bf368029652d95.jpg.3602fd68c64d2ae924deb4dd9a39b4e5.jpgsupercell_composite_20210612_00_114.thumb.jpg.37c864e3e3b0ed752ba97b5fc3b0297c.jpg.a71b61d4e46a429949f01b6876268a58.jpg

    1687570532_rel_vorticity_500_20210612_00_114.thumb.jpg.6c7f32698e6734f83081d0256f76e918(1).jpg.c50373b15f060bc8eba3733593b18c10.jpgoverview_20210612_00_117.thumb.jpg.03ea23807dc00424785a35938fc843a6.jpg.4c1085421f104329ff881c41756b69b5.jpg

    1928802543_overview_20210612_00_114.thumb.jpg.56eae1d98cfe2fe3eda50eed945e9c96(1).jpg.2430db26651e752c2d3981fa658da524.jpg

    12Z Models seen so far seem to support the growing trend towards a rather complex pattern evolution developing during the Midweek period as the Mid to lower level high migrates east and allows a longwave trough to approach the West of the UK 

     

    Ingredients are there for a fairly classic Spanish Plume event to move north. The models however have various amounts of Moisture moving north and a rather different run to run set of model outcomes is probably to be expected until we reach Tuesday.  

     

    Models suggest a 16-19C Theta-W 850mb WBPT plume will develop over the Spanish Plateau on Tuesday and advect steadily north during the night and into Wednesday. This Elevated Moist Layer will then lie over the SE'ern Half of England during Weds and into Weds Night.  

     

    At the same time a 500mb longwave trough is set to approach Europe from the West, and at the same time a shortwave trough is likely to move NE on the foreward or ascending side of the trough, this trough aloft will increase the 500mb and 300mb vorticity or spin in the atmosphere ahead of it and increase velocity of the air upward in the ascending part of the trough.  

     

    At the same time winds will increase aloft from 850mb upwards towards 300mb increasing the Deep Layer Sheer esp over parts of CS England, Midlands and into Northern England. This DLS will support any thunderstorms getting organised into possible multi cells or indeed into an MCS

     

    During Wednesday very high low level heat transported north across Iberia will move into Western France with daytime maxes likely to support 36-38C and a well capped atmosphere over France under strong High Pressure and strong 850mb warm nose. However a certain amount of heat, with high 850mb Temps and 16-18C Theta-W will advect north across Biscay and at the surface a heat or surface low trough will develop across Western and then Northern France. This Thundery area of Low pressure at the surface will drift north across the Channel towards CS England . As the shortwave moves north then destabilisation of the 850mb Theta-W Plume is likely to lead to elevated EML Thunderstorms developing from around 850mb/900mb across the Channel, then moving north and further developing from the surface during Weds Night and into Thurs. Detail will be crucial nearer the time. 

     

    The main question marks which exist so far are 

     

    How far east will the longwave trough get before it begins to disrupt and its progress east blocked by the surge in GPH over Central Europe.  

    How Active will the shortwave plume be as it moves NE towards the South of the UK on Weds afternoon and evening 

    What will the thermodynamic property of the plume resemble in terms of Theta-W during Weds. Higher more widespread Theta-W values nearer to 19/20C supports more energy in the atmosphere and therefore activity 

    Upper level kinematics (wind speed, wind shear etc) moving NE Across England and Wales, and how these kinematics interact and overlay the plume moving NE. Models are notoriously poor at these kind of Spanish Plume events which are very complex and therefore expect run to run oscillations over the next couple of days 

    However models do seem to be trending towards a more significant interaction and a trough which may become slow moving lying NE to SW across the SE'ern half of England during the end of the week with the risk of Thunderstorms and attendant risks of Flash Floods, Lightning Strikes possibly hail and strong gusts too.   

     

    An interesting week ahead. 

     

    Fig 1/2/3 - ICON, GFS and ARPEGE for 18Z on Weds, clearly no agreement yet on the detail, but there is now broad agreement on the main aspects of the synoptic scale development noted above. 

     

     Paul"

    overview_20210612_12_102.thumb.jpg.a493cf4fa98e4f99f67382314c9573a0.jpg.b53cad2f3adafb52b86be16c915baff8.jpg1293744124_overview_20210612_12_108(1).thumb.jpg.30cb9784f97faac58a18722257e5e1d1.jpg.380e86c2a6fb3389d9b7caffe60ba659.jpg799812725_overview_20210612_12_108.thumb.jpg.628d49ce5fbf4326fd8a74989d967fdf(1).jpg.2ecf62426665091e9ffee9fc2f00fb53.jpg

     

    Certainly very interesting picked out a few phrases :

    "Loaded gun scenario" 

    Reminds me of a few lines from my favourite musical. 

    Something along the lines of

    "I'll load the gun, someone's got to fire the shot"

    Which will now remind me of, the ingredients are there but it's too far out and we don't know whether everything will aline.

    Along with the lines :

    "What will the thermodynamic property of the plume resemble in terms of Theta-W during Weds." 

    I'm sorry I only speak English, what this is in English, oh, I only speak Spanish then. If I need to keep my feet on the ground just remind me of the level on which I don't understand this sentence. 

    GEM

    2020620955_gemeuw-2-126(1).thumb.png.2ab39543b197bf487862cb84d7286cca.pnggemeuw-11-126.thumb.png.dd6fcdb30cba7d11391b09cfc6020d37.png

    1764677901_gemeuw-2-108(2).thumb.png.02317a7af007ace467e7abe02c2a3718.png1965536413_gemeuw-2-114(2).thumb.png.8c5f3a1aed280745ec999072bcd8ae7c.png

     

    Icon

    iconeu-1-93-0.thumb.png.ec749d4a235ebef643337ddf79910692.png

    192009747_iconeu-1-96-0(1).thumb.png.950c973b0b9a14a6af7eb98980c933bf.png

    iconeu-28-96-0.thumb.png.83d1cfd793e1f7f6aab2980e6abcae7b.png

    1854567587_iconeu-1-99-0(1).thumb.png.dbea0581f914d8bbda9ad3976916f3a3.png

    iconeu-28-99-0.thumb.png.463bd90674820c8b06b554ae7f48964a.png

    iconeu-1-102-0.thumb.png.435ff7ab28137ad2b69538e3e55eea54.pngiconeu-1-105-0.thumb.png.a08d518f9ae66f73386f8aba9597efab.png557303604_iconeu-1-108-0(1).thumb.png.f0ecc054f0835dea5bd6e20b2fa9e25b.png

    Icon has been one of the most Conservative when it comes to CAPE but I would still quite like this run. 

    That's all for now, hope you all have a good evening,sorry for the low effort post. 

    arpegeeur-11-102 (1).png

    "PJB's latest update

    It is highly likely that there will be some additional convergence / confluence at (for example) 925mb/850mb as the upper flow veers with height, and there is some troughing in the lower atmosphere. This increases the ascent or vertical velocity of the air which then is able to reach the EML which is why you can then see no surface based cumulus but can trigger ACcast which can then grow into CB's which grow from this EML layer. This is more likely to occur towards the Diurnal Maxima (or during the early night) 

     

    Surface based convection triggered over N France can drift north in this EML as well.  

     

    The shortwave aloft will inject further ascent or increased rate of air rising as well as vorticity (spin) of the air to make it highly buoyant in this ascending side of the trough 

     

    Model diagnostics also indicate the likelihood of significant earth positive vorticity (Spin/Vorticity caused by the flow of the air vs the earth) running NE in the ascending side of the trough which is likely to be very difficult to pin down until nearer to the time. This will combine with the shortwave trough and further increase the amount of Positive Vorticity in the area of CS UK and NW France Weds Evening .

    PAul"

    CH significant weather :

    Screenshot_20210613_202037.thumb.jpg.debc3950220e6221af39b1f1190953f9.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202058.thumb.jpg.1e9bd2f00d809f108526bee1feae7c51.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202115.thumb.jpg.c11c3cbac884cedb5a9467e1d61c3a6c.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202131.thumb.jpg.f730ac8a4d7489d138a1ffa9710dfe9c.jpg

    Screenshot_20210613_202147.thumb.jpg.717b14bf4e986539fda9d95386f47b2d.jpg

    ECM significant weather :

    Screenshot_20210613_202225.thumb.jpg.3e4b2e0d1bd507b76285011d19a48f33.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202238.thumb.jpg.a7920a1ed93e25f92276eee7ff9d1cfc.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202249.thumb.jpg.8a6c5a80d4120b4eea8ba033ffc2ab12.jpgScreenshot_20210613_202304.thumb.jpg.0722c1ef4c9938b52ac2e8d3b9fc43d0.jpg

    Screenshot_20210613_202331.thumb.jpg.fb664782c3cf26b1228d899f805f44ca.jpg

    Screenshot_20210613_202342.thumb.jpg.e9bb55bd7b4d83e2f62a5f17a7dda94c.jpg

    Screenshot_20210613_202355.thumb.jpg.fbcaac53e85510b7bdc6cf62284cc4fd.jpg

    Short post again, sorry. 

    Screenshot_20210613_202249.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I’ve been selective with the GEFS 12z members but the longer term mean doesn’t look bad, there’s scope for a return to summery conditions during late June following a more average period?. In the meantime, the SE in particular looks generally very warm or even hot  and becoming increasingly humid again following a fresher blip on Tuesday, the heat and humidity building again from midweek with some big storms spreading up from the near continent, even some home grown storms breaking out too...the Very warm conditions could linger into next weekend across the SE?....anyway, there’s a lot going on but the main focus is for the s / se.. ☀️ 🥵 ⛈ 

    F671E004-29E3-4B1D-B06D-DD8B44E688F0.thumb.png.73e9b0487edac2ef4ab8f77635e24f19.png9A840395-1719-47E8-8F32-403938AC63EE.thumb.png.2ec1f192645ab3cb999255a38cbf3056.png7A61F15D-F952-40B6-B0CC-080889AE8EFA.thumb.png.0af2f9a301eebad4f4f1aad9d23fd170.pngA190B3ED-BC75-46D9-B636-907CB7AA1606.thumb.png.9ad6b334ed740cb6bd1f39a0cdc958d7.pngE91866C7-D5F1-4C43-81E5-C3049FB37DFF.thumb.png.f2bc008ecf441029832b5e8afda9d8a4.png1C1B0185-AB6E-407C-A929-351A5A3A360D.thumb.png.5d197c402f41e0dde4f629a58bad80d7.png6E644A03-6889-40A7-839A-4752A7229D88.thumb.png.30cbb363f3c8a1480d8445c459408ed0.png4B8ACBB3-DE30-4E67-A549-C15EF35DAD24.thumb.png.ee380ec4ab7a5ab384fa317c94bd8fda.png7EDF2CFE-90E0-41B1-B917-1DEB80898942.thumb.png.e728e5c8470de5e954e7750fe2eb248f.png0AAE08E1-821B-499E-8F10-FF9D9DA440CD.thumb.png.3c4eec5999050699dd7fae05ae74ee5d.pngE44C467C-77DD-405B-A332-6E491F1691C0.thumb.jpeg.0357ac65667e314a81a22240b674bcdc.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This evening's GEFS ensembles do look somewhat 'mixed': t850Suffolk.png  t2mSuffolk.png  🤔

    My attention will now focus more on Wednesday night-Thursday's potential pyrotechnics! ⚡😁

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    5 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

    TBH the last four runs of the GFS all have unsettled weather at some point, I think a breakdown of cooler and unsettled weather in the second half of June is inevitable, it's just a question of when and how unsettled it will be.

    IMG_1314.PNG

    IMG_1315.PNG

    Oh i have no doubt theres a pattern change after the breakdown to a spell of unsettled, its just the cold unsettled with low pressure to our East i believe is wrong. the anomalies consistently predict the uk under a trough but with high pressure solidly to both our east and far west.

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