Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[minus10]

While the gfs0z wants to keep us in a cool ne,

The ecm 0z is at least slightly less cool by 240. The now very welcome friend the azores hp still some way away...come on mate! You can do it...

[Downburst]

Next weeks mean sea pressure anomaly still primed to have a deeply chilling effect on any apple and other fruit blossoms I'm afraid. Although the following week does reduce the anomalies and hopefully we get back nearer to normal, but certainly not warmer than average

[Guest]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

While the gfs0z wants to keep us in a cool ne,

The ecm 0z is at least slightly less cool by 240. The now very welcome friend the azores hp still some way away...come on mate! You can do it...

The GFS Ops run was mostly in the coolest few post about a week, many of ensembles would give plenty of fine, dry conditions and temps up into the high teens at least.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

No snow in this cold spell down south, might as well get some sun and warmth now.

This 00Z GFS probably most sunless run ever for my area, expected for April though, Easterlies are common

Edited April 9, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[lassie23]

40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This 00Z GFS probably most sunless run ever for my area, expected for April though, Easterlies are common

Easterlies in April, sounds like a gloom fest

[Scorcher]

This may not be the greatest chart in the world if you want it to be warm, but it's a very good chart compared to what we've seen over the last 5 days!

I think most of the people who want the cold to disappear would have bitten your hand off if offered a chart like this a couple of days back when things were looking very bleak.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This may not be the greatest chart in the world if you want it to be warm, but it's a very good chart compared to what we've seen over the last 5 days!

I think most of the people who want the cold to disappear would have bitten your hand off if offered a chart like this a couple of days back when things were looking very bleak.

For Manchester maybe, protected by Pennines, but here that looks grey with sea mist, winds look E'ly

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

For Manchester maybe, protected by Pennines, but here that looks grey with sea mist, winds look E'ly

Personally I would take easterly clag over what we've had over the past few days. At least cloud cover will mean no damaging frosts. But yes maybe my post was a bit IMBY as easterlies are often decent around these parts in spring. May 2018 was a very easterly month and was extremely sunny here. Hopefully this sets a trend for the rest of the spring.

[johnholmes]

The anomalies do seem to be leaning away from any repeat, after this weekend, of any repeat reload of a cold northerly, more a rather slack flow off the Atlantic.

[PiscesStar]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The anomalies do seem to be leaning away from any repeat, after this weekend, of any repeat reload of a cold northerly, more a rather slack flow off the Atlantic.

Would that result. In haar or grey cloud cover please John? 

[Guest]

The GFS 06Z Ops run is again very much in the 'glass half full' grouping of the ensembles. Overall a more encouraging mean heading into the final tercile of April....

 

 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

Would that result. In haar or grey cloud cover please John? 

The westerly? If that is what you meant then no

If you are asking about before the change to westerly. Not sure as the flow looks to be from a N'ly point rather than an easterly one, other than the temporary effect from the low likely to give some rain in the SE corner of England?

[Frosty.]

I’m surprised it’s so quiet in here?...the weather gods will soon be smiling down on the u k according to the GEFS 12z mean as temperatures gradually recover to seasonal values and high pressure builds in over the British isles before migrating to Scandinavia?..perhaps then followed by an Azores / Scandi high / ridge link-up or perhaps low pressure moving towards the southwest with warmer southeasterly winds being the result?..whatever happens I think it’s Bon voyage to the Arctic shots, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed them but if that’s the end of that, I hope we see a good warm up!..cheers..  

 

 

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I’m surprised it’s so quiet in here?...the weather gods will soon be smiling down on the u k according to the GEFS 12z mean as temperatures gradually recover to seasonal values and high pressure builds in over the British isles before migrating to Scandinavia?..perhaps then followed by an Azores / Scandi high / ridge link-up or perhaps low pressure moving towards the southwest with warmer southeasterly winds being the result?..whatever happens I think it’s Bon voyage to the Arctic shots, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed them but if that’s the end of that, I hope we see a good warm up!..cheers..  

 

 

Yes Karl, we were speculating about this last night, the move of the heights to Scandi from Greenland allows the Azores to link up, and the signal is still there today, GFS 12z T192:

Looks promising, a warm up on the way!  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 charts to compare with my post above:

Paints same kind of picture, and if this is what we’re left with after the cold snap, it bodes well for building for summer in my view.  GFS 12z jet stream plot T192 also:

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, coming off the Atlantic here, and there is an opportunity for the jet to set a northerly track here, it needs to be taken! 

It looks like meteociel have reverted to their previous jet stream plots, the ones including the lower speed winds in purple were really misleading.

Edited April 9, 2021 by Mike Poole

[stodge]

Evening all

12Z JMA remains rock solid on an E'ly supported by strong heights over Scandinavia - other models a shade less convinced. It certainly looks as though we will have a spell of E'ly winds but that eventually breaks down to be replaced with, you guessed it, heights over Greenland and to the north west.

April and May are the most favoured months for northern blocking with the Atlantic quiet and this to-and-fro pattern between heights to the north west and the north east may keep us all guessing. 

[damianslaw]

We seem to be in an abnormal state at present, with no fuel in the jetstream leaving us exposed to more northerly, easterly incursions, or generally slack airflows with pressure not knowing where it wants to set up shop. I wouldn't be too sure about how things may pan out, expect lots of varying output from the models in the days ahead, small short term developments likely to spring up in short timeframes making for a forecasters headache.

Scanning through the outputs, I'm expecting higher pressure to have a upper hand but perhaps not strong enough to prevent weak frontal systems getting in on the act, an interplay beyween high pressure and shallow trough action. All quite normal for this time of year, the most tricky time for weather forecasting.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

We seem to be in an abnormal state at present, with no fuel in the jetstream leaving us exposed to more northerly, easterly incursions, or generally slack airflows with pressure not knowing where it wants to set up shop. I wouldn't be too sure about how things may pan out, expect lots of varying output from the models in the days ahead, small short term developments likely to spring up in short timeframes making for a forecasters headache.

Scanning through the outputs, I'm expecting higher pressure to have a upper hand but perhaps not strong enough to prevent weak frontal systems getting in on the act, an interplay beyween high pressure and shallow trough action. All quite normal for this time of year, the most tricky time for weather forecasting.

Yes in the medium term it could go anywhere from here, really.  There’s nothing really driving it.  But whatever does happen could have implications for summer by driving SSTs one way or another.  it’s difficult to predict at the moment but it is also important down the line.  Interesting. 

[Uncertainty]

Not sure why but the ECM just isn’t convinced on next week’s potential settled spell, GEM, UKMO and GFS have been zeroing in in it for a few days now, the former coming on board in the last two runs... here’s 144:

 

Really similar with sthern scandi  heights ridging over the U.K. nicely...

  
The GEFS have been quite consistent on this signal

The ECM, very out of sorts in the mid range over the last 6 or so months, pushes a trough through and thus looks really out of kilter with the rest of the guidance

This trough, now trapped between heights E and W, hangs around like a sore thumb and would make for an unsettled and showery picture for the mid part of April.

This discordance is manifest in the 6-10 heights forecast from NOAA,

an unconvincing signal for higher heights to the East but you could argue we’re in more of a col there. Though the anomalies are skewed towards higher heights around the U.K. in April, so often an Easterly dominated month.

You can’t ever discount the ECM and until it’s fully onboard I wouldn’t be shouting sunny and settled from the rooftops but, given the strong signals elsewhere, I’d punt that it’ll cave by this time tomorrow.

Either way, it looks milder than of late. Can’t see too many folk complaining about that! 

 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Not sure why but the ECM just isn’t convinced on next week’s potential settled spell, GEM, UKMO and GFS have been zeroing in in it for a few days now, the former coming on board in the last two runs... here’s 144:

 

Really similar with sthern scandi  heights ridging over the U.K. nicely...

  
The GEFS have been quite consistent on this signal

The ECM, very out of sorts in the mid range over the last 6 or so months, pushes a trough through and thus looks really out of kilter with the rest of the guidance

This trough, now trapped between heights E and W, hangs around like a sore thumb and would make for an unsettled and showery picture for the mid part of April.

This discordance is manifest in the 6-10 heights forecast from NOAA,

an unconvincing signal for higher heights to the East but you could argue we’re in more of a col there. Though the anomalies are skewed towards higher heights around the U.K. in April, so often an Easterly dominated month.

You can’t ever discount the ECM and until it’s fully onboard I wouldn’t be shouting sunny and settled from the rooftops but, given the strong signals elsewhere, I’d punt that it’ll cave by this time tomorrow.

Either way, it looks milder than of late. Can’t see too many folk complaining about that! 

 

Yes there is a possibility of a col situation developing, so not surprised to ECM going down the shallow trough route. All depend on how low heights behave to our NW come Monday, if they anchor down into Scotland then we could see a showery outcome much of next week with the trough stuck between heights to the NE, NW and SW. If it stays further to the NW, then we should see hgh pressure nose in from the SW more robustly and then its a case of seeing where heights end up.. either an easterly flow, or a more anticyclonic flow.. 

[Iceman2606]

Looking like we'll finally see a recovery as we head into mid April with temperatures back into double figures widely.

 

Still looking be on the showery side tho but there should be plenty of dry weather too!

[Uncertainty]

Overall the EPS are more settled than the Det and parallel op. They get plenty settled later on in the run too, suggesting the heights likely to win out later in the period.

FYI: A beautiful synoptic for those in the NW. Less so for the East coast dwellers, looks like a haar factory.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all

Get those beach towels out ladies and gents! Heading for those dizzy heights of 14C in the SE by next Wednesday and 11/12C up here! 

 

Before all that excitement...potential wintry weather tomorrow and Sunday.

Tomorrow 15:00

 

Sunday 15:00

 

Looking further ahead again - total accumulated precipitation from the latest ECM...quite a wet run at times.

 

ECM 240: Not filling me with hope from a warm/settled point of view going forward - if it turns out to be correct of course!

 

Nothing too exciting at the moment for the warm/heat loving side of me on current output - totally understand though that there is a chance of mid teens in the South at times later next week! Not to be sniffed at - still only approaching mid April.

It is all just a bit bland currently after the excitement of the heat down South at the end of March and the very impressive Arctic blast at the start of this week - especially in the North. 

ECM seasonal updated on the 01/04...here are the temperature/rainfall anomalies for each Summer month!

June:

 

July:

 

August:

Overall for the UK...nothing nasty lurking there with regards to wetter than average - slightly above average temperatures for the South at times. 

I shall see you all again when something exciting pops up in the outlook! (proper warmth/heat/record breaking temperatures, thunderstorms)

All the best to you all!

Cheers @Mr Frost for the ECM seasonals, similar to what we’re expecting from the long rangers last month.  As you say nothing nasty lurking, and plenty of potential for warm summer weather, maybe some storms in July!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What the Hell is going on! I turn my back for a few hours to find everyone is joining the Happy Campers Summer camp!

Come on coldies let's make some records fall,by recording Snow in April...May and finally June!! There's still.some cold air around....I just won't give in....its my life dream to see falling Snow in May know matter how brief! Join me coldies I'm still up for it...

Have a great Weekend and I hope you pick the Aintree winner...ohh and God Bless you Prince Phillip..

[Jordan S]

Here's a satellite view from eumetsat of the cold front marked by the long stretch of cloud moving slowly south across England and Wales.. you can see areas of cloud to the southwest moving east northeast towards and across France in association with tomorrow's developing low pressure system.. 

Rain probably now moving into the southeast during the day tomorrow, so some of it persistent but mostly remaining south and southeast of London with the heaviest of this over northern France, possibly a mix of rain and snow over high ground at times. Just to the northwest of this likely largely cloudy with the chance of local patchy light rain possibly sleet.

Alternatively though unlikely If the rain does stay away to the southeast then turning drier during tomorrow afternoon in the far southeast after an overcast and in some places possibly drizzly start.

Here's the high resolution models for tomorrow..

Arome..

 

Arpege..

 

A slow moving line of showers may also develop tomorrow too and if this happens then probably placed northeast to southwest through the north and west Midlands, east Wales possibly into central parts of England too bringing showery precipitation some of it heavy with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly snow falling.

Sunday rain, sleet and snow showers probably widespread over England and Wales.. Less for Scotland and northern Ireland..

 

Outlook for the first half of next week largely unchanged, so temperatures probably back towards average for central and southern areas on tuesday and wednesday.. winds probably turn southeasterly/ southerly on thursday, frosts may continue but it may become slightly warmer than average by thursday-saturday also it looks right now that mostly dry weather will continue for many southern and eastern parts of England..

Gfs 2m temperatures..

Thursday..

Friday..

As an example here's the Ecmwf.. a view of the area of high pressure moving east into and through southern,central parts of England and Wales through next week shown in place to the east of us towards the end of the next week..

Midday ecmwf update..

Edited April 9, 2021 by jordan smith