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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Really weird looking at ECM ensembles in more detail; though most runs averaging upper air between 10C and 15C from next Wednesday onwards, most runs keep maximums for places like London in the low-mid 20Cs. Suggests little appetite to drift the high eastwards and to allow a continental feed. However, if you were to bet on a UK high correcting west or east, you'd usually bet on it correcting east, so I'm holding off judgements on likely temperatures for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Do we need this to get a little more active than it currently is to start pushing the sunny warmth our way......?
image.thumb.png.c57593400e4baec496f37da0068318c7.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Most of the GFS 6Z ensembles at least have High pressure in control to some point out towards day 8 and beyond...so its currently looking much better...yes even the English Riviera could get some action

Latest update from Exeter looks good with perhaps it becoming more changeable towards mid August! But very low confidence...well blow me down,who would have thought it..its only 4 weeks away

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Great post as always Matt..who would have thought it might become changeable 4 weeks henceforth?...wow, wot a shock!  ...anyhoo, just before the 12z gets into full swing, here’s a few mean charts from the GEFS 6z!...not bad huh? ☀️..don’t worry guys, Flash Gordon has us covered..no problemo ! ..bit of blue sky thinking there (outside the box)..  

D3B78310-D345-4F58-B1E4-3786D24AB6D8.thumb.png.581f192ba7cdeef6ae4dfac8f7e76aac.pngC496C9D5-6081-43A1-8060-4B83D2B76E41.thumb.png.c8734fcfb926230a357d5b19ee898fb9.pngEC6C3C71-1D2D-4ECE-B1D1-4CB5177DE60B.thumb.png.918f4d854123e641c3d15b07599ba311.pngC560E034-B288-4F69-9166-1996CFF18064.thumb.png.1d3beca857de834bcb916505dc9ca3aa.pngCCC29E1B-5B89-41AD-81EA-B0801AA66135.thumb.jpeg.75acefb23aeb524fb5c19d4b90846a59.jpeg 20CA98F7-AE7A-4137-BDB8-41F6ED9A5A24.thumb.png.5cbdbdad2c0f897f32c69c0f3888e4be.png

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

That doesn’t surprise me!  

Just to say also I do think there will be some warmer and nicer stuff towards the end of the week, its probably more likely to be good the further west you go. I do worry the SE may again get stuck in cooler cloudier muck though and weve had bucket loads of that already. I notice mwb earlier on this page saying london maxes are quite suppressed given 850hoa profile and that screams cool North Sea undercut which is bad news for the east/SE and maybe even central areas.

My real question though is it a 3-4 day flash in the pan or the start of something we can build upon. For now I think given presistance of the pattern for the last 3-4 weeks id still favour the former but I hope its the latter for sure!

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just to say also I do think there will be some warmer and nicer stuff towards the end of the week, its probably more likely to be good the further west you go. I do worry the SE may again get stuck in cooler cloudier muck though and weve had bucket loads of that already. I notice mwb earlier on this page saying london maxes are quite suppressed given 850hoa profile and that screams cool North Sea undercut which is bad news for the east/SE and maybe even central areas.

My real question though is it a 3-4 day flash in the pan or the start of something we can build upon. For now I think given presistance of the pattern for the last 3-4 weeks id still favour the former but I hope its the latter for sure!

 

I’m glad we agree on something ..my point was (is) that the mean charts have never looked better this month and I think a repeat of what we had for a while in June..or perhaps something even hotter ...for sure, there is scope for that...and a few of us have been banging on about mid July being the turning point to something much more summery since around the last third of June...before the bbc or meto mentioned it...go figure!  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.gif.05c18179ebe67413ff0ef512fd700935.gif

UKMO 144…yes please ☀️  

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

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UKMO 144…yes please ☀️  

Do I detect an increasing ebb of confidence in your posts mate... fab chart by the way..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Do we need this to get a little more active than it currently is to start pushing the sunny warmth our way......?
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No chance of any hurricanes in the near future as the MDR is in a big suppressed phase at the moment. August could be very lively though!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Do I detect an increasing ebb of confidence in your posts mate... fab chart by the way..

I’m more confident when these charts start appearing at day 6/5/4! As long as it isn’t washed away in about 3 days like some Of the GFS runs recently we’re all good!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO very good, GFS has the positioning of the high much better than its previous runs by T192:

64A618FE-9FDA-46B1-AD1B-D2EC1CF99E93.thumb.png.7aa8cbc67b153d640b3bb02f38178b22.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Who could possibly complain about these? h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Who could possibly complain about these? h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

We seem to be in the Eastern edge of a depression, and whilst not cold, there could be heavy showers or even frontal rain?

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Little to complain about to the 20th, pretty much a clean sweep of decent output. 
 

GEM firing up some real warmth for freedom day. Uppers like that under slack winds and clear skies you’d be expecting 31-33C 

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Edited by Alderc
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Energy doesn't get disrupted SE on the latest runs which has a massive effect of keeping the Azores high pretty close to the UK throughout instead of getting pinched through the middle.

GEM goes exceptionally warm as well and providing we can avoid that cooler undercut (look up June 2019 for a cracking example of that, most of the week spent under 20c 850hpa with max temps around 24-25c because of the undercut) could become quite an impressive spell.

I'd keep an eye on that LP to our W/NW as well, should it not disrupt SE at all it may line up to allow a very hot shot from the south over the UK (especially the south).

At least a much warmer spell over the weekend looks pretty nailed on, hopefully sunny as well but thats still uncertain especially further E you are.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Much better UKMO and GEM tonight. Really strong high pressure over the uk. ECM to join the party ?!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.0fb68b0274cf9ec3921182e8c00b244f.png

UKMO day 7 upper air temps not too shabby…

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