Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

Well, this is going to have to do for now, ECM T240:

The other models slightly less forthcoming with the high, GEM and GFS at same time:

But come on! It is not the real deal but it certainly an improvement on the dross of the last few weeks (and next week ).   Finally, before I show that there are models that are bullish re summer returning, worth remembering that we see from the ensembles that many options are on the table; and so is this one from the JMA at T264:

 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hallelujah...

Getting very tiresome reading moaning moaning and more moaning on this thread.

EC still wanting to settle things down but its proving a real struggle to get these annoying lows to lift out.

It looks nice - but it’s stuck at day 10 again and hasn’t got any closer the last couple of days. Now looking pretty mixed to unsettled out until Wednesday, before Thursday and Friday turn drier.

Temperatures fairly uninspiring for what is now the peak of summer, high teens scraping low 20s at times. We need to squeeze something decent here as august is starting to look decidedly dodgy. Nina setting back in and a massive standing wave possibly setting up and not moving all month, which usually means crappy weather for the UK.

[Methuselah]

Well, as I sit here in my shorts & tank top, I wonder why everyone keeps saying it's so cold . . . And, according to the latest GEFS ensembles, the outlook is hardly 'cold' either:

    

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It looks nice - but it’s stuck at day 10 again and hasn’t got any closer the last couple of days. Now looking pretty mixed to unsettled out until Wednesday, before Thursday and Friday turn drier.

Temperatures fairly uninspiring for what is now the peak of summer, high teens scraping low 20s at times. We need to squeeze something decent here as august is starting to look decidedly dodgy. Nina setting back in and a massive standing wave possibly setting up and not moving all month, which usually means crappy weather for the UK.

August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer.

We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.

 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer.

We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.

 

I think this summer has been fairly well modelled on the whole. I didn’t see anyone predicting a scorcher. I fancied an average to slightly better than normal summer leading in, and that’s very much up in the air. If the second half of July is a dud then it’ll end up on the scrap heap. CET wise June was one of the better ones, which depending on where you live you may or may not agree with!

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer.

We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.

 

I’m still confident that July will be hot in the latter half, the background signals seem to push for that, although in the short term, I admit that is happening slower than I would like.  Then you have to factor in the MO CP forecasts which are bullish for a hot and dry rest of summer, difficult to fathom from the current outputs but it does just rest on that shift from the Azores through to Scandi, still think around 15th July.  

[Frosty.]

To be sure, the ECM 12z operational longer term was heading in the right direction towards an anticyclonic and much warmer spell...I would really have liked to see days 11, 12, 13...14...etc!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Guys if I wake up one morning and become an old woman,I will start to moan...until then forget it..

I'm beginning to sound like a stuck record with my talk of an improving mean...well I'm still waiting and it still seems as far away as ever!! But guess what...definitely signs of an improvement around mid month...mid month which year I hear you think! Trust me if a decent spell doesn't come off between now and September I will be the first to write a letter to Exeter pleading with them to scrap there 30 dayer!

Poor outlook but signs of a shift by day 8 or perhaps 80....who knows I'm losing interest.

Up the lads and do the Robot when they score.

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z ensembles, all looks good on the mean:

Couple of things on the spread:

1 - this area of uncertainty is still too close for comfort in my view.

2 - the cut off low seen in the operational runs, continues to figure in the ensembles too of course, and is preventing us for making a longer term forecast locally for summer weather still at the moment.  

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m still confident that July will be hot in the latter half, the background signals seem to push for that, although in the short term, I admit that is happening slower than I would like.  Then you have to factor in the MO CP forecasts which are bullish for a hot and dry rest of summer, difficult to fathom from the current outputs but it does just rest on that shift from the Azores through to Scandi, still think around 15th July.  

Don’t take this as a dig because it certainly isn’t! You were fairly confident that the first part of July would be fine a couple of weeks ago. I hope you’re right this time mate!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

August will be a hot month then - I'm starting to doubt the validity of any long term signals this summer.

We keep getting dangled with promising anomaly charts in the 10-14 day range, but that's where they have stayed for the past three weeks.

As long as one of the big three shows unsettled, that is what it will be it seems.

 

But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing? I'm quite baffled to be honest.

One could argue that being very close to ENSO neutral is a harbinger of increased Azores HP predominance (which is what we have seen to some extent) but as I said back in the spring, this would most likely be tempered by the fact we're in a low solar summer (which has had the effect of pulling the HP too far west/north at times and allowing troughing in).

Nothing has been suggestive of anything other than a mixed summer. That's exactly what we're seeing. 

Edited July 6, 2021 by CreweCold

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing?

Nothing has been suggestive of anything other than a mixed summer. That's exactly what we're seeing. 

True - but little different to the last two summers. At least they produced some hot spells, and I’m hoping this one does the same (although I’m sure you won’t! )

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don’t take this as a dig because it certainly isn’t! You were fairly confident that the first part of July would be fine a couple of weeks ago. I hope you’re right this time mate!

Yes, this sort of thing happens all the time in trying to predict such a moveable feast as the UK weather!  I mean in the longer term, the models are very good at the next 4 days now!  But longer term, which is my main interest here, don’t dis the long term models, we are coming up to St Swithins day, and while I’ve no truck with that at all, the models are suggesting a change around mid-month.  It seems odd to be predicting a hot August, given how dismal this month has been in the last 17 years, but I’m hopeful the current rather disappointing model runs will get better as we approach mid month.  

[ANYWEATHER]

Coming up ,a Traditional British summer ...some mixed spells but some very nice spells too. We are so lucky to live in this beautiful country,  not posted any charts because if you're a true summer lover and want heat and sunshine it's always in day 10...

[Frosty.]

To be sure, I’m happy with the long term ECM 12z ensemble mean / operational tonight!...to be sure..as I’ve been banging on about for ages now, mid July or thereabouts could see a return to very summery conditions?!  

[Frosty.]

To be sure, I’m happy with the long term ECM 12z ensemble mean / operational tonight!...to be sure..as I’ve been banging on about for ages now, mid July could see a return to very summery conditions?!  

 

wow ...so good I thought I’d post it twice!... to be sure! 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing? I'm quite baffled to be honest.

One could argue that being very close to ENSO neutral is a harbinger of increased Azores HP predominance (which is what we have seen to some extent) but as I said back in the spring, this would most likely be tempered by the fact we're in a low solar summer (which has had the effect of pulling the HP too far west/north at times and allowing troughing in).

Nothing has been suggestive of anything other than a mixed summer. That's exactly what we're seeing. 

I don't think anyone was taking about a 2018 repeat,but in a typical Summer these days you would expect Hot spells to occur as normal such is the climate change these days. If you check the Met updates you will find they are constantly mentioning very warm and Hot spells probable..so are you assuming they are reading the signals wrong! If we can achieve 20c in February then we should be easily breaching 30C at times during the Summer! And regarding background signals they don't always nail a pattern...far from it...I can think of a few Winters when very positive signals for cold delivered nothing! 

Backloaded is my prediction,and that's what I've been saying for some time..and yes that means a decent August...

[JayAlmeida]

57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I don't think anyone was taking about a 2018 repeat,but in a typical Summer these days you would expect Hot spells to occur as normal such is the climate change these days. If you check the Met updates you will find they are constantly mentioning very warm and Hot spells probable..so are you assuming they are reading the signals wrong! If we can achieve 20c in February then we should be easily breaching 30C at times during the Summer! And regarding background signals they don't always nail a pattern...far from it...I can think of a few Winters when very positive signals for cold delivered nothing! 

Backloaded is my prediction,and that's what I've been saying for some time..and yes that means a decent August...

Backended would mean a pretty good summer here in NW england overall as June was probably the best since 2018.

[Mike Poole]

I hate to go all wobbly on you, but the GFS 18z is actually pretty good.   At least at T192:

\

So, in amongst all this uncertainty, some op runs still deliver the summer we want, you wouldn’t believe it would you?  Maybe you should…

Edit T240:

Well maybe some work still to do!  But not much!

Edited July 6, 2021 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

We simply can’t escape the meandering upper troughs ……once the modelling comes down within day 8 they get picked up rather better on the ops ..

I believe that post mid month there seems to be a trend towards these becoming less intrusive (weaker) and less regular. Here’s hoping ………. 

[mb018538]

Morning folks,

A lot of whether we get any improvement next week is now going to hinge on Hurricane Elsa. You can see by the latest graphics and forecasts that it is due to take the classic east coast clipper route as it weakens - but it's then going to caught up in the jet stream and fired across the Atlantic in a form. As we all know, models don't handle tropical systems particularly well, so more uncertainty than usual as regards to next week.



You can see the remnants starting to appear by Saturday lunchtime on the eastern seaboard here:



UKMO then whisks these out of the way up to Iceland by Tuesday:



GFS and GEM also have this system but less defined, but thankfully both also send it out of the way and look pretty good by Thursday next week:



Fingers crossed folks.

 

[northwestsnow]

32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We simply can’t escape the meandering upper troughs ……once the modelling comes down within day 8 they get picked up rather better on the ops ..

I believe that post mid month there seems to be a trend towards these becoming less intrusive (weaker) and less regular. Here’s hoping ………. 

Yes, the jet has an unfortunate look to it at present , hopefully as you suggest , a change is imminent .

That said,last few days aside ,its been dry and sunny up here in the Pennines pretty much 80% of June.

[mushymanrob]

9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

But the background signals have never looked strongly in favour of a blazing summer...so I'm not quite sure what these background signals are that some are supposedly seeing? I'm quite baffled to be honest.

 

Thats not strictly true though is it. The extended anomalies from all sources have suggested a blocked pattern with high pressure over scandinaivia and extending across the UK. These charts have been posted on this thread many times and by "uncertainty" on Monday.

[northwestsnow]

EC 00z brings a warm Easterly at day 7

Day 8 is also warm..

Edited July 7, 2021 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

EC is a stunner.