Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Howie]

Why do these troughs keep getting caught up in the high!?!?! This is ridiculous 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Howie

[JayAlmeida]

Always a worry when the HP keeps getting pushed past the 7 day mark as the models have been doing recently. Some decent useable weather at the end of the working week to look forward to yet though. 

The GEM 00z looks a bit more favorable than the others with a more sustained attempt at building HP from next Wednesday. 

I wouldn't be surprised if this gets pushed back to the end of next week in the 12z.

Interesting that we still have to have a low to our SE in and amongst the HP. France has had a pretty bad time of it so far this summer.

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[mb018538]

00z clusters day 8-10 have one that builds the high more into the south, one that builds the high in more widely, and one that doesn't at all....though at day 11-15 it looks a lot better. May be one where the clusters shows aren't a great representation of what might happen, though the signal after mid month is pretty good. 

[jules216]

Hi Folks, long time no posts from me. A very warm weather here in Slovakia dominated since early June with another heatwave this week. If you didnt do it yet you can bin all the GFS/ECM etc. maps for long range intentions and start using P.Roundy high frequency analogs. Took a while to find and start using,but there is nothing better out there as a forecasting tool. Have a look at his MJO regression analog map vs height anomally as of today

[jules216]

Latest MJO weekly report suggests move to Maritime continent week 2, analogs for phase 4 (20.7) vs EPS 1 cluster days 10-15, what can you say

[sheikhy]

Its not looking great to be honest!!!last thing we want is delay after delay!!these little shortwaves trough keep popping up out of no where and keep cutting through uk!!i really dunno whats causing this!!could it be the atlantic ssts?!!a tripole seems to have formed as well!!give me this exact set up in winter and we be looking at dumpings of snow sliding through the uk!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Its not looking great to be honest!!!last thing we want is delay after delay!!these little shortwaves trough keep popping up out of no where and keep cutting through uk!!i really dunno whats causing this!!could it be the atlantic ssts?!!a tripole seems to have formed as well!!give me this exact set up in winter and we be looking at dumpings of snow sliding through the uk!!!

It's not great currently mate,and it looks like the settled spell advertised from the met for this Weekend appear to have been pushed back into deeper next week! It's pretty shocking here right now for early July I have to say! A few sunny spells and lots of showers around for the next few days,before more organised showers pop up for Saturday!! I'm still hopeful conditions then begin to improve around mid next week as the Azores High gets a little move on..but I don't want to keep seeing this outcome being pushed back a day or 2 every 24hrs,for obvious reasons! So hopefully we still keep with that big improvement towards mid month.

[Timmytour]

GFS seems to be sparing us on its latest run from the deluge it was showing at one stage for the final on Sunday.......

 

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Howie said:

Why do these troughs keep getting caught up in the high!?!?! This is ridiculous 

Background easterly trades in the Pacific are maintaining convection Africa-West Pacific which for us correlates to a stronger than normal Azores High that is not currently seeking to ridge significantly into Europe because the aforementioned trades don't allow enough progress to generate substantial amplification.

Long range Euro tropical convection forecast did suggest this was a danger and I would guess that the GFS (much more bullish) is submitting.

We still have a warm window from about the 15th-5th based on current modelling where tropical convection and easterly trades are of equal or lesser (for the trades) strength.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Background easterly trades in the Pacific are maintaining convection Africa-West Pacific which for us correlates to a stronger than normal Azores High that is not currently seeking to ridge significantly into Europe because the aforementioned trades don't allow enough progress to generate substantial amplification.

Long range Euro tropical convection forecast did suggest this was a danger and I would guess that the GFS (much more bullish) is submitting.

We still have a warm window from about the 15th-5th based on current modelling where tropical convection and easterly trades are of equal or lesser (for the trades) strength.

That period coincides with when I class 'high summer'. When we are most likely to experience our hottest conditions and when summer reaches its peak, before a subtle shift takes place second week August towards what I call 'late summer'.. fingers crossed our high summer returns summery weather!

[JayAlmeida]

The great British summer...

[summer blizzard]

9 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The great British summer...

Couldn't make that up. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

The great British summer...

And Bully’s special prize…..

[Frosty.]

43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

And Bully’s special prize…..

You can’t beat a bit of Bully!... ..or should that be high pressure?...anyway, the GEFS 6z has some summery interest further ahead!  

[Methuselah]

Here are the GEFS 06Z ensembles. And there's a bit of everything in there:

    

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

You can’t beat a bit of Bully!... ..or should that be high pressure?...anyway, the GEFS 6z has some summery interest further ahead!  

The special prize was usually something terrible like a weeks windsurfing course only redeemable in Jan 1987 off the east coast! 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmm, not sure what to make of UKMO 144 this evening.

The Azores high is desperately trying to ridge in but the jet looks quite active and lows are zipping in towards the UK  under the yellows over Greenland /Scandy.

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by northwestsnow

[sheikhy]

Very very underwhelming afternoon runs from gfs and ukmo 12z so far!!gone is that sunny warm high forecasted a few days ago!!we now have a slack trough over us instead and a continuation of the garbage we have endured over the last 10 days!!!if tropical downpours flash flooding and sunshine are your thing then this is heaven!!!especially looking at the ukmo 12z!

[Methuselah]

GFS12Z looks like taking an all too familiar route:     

Edited July 6, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Guest]

Absolutely terrible handling of situation from the models really, all fell into the same trap. Pressure seems to be subsiding through the weekend at the rate of couple of millibars for every 12hrs modelling. At  this rate the weather for Sunday will have a synoptic look to it which is similar to today. It really is turning into an extremely lengthy unsettled and wet spell for the south. 
 

Even this chart for the 15th gives little confidence, a negatively tilted high again, pressure will just collapse away from the north west 

 

Was really hoping we’d sneak a good day on Sunday but it seems highly unlikely now. 

[Methuselah]

A lovely Day 10 from the maestros at GFS:     

[damianslaw]

36 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A lovely Day 10 from the maestros at GFS:     

Blink and the trough will be back.

 I said yesterday caution is the word and typically in July the Atlantic often gains the upper hand..

Edited July 6, 2021 by damianslaw

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Blink and the trough will be back.

 I said yesterday caution is the word and typically in July the Atlantic often gains the upper hand..

And that’s exactly what happens in the evolution. 
 

Really could do with a strong hurricane ploughing through the central Atlantic busting up the current jet pattern and the ever stationary Azores high. Might be messy in the short term but would maybe at least break up a repeating cycle.

[Mapantz]

Several posts moved to the moans/banter thread.

Stick to model discussion. Thanks.

[northwestsnow]

38 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Several posts moved to the moans/banter thread.

Stick to model discussion. Thanks.

Hallelujah...

Getting very tiresome reading moaning moaning and more moaning on this thread.

EC still wanting to settle things down but its proving a real struggle to get these annoying lows to lift out.