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Model output discussion 9th April onwards

minus10

By minus10
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.png.8d375a3d29d66d5bbbf23d1406f81e5b.png

image.thumb.png.b483b25712897778f4820fc5afbd03ee.png

High pressure making a proper move at day 9/10 on the 6z. Doesn’t last too long, but get it here first then worry about that after!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

As you can see, the ECM 0z ensemble mean recovers significantly from its nadir early next week / this week?..   where it looks trough dominated and cooler on mon / tues but eventually turns into something warmer and more settled in the mid / longer term..especially further south?...broad brushstrokes rules apply with a mean but I think y’all know what I mean! ☀️ 
6C64A355-CFC5-4717-863E-3F79520F680F.thumb.gif.cef52574cbabb93be8827761743816d7.gif485F8387-324A-4D86-9B93-F4682412EDFA.thumb.gif.8f100036aa02d0249118afb689e9ef6c.gif7366639B-D181-4E13-BD3D-02032A73A543.thumb.gif.c26bb91b3c56865a256c7349ae823992.gif31DC94C9-8290-409E-B123-340E2AA4D11D.thumb.gif.d31eb5e96702cc64f09e0fc111832399.gif

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Author
Posted

Not the sort of chart you want to see in July.....

image.thumb.png.29ed951a5e2f6d1df49d578ca9ec055b.png

Now this is better .....

image.thumb.png.26c2d9c0a62d3f5fe70f24ffc91925b4.png

However it is the following week and as we all know a week is a long time in meteorology........

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Aye chaps, the GFS 06Z run ain't all that bad. 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I'd rather that HP didn't lose its identity, as it drifts ENE-wards . . . I guess we can't have it all!

Edited by Mapantz
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

To be sure..jeez now I sound Irish ☘️ .. ..actually my great grandmother was from Dublin ..bless her!..but what I’m trying too say is the GEFS 6z mean does gradually improve over time..so July May bring some further summery conditions beyond the trough ...fingers ☀️ 
0949BBBB-74EE-4EB4-865A-70282B8BFC7D.thumb.png.e719ed95b5789c1699b49fc6a7ebb000.pngB356EA93-F3E1-460A-B870-609F382B3CED.thumb.png.cbfdbfb3a12f6b7db01dad8506aa1df8.pngB33B8CC7-D5D9-41BC-948F-049A5B8E6932.thumb.png.2f4074acfc01866cc16ad505c34bb4ef.png0FE076EC-474F-428F-BB58-9CD6590C703F.thumb.png.26af7d916a53041184bed29366bec6ce.pngE5EAEAB5-504B-4F14-8A41-86E2878BB67A.thumb.png.5e62522fefd66272ea184a8d423dfa55.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
59 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

To be sure..jeez now I sound Irish ☘️ .. ..actually my great grandmother was from Dublin ..bless her!..but what I’m trying too say is the GEFS 6z mean does gradually improve over time..so July May bring some further summery conditions beyond the trough ...fingers ☀️ 
0949BBBB-74EE-4EB4-865A-70282B8BFC7D.thumb.png.e719ed95b5789c1699b49fc6a7ebb000.pngB356EA93-F3E1-460A-B870-609F382B3CED.thumb.png.cbfdbfb3a12f6b7db01dad8506aa1df8.pngB33B8CC7-D5D9-41BC-948F-049A5B8E6932.thumb.png.2f4074acfc01866cc16ad505c34bb4ef.png0FE076EC-474F-428F-BB58-9CD6590C703F.thumb.png.26af7d916a53041184bed29366bec6ce.pngE5EAEAB5-504B-4F14-8A41-86E2878BB67A.thumb.png.5e62522fefd66272ea184a8d423dfa55.png

 

"it's getting warm, it's getting warm, it's getting, finally getting warm"!

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Author
Posted
6 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

"it's getting warm, it's getting warm, it's getting, finally getting warm"!

"Its coming home, its coming home, its coming...high pressure's coming home".......

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, minus10 said:

"Its coming home, its coming home, its coming...high pressure's coming home".......

Even if footballs not coming home..I hope we win the euros obviously..I’m an Englishman I am !!! ...but, ...even if England don’t win?..looking at the GEFS 6z....summer may be coming home? ......fingers ...three lions on the shirt..etc etc....pfft...haven’t we said this before ? ..

450F90F7-7DAB-4297-8309-06DF5E64F495.thumb.png.d51a496df7188c4fa21df6fbafce0440.pngBD8B889F-6AA0-493F-B2B9-5C97610E467F.thumb.png.c22182cf251c3027dc3eca78aa1268f9.png29AD44C9-7A5C-4208-9431-395B475EACBB.thumb.png.90738d8a4a850fade2f0f64847a927b2.png75E31241-F12A-49E1-8B62-07A4D18234B2.thumb.png.df5d8c082f367573a4386fbdd2b6ac96.png04AD8C35-292B-45BB-A5CA-51FB1F66EEDE.thumb.png.6b397cd1c38e195dbc60fe16b41bcb50.png743601D2-C6E4-4651-9961-0BD3E81919A7.thumb.png.5de169d4df54330e444f0a25ff68189c.png721A38CF-058A-42B4-9BD9-11E0C9411C29.thumb.png.d48421f8fc3666443075f7c0a97bc778.pngEC832756-3C1D-4EF6-B727-4CAEDD1F2249.thumb.png.758ecaa0c9dc8ef2bbd3a697dfed4a5b.pngD5625A74-FE80-4BB1-9C37-4BD7D67B64F7.thumb.png.9931d804da733b435636bcf08685653c.png41494934-8700-428B-AFD1-3F4B161A7E24.thumb.png.2067f97ff741bbaf88e17a46fc738ef2.png6838B70B-9420-4722-B67E-2BBBBD6E6402.thumb.png.7adae675453cac55deb01b0779720bcd.pngCD2E7ED3-2393-4E85-9C02-75D17BBB6BF1.thumb.png.27bc5b34c504192c68a06aa6c2451037.png6D81A5B5-4C65-4495-A8D0-898DDC2C612E.thumb.png.48675bd9b123991d0cc6078598ae9976.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

"it's getting warm, it's getting warm, it's getting, finally getting warm"!

Yes, Tim, it is. Not that today's all that cold. The GEFS ensembles seem to agree with you:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I like the idea of a more settled REGIME!...not my words by the way..but the words of those who cannot be named!!!...  ! ..but seriously, I’ve been banging on about a more settled spell from towards mid July for some time now.. ..having closely followed the mean charts from the GEFS / ECM ...please don’t thank me..it hasn’t happened yet..but...anyhoo..fingers crossed! ..etc.. 

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Lincs Observation Aficionado

Lincs Observation

Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I like the idea of a more settled REGIME!...not my words by the way..but the words of those who cannot be named!!!...  ! ..but seriously, I’ve been banging on about a more settled spell from towards mid July for some time now.. ..having closely followed the mean charts from the GEFS / ECM ...please don’t thank me..it hasn’t happened yet..but...anyhoo..fingers crossed! ..etc.. 

it’s typical summer faye don’t you think, Wimbledon fortnight normally is rubbish once it’s all over it’s like the warm dry summer returns. Nature clearly don’t like tennis me thinks

LO

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
5 hours ago, minus10 said:

Not the sort of chart you want to see in July.....

image.thumb.png.29ed951a5e2f6d1df49d578ca9ec055b.png

Now this is better .....

image.thumb.png.26c2d9c0a62d3f5fe70f24ffc91925b4.png

However it is the following week and as we all know a week is a long time in meteorology........

 

Of course - but it's the week of this Summers Tour!!!! - fingers crossed

Swanage and Tenby.

Action packed

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Dare I say the Gem 12z operational turns into ...erm, erm.... ...a GEM! ☀️  

F2175A92-F042-4554-9796-147659556D7A.thumb.png.0a3144b547e7664a1454e8ac91f91d1a.png24DCA77E-64A2-4BCC-AD17-D42021B9461A.thumb.png.1d11c06d44631b95c067adc1c9562650.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

And the GFS 12Z is also heading in the right direction:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

High twenties, here we come!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Decent GFS this evening, though nothing special it does evolve a fairly settled looking spell and an improvement on the upcoming week for sure.

Could still end up being somewhat dull in the south/east at times on the 12z GFS though with winds coming from the NE, another case of being west is best in that type of set-up.

GEM moves towards something we've seen quite often with the last two weeks and a LP near the south and HP to the north, an evolution something like that wouldn't be at all surprising. Shift that mean pattern SW a bit and you start to get a very decent, though perhaps still somewhat unstable, type of set-up for stronger heat advection.

Edited by kold weather
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

EC looks decent to me ...

Hoping day 8 will see the Azores high flexing its muscles...

Day 7

image.thumb.png.cd85dec43882e80886747f38a598a33c.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted

Evening all

A few days since I last glanced at the charts but today's forecast here in downtown East London shows just how small changes can impact. 

Anyway, that's for another place.

12Z T+216 charts tonight from: GFS OP, GFS Control, ECM, JMA

image.thumb.png.e65b89ea08ac07fa4370fe74a2404745.pngimage.thumb.png.3248f4755997d45d3af37bc2fa1b7432.pngimage.thumb.png.2af314e0ec1b63c93361c460d0dd0e8b.pngimage.thumb.png.d1b28952eb333abbdfd695509bcc04e6.png

JMA on its own having the HP more extensive and further south than the other models though at T+264 there are signs of the European LP pushing north and north west.

GFS OP re-establishes the pattern into further FI of heights to the SW and NE and the British isles caught in the trough between. The large slack area of LP over most of Europe and North Africa reminds me of the synoptics of western North America or pre-monsoon India. 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks decent to me ...

Hoping day 8 will see the Azores high flexing its muscles...

Day 7

image.thumb.png.cd85dec43882e80886747f38a598a33c.png

To me not so good from this day to the end, looks like a NW/SE split again (sigh) best of dry weather over Cumbria/W Scotland

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Well here is day 5

image.thumb.gif.3f196f52d435e0719a140d5eac17f601.gif
 

So it is down to how that cold pool west of the U.K. behaves. If it sinks and remains west of the U.K. then there is a serious shot at a hot spell of weather. If it drifts east and potentially merges with the system east of the U.K. then we simply repeat the story of the last couple of weeks where the west/north is decent and the south and east are poor with either rain or persistent low cloud. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Finally!!! 

12z T240:

76CA6553-7FA9-4BF6-A3D8-E358782FF993.thumb.png.9d707059c3a1788d7622ebb4f0707b02.pngD4D7598B-38A1-4B51-9CB1-F0E06F03360E.thumb.png.21923b6d29e6a153e24b157d9abb0685.png

93C1BCE1-9714-4F32-B9AF-FF680B69EED4.thumb.gif.cd53527edd724d47b001c83fde5e74ec.gif31D5AC34-76EC-4ADB-8E75-263F76DD1047.thumb.gif.6f998b2cd9c4fe80c7a1957535f46957.gif

What we have here is consensus on an Azores ridge as expected given resurge in AMM.  The potential spanner in the works, in the medium term is the behaviour of the cut off low, very different in each of the above models.  Longer term, this will iron itself out, so I confidently predict it won’t rain (to any extent) on St Swithins Day, and we can look forward to a decent latter half of summer.  Well supported by the MO CP forecast too, could get hot too.  Just need to see the models converge and reinforce the current evolution, it is all looking good.  Proper summer should be here in time for that moment when we are all allowed to go indoors in pubs and queue at the bar

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Popular Post
Posted

Mean upper trough anchored west of iceland, moderate southwesterly upper flow over the UK, coupled with a weak but positive pressure anomaly...

Not bad, not so sure it supports the azores ridge over us, but not bad... plenty of useable summers weather in that.

814day.03.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Today's GEFS 12Z ensembles are looking good; the mean and operational are very close together!

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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JayAlmeida Aficionado

JayAlmeida

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted

Bizarre GEM chart that obviously won't verify.....but......it's rare that you see the 15 degree isotherm attacking from the east and not the south.

GEMOPEU12_240_2.png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Mean upper trough anchored west of iceland, moderate southwesterly upper flow over the UK, coupled with a weak but positive pressure anomaly...

Not bad, not so sure it supports the azores ridge over us, but not bad... plenty of useable summers weather in that.

814day.03.gif

Yup...allied to a Scandy ridge not looking too bad with temps around average, maybe a tad above, albeit not complete agreement

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6609600.thumb.png.4adc8079adee84dda05535170a72f91f.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6609600.thumb.png.fd8b297ff8d7eaafb9f8b8ae1c1a7d9f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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