Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Cambrian]

Haven’t had the chance to post since March due to wall to wall work, but I’ve been following the great contributions here whenever I can. 

A few hours of quite heavy rain for large parts of England and Wales late Monday into the early hours of Tuesday if the GFS is to be believed, before moving up into Scotland and losing some intensity, could bring some well needed rain for the middle of Wales believe it or not, the uplands can dry off very quickly with the long days.
 

    

I’ve been keeping an eye on this “now you see it now you don’t” intensity for a few days now, with charts even from yesterday taking all the heavy stuff up over Ireland, so it’ll be interesting to see the runs later on. 

[Frosty.]

I can’t promise Shangri-La!!...but I can say there are at least some good signs from the GEFS 12z longer term!    

Edited July 2, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, 38.7°C said:

Little sign of anything Summerlike in the latest GFS. I really dont see where our first 30C of the year will be coming from in this set up. Disgusting temperatures for the middle of July. 

Thats my birthday the famous St Swithuns day only seen rain twice on it before and both years it did feel like it rained for 40 days and nights tbh!

[Singularity]

The general direction of travel days 5-10 is looking about right now, but the road is still rather bumpy for my liking.

I can see how this is frustrating some people, as it wouldn't take much to get Azores ridge right in by next Friday, yet most runs are delaying it via a shallow trough that keeps being directed in the vicinity of the UK. I think the trouble is that as the zonal flow picks up, that low is unlikely to be able to just drop down to our southwest, so it will have to head east and cross us at some point.

In its wake, though, should be the most concerted advance of the Azores high we've seen in a long time.

As AAM continues to climb, the Azores High should continue ridging east repeatedly, tending toward northeast by the final third of the month.

This usually waxes and wanes a bit, so there will still be a chance of a cooler, rainy day or two in between ridges - but also a growing chance of hotter spells as ridges start to get to our east a bit. This doesn't necessarily equate to a dry sort of month, but it could prove an(other) very interesting one from a thunderstorms standpoint.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Latest ECM in the latter stages showing some serious heat building over Iberia and N Africa. Proper furnace heat that would equal records broken in NW Canada recently. If that spreads north and materialises, then who knows, stranger things could happen in this mysterious year. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Latest ECM in the latter stages showing some serious heat building over Iberia and N Africa. Proper furnace heat that would equal records broken in NW Canada recently. If that spreads north and materialises, then who knows, stranger things could happen in this mysterious year. 

Its time this part of the Northern Hemisphere had a serious heatwave affecting West Europe something prolonged and long lasting that will hit news headlines. Everywhere else in the world seems to get their fair share of heatwaves all except this climate

[JayAlmeida]

On 29/06/2021 at 11:40, Alderc said:

 

Some heat building for the second full week of July? Looks like fantasy chart (and probably is @240 hours out) but after all the doom and gloom I'll take it. More positive permutations on this evenings ECM. 

Edited July 2, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[Methuselah]

Nowt very exciting on tonight's GEFS temperature ensembles -- bog standard July fayre anyone?

    

[JayAlmeida]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nowt very exciting on tonight's GEFS temperature ensembles -- bog standard July fayre anyone?

    

Massive difference between the control and operational past day 10.

Edited July 2, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quick one from me as I'm in football Heaven..an improving picture from tonight's ECM mean,the trough looks being anchored more towards the NW later,which would implie improvements further South and perhaps a little more unsettled towards the NW with time.

Enjoy your Weeekend folks,and especially super Saturday..I will get the drinks in for you all before I go..

Edited July 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[minus10]

42 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Some heat building for the second full week of July? Looks like fantasy chart (and probably is @240 hours out) but after all the doom and gloom I'll take it. More positive permutations on this evenings ECM. 

Yes it wouldnt take much for some of that heat to be shunted our way if the high became cut off to the east, and the low to the west, however will be completely different next run. Shows though what could happen. All to play for , talking of which at least our boys wont have to contend with that sort of heat tomorrow evening in Rome. Probably a humid 25 degrees by the time they start playing....come on Gareth and the team....

[PiscesStar]

The GFS latest runs shows, to my eyes, an unsettled regime with us caught in a a troufht pattern. Any heat, fleeting with a showery regime woudk be my call. More persistent rainfall on Sunday for wider area... We will see guys xx

[Guest]

Feels like we are chasing our tails on looking for high pressure to ridge in. A day or so ago it looked good for the weekend of the 10/11th, yesterday it looked a remnant upper trough could be in our vicinity, this morning the evolution is even poorer as high pressure regresses a touch more we’re under another low, both GFS & GEM singing from this sheet. Very disappointing, yes it get much better after but no point looking at day 10-12 charts for improvements as they been wrong every single time for the last three weeks now. 

GFS 

GEM 

Being completely fair UKMO is absolutely the best output this morning. High pressure does get in by Friday however im not convinced it’ll last as again it looks prone to a trough dropping down from the north west! 
 

UKMO 

[northwestsnow]

EC looks fine to me  ..

No heatwave, but no washout either...

The signal for a warming up remains for mid July...

 

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Nowt very exciting on tonight's GEFS temperature ensembles -- bog standard July fayre anyone?

    

yep.... bog standard for july though isnt too bad, and i cant see anything too bad in the 8 - 14 day anomaly chart

[Frosty.]

Latest EC mean gradually improves from its low point (nadir) early next week to a somewhat higher point later with signs of more influence from the Azores high / ridge, at least across southern u k.

 

 

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Feels like we are chasing our tails on looking for high pressure to ridge in. A day or so ago it looked good for the weekend of the 10/11th, yesterday it looked a remnant upper trough could be in our vicinity, this morning the evolution is even poorer as high pressure regresses a touch more we’re under another low, both GFS & GEM singing from this sheet. Very disappointing, yes it get much better after but no point looking at day 10-12 charts for improvements as they been wrong every single time for the last three weeks now. 

GFS 

GEM 

Being completely fair UKMO is absolutely the best output this morning. High pressure does get in by Friday however im not convinced it’ll last as again it looks prone to a trough dropping down from the north west! 
 

UKMO 

 

Doesn’t look too bad on Saturday, probably a few showers but much better than midweek for sure!

[Methuselah]

I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but the latter stages of this morning's GFS 00Z are nae three bad:

    

    

    

But it does presage a spell of perfect growing conditions?

   

[minus10]

Once again intense heat being shown building into spain and southern France this morning on latter stages of ecm 0z...

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by minus10

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Once again intense heat being shown building into spain and southern France this morning on latter stages of ecm 0z...

 

Indeed m10, and it wouldn't take that much of an Atlantic disturbance to sweep it this way?

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters reaching mid July now. This is what I call a "who knows what" set of clusters. Perhaps slightly in favour of better weather over the south, but most ensembles clearly not promise a banishing of the Atlantic for a very long time 

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM clusters reaching mid July now. This is what I call a "who knows what" set of clusters. Perhaps slightly in favour of better weather over the south, but most ensembles clearly not promise a banishing of the Atlantic for a very long time 

 

That’s the finger in the air set of clusters…..basically anything possible.

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

yep.... bog standard for july though isnt too bad, and i cant see anything too bad in the 8 - 14 day anomaly chart

Trouble with the slack anomalies atm is they won't show a shallow trough which has positioning issues in the ensembles.

[mushymanrob]

13 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Trouble with the slack anomalies atm is they won't show a shallow trough which has positioning issues in the ensembles.

true.... but they wont show a weak ridge either that could bring some sunny warmth..

 

[Methuselah]

Well, the GFS 06Z could be very much worse: