Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[mushymanrob]

clearly theres a shallow trough over the UK, not a ridge..

Either the anomalies are wrong, the ops are wrong or i am...

 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

clearly theres a shallow trough over the UK, not a ridge..

Either the anomalies are wrong, the ops are wrong or i am...

 

The detail of this probably not showing up clearly on the broader anomaly picture Mushy. The ecm this morning has the upper trough disrupting resulting in a weak ridge for the end of the week but still a tad unsettled

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

clearly theres a shallow trough over the UK, not a ridge..

Either the anomalies are wrong, the ops are wrong or i am...

 

I think I'd call that a 'weakness within a High', Rob? It's not often we see what clearly is a trough, but with a central pressure of 1020mb. No wonder the anomalies are unsure of what to make of it?

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

clearly theres a shallow trough over the UK, not a ridge..

Either the anomalies are wrong, the ops are wrong or i am...

 

ECM never really gets the ridge in, surface conditions don’t really improve through the entire run! It’s not a good signal IMO.
 

Saturday the 10th 

Sunday the 11th

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

Sunshine and showers i think sums up the picture as we move forward ...

Temps probably feeling warm in the sun , not a fabulous outlook,but not a disaster either.

Probably drying out moreso towards the south and east as the flow trends SWly ?

Hope,rather than expectation is background factors help push the jet further north as we move through July.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

ECM never really gets the ridge in, surface conditions don’t really improve through the entire run! It’s not a good signal IMO.
 

Saturday the 10th 

Sunday the 11th

 

It’s not the best. But at least once the low clears away it’s sunshine and showers rather than a relentless washout. Still hopeful of a much better second half of July  

[mb018538]

Clusters also showing higher pressure getting ever closer in the 8-10 day range and beyond:

[Guest]

GFS 06Z following on this mornings ECM, pressure rises towards the end of the week however the upper trough never really lifts out so after Mon/Tues’s utter crap-fest it then looks like cool and showery Wed-Fri, even through the weekend there’s showers and cloud about but temps potentially back to normal by then. Looks like the first half of July will have no proper warmth at all.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Alderc

[Man With Beard]

Based on recent models, my views on where July is going are ... "ish". Good "ish" at times, but not a 1976, and plenty of potholes. High pressure often tries to get in, but cannot establish and so disturbances are close by. I'm sure there'll be warm days, like today, but I can't see where the 90F days are coming from just yet

[Speedbird]

33 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Based on recent models, my views on where July is going are ... "ish". Good "ish" at times, but not a 1976, and plenty of potholes. High pressure often tries to get in, but cannot establish and so disturbances are close by. I'm sure there'll be warm days, like today, but I can't see where the 90F days are coming from just yet

90F days ?

I'm struggling to see where the 80F days are right now . . .

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

90F days ?

I'm struggling to see where the 80F days are right now . . .

Even 70f days..

[mushymanrob]

Well heres a chart from July 2nd 2003..... looks a lot like the predicted chart for Tuesday. Of course 2003 went on to become a very warm/hot summer with the hottest daily temperature record that was only topped last year. 
 

[summer blizzard]

Of note thanks to Matt Hugo is the Euro AAM forecast which suggests that AAM will head positive again in the 10th-15th period.

Note that he also showed the GFS being much more agressive (and it's less statistically accurate) so view GFS FI and CFS (drawn from GFS data) AAM forecasts with suspicion.

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Of note thanks to Matt Hugo is the Euro AAM forecast which suggests that AAM will head positive again in the 10th-15th period.

Note that he also showed the GFS being much more agressive (and it's less statistically accurate) so view GFS FI and CFS (drawn from GFS data) AAM forecasts with suspicion.

May i ask, how long is it between the AAM going positive and its impact on our synoptic pattern?

[summer blizzard]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

May i ask, how long is it between the AAM going positive and its impact on our synoptic pattern?

No hard data (I'm not the one with the Euro subscription unfortunately) but based on the long range Euro convection forecast it looks like end of month so that would suggest a 20 day period (ish) of positive background signals.

Essentially strong trades and low AAM are indicative of a strong sub-tropical ridge and westerlies at the mid-lattitudes while the reverse is generally true for westerly wind bursts which amplify the jet stream at mid-lattitudes. The primary location of tropical convection can influence the extent of mean ridging and how much. (Early June saw +AAM but convection largely limited to the west Pacific - Azores ridge signal Vs 2018 when we saw tropical convection waves pass the entire Pacific - correlates more to a Scandi/Euro ridge signal at our location).

[northwestsnow]

Great Post SB , cheers.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Even 70f days..

Virtually every day here at the moment...

The air is certainly warm enough to easily support temps over 70F if we get enough sunshine next week.

Edited July 2, 2021 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Just before the 12z...Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean longer term, day 10 isn’t so terrible is it?..not had chance to post today, my dad is in a very bad way, things have taken a turn for the worse..doctor has called and prescribed new meds.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just before the 12z...Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean longer term, day 10 isn’t so terrible is it?..not had chance to post today, my dad is in a very bad way, things have taken a turn for the worse..doctor has called and prescribed new meds.  

Yes Karl too me going on the means it looks like things become settled towards next Weekend..im quite bemused to how its been stated on here,that they can't see where 80s or even 70sF is coming from! it's been over 70 here today and tbh its been on the warm side all week..it takes all but 24hrs to get serious heat into this country these days! As last year will testify!

It's unsettled in the shorter term but the longer term prognosis seems to be shaping up with a very positive Exeter update today regarding very warm and settled spells! I really can't see what there's to be that downbeat over! In the shorter term then yes,perhaps...but the longer term..NO!

Edit.. Chin up Karl your dad seems a fighter..we are in similar positions with our dad's for various reasons..and it ain't much fun as you're aware..godbless you both.

Edited July 2, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

No hard data (I'm not the one with the Euro subscription unfortunately) but based on the long range Euro convection forecast it looks like end of month so that would suggest a 20 day period (ish) of positive background signals.

Essentially strong trades and low AAM are indicative of a strong sub-tropical ridge and westerlies at the mid-lattitudes while the reverse is generally true for westerly wind bursts which amplify the jet stream at mid-lattitudes. The primary location of tropical convection can influence the extent of mean ridging and how much. (Early June saw +AAM but convection largely limited to the west Pacific - Azores ridge signal Vs 2018 when we saw tropical convection waves pass the entire Pacific - correlates more to a Scandi/Euro ridge signal at our location).

thanks, appreciate your response..

[Guest]

Meh 12Z’s, it may warm up and settle down in 8-10days time but I have very little confidence that the high will get in far enough to give a proper spell of summer weather. The high to the south west just looks focused on staying there and leaving us exposed to fronts toppling over the top. It’s easy to envisage high slipping a touch west and a trough ending up over us.

[Guest]

Mmm lovely

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Little sign of anything Summerlike in the latest GFS. I really dont see where our first 30C of the year will be coming from in this set up. Disgusting temperatures for the middle of July. 

[Methuselah]

Not looking exactly 'shades of '76' is it, chaps? But I've lived through much worse; I came through the summer of 1972 more or less unscathed!

    

    

    

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Little sign of anything Summerlike in the latest GFS. I really dont see where our first 30C of the year will be coming from in this set up. Disgusting temperatures for the middle of July. 

Think you've just about cherry picked the worst chart (t+300 hours as well!). Not necessarily a fair reflection of the run as a whole, but I agree that 30C anytime soon is looking unlikely.