Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

The ECM is so laughable , you gotta love that blob of green snot catapulting itself right across the Atlantic only for it to halt bang slap right over the UK next Tuesday and stay there for god knows how long. 

Garbage models and garbage weather!

[northwestsnow]

Wow some very downbeat posts in here this evening.

Let's see where the det sits in the suite,  it may well be we see a genuine Atlantic incursion, but there could be twists and turns yet.

BTW ,summer has been a decent 8/10 up here ,so far, very dry June thus far locally.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

I can live with cluster 1, but the green borders alone tell you what you need to know about the others, -NAO - high lat blocking in the wrong place.  Yes cluster 1 has 25 members, but I just get the impression that the signal for summer to resurface has been put on hold a bit longer…we will see…

[Frosty.]

Just looking at the longer term GEFS 12z mean, there are hints, that following a potential Atlantic spell next week?, the Azores high / ridge could start to wax again, ergo... ...start to build towards the u k with more chance of an anticyclonic spell in the run up to mid July?..for what it’s worth (not much..about 2 pence)...... ..that’s my opinion...but I’m just a PLEB..what do I know?  

 

[damianslaw]

Mmm I said the current shallow trough to the south of the UK is a major headache.. it looks like sitting in the N Sea and then acting like a magnet for the main parent Atlantic trough to move in across the UK.

Not very inspiring outlook medium term especially for those in the south wanting something drier warmer and sunnier. For those in the north a good few days of fine weather before the trough migrates it's way through.

June has seen a definate north south divide. Much drier in the north than the south. For the south one of two halves first half very warm and dry second half very wet and cool/ average. Quite an unusual state of affairs..

[Met.]

Looks like summer's coming. To France!

 

 

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Thundershine said:

Looks like summer's coming. To France!

 

 

GFS giving up the ghost then?  

Edited June 29, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[JayAlmeida]

Shao Kahn voice:

Ecm wins. Fatality 

[mb018538]

GFS finally comes in tail between legs and falls into line…..all models now showing a disturbed spell of weather through next week, and possibly beyond. Going to be a bit of a wait for anything notably settled now, perhaps out towards mid July. 

[Guest]

Well that the first third of July down the pan. Bet the temp anomalies end up looking like May. The entire northern hemisphere way above average apart from our pathetic little patch. 
 

GEM, GFS and UKMO all absolutely awful by day 5 or 6, I know it’s been better further north but summer turning out very poor just like it was always going to be given the travel restrictions. 
 

GFS Day 5

GFS Day 10

GFS Day 15

[Methuselah]

Everything looks kind of 'normal', for July, to me . . . To early in the proceedings for hyperventilation, methinks? 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Everything looks kind of 'normal', for July, to me . . . To early in the proceedings for hyperventilation, methinks? 

Seriously! 

[Petorious]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Everything looks kind of 'normal', for July, to me . . . To early in the proceedings for hyperventilation, methinks? 

Not normal at all, unless this is the new normal.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Petorious said:

Not normal at all, unless this is the new normal.

As the GEFS ensembles clearly show, the GFS 00Z operational run is far from representative of the run, as a whole -- it's a 'cold' outlier. We've been here before, and we'll be here again?

    

[Penrith Snow]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Everything looks kind of 'normal', for July, to me . . . To early in the proceedings for hyperventilation, methinks? 

Normal, really? Current output might have been normal in the post war cool summers of the 1950's but not in 2021 when we should be enjoying the long promised GW Mediterranean summers 

Edited June 29, 2021 by Penrith Snow

[draztik]

ECM would give the UK a rather warm back end, if it’s day 6-10 output can be believed. Caveats apply - esp as the other models incl UKMO disagree (notably at day  5/6)
 

day 9 /euro. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by draztik

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Normal, really? Current output might have been normal in the post war cool summers of the 1950's but not in 2021 when we should be enjoying the long promised GW Mediterranean summers 

I'm not even sure that the word 'should' should even be in the UK weather's lexicon?

[Man With Beard]

ECM this morning attempts a ridge from the Azores after D7 but it doesn't match up with most guidance from the past 24 hours, which is the first half of July will be fairly flat with regular unsettled intervals. The ECM therefore viewed with suspicion!

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM this morning attempts a ridge from the Azores after D7 but it doesn't match up with most guidance from the past 24 hours, which is the first half of July will be fairly flat with regular unsettled intervals. The ECM therefore viewed with suspicion!

I'm not buying that at all either. There are a small number of GFS ensembles that go warmer around that sort of time, but no strong signal.


 

[Guest]

Well ECM attempts to rescue the mornings output but given it’s terrible recent output it’s probably the most unlikely/unbelievable of this mornings charts 

[knocker]

Deleted

 

 

Edited June 29, 2021 by knocker

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well ECM attempts to rescue the mornings output but given it’s terrible recent output it’s probably the most unlikely/unbelievable of this mornings charts 

Only 5/51 ensemble members have this sort of setup, and the mean is much flatter too. Think we can chuck it safely in the bin.

[mb018538]

ECM 500hpa anomalies from yesterday show a more unsettled couple of weeks before week 3 (12th-19th July) looks more promising. Scandi heights still evident.

Strong blocking signal still overwhelming. MJO moving to more favourable phases  as we move through July:

Edited June 29, 2021 by mb018538

[Singularity]

On the other hand, the largest EPS cluster is only a little flatter with the ridge. So I think ECM is right to bring the Azores high into play, but takes it too far too fast.

Things are looking flatter than hoped for until at least a week into July, owing to AAM having to climb from a lower point than has been expected. Seems we’re not going to see this weeks low move quite far enough east to allow enough a ridge in between it and the Atlantic trough to entirely keep the latter at bay.

I’m still not seeing a UK trough setup as the favourite though - more of a changeable southwesterly or westerly regime via a trough to the west or northwest, most unsettled in the northwest. Not much cool air in the flow so it should tend to feel warm whenever the sun makes an appearance. 

[sheikhy]

And then the ecm 00z happened and rescued our summer!!!!!