Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Mike Poole]

Looks like ECM is following GFS at T216:

Happy about that!

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all,...how are you all doing?

not posted in a while but the latest from the ECM(so far)has a heat pump ready to pounce from the S/SW from day 9>>

and what a stunning chart from the gfs at day 16,..yes please,..that will land on the week i will be off work,...BRING IT ON

 

 

Edited June 27, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[northwestsnow]

The stalling Trough ...

Could promote a big Spanish plume for the UK...

 

[Djdazzle]

Finally, after days of dross, the ECM provides some promise!

[ChannelThunder]

ECM ends on basically a mirror image of last week's letdown of a plume, with an 'innocuous looking area of low pressure' (to quote Alex Deakin), drifting up from SW France.

Edited June 27, 2021 by Lance M
Got Alex's surname wrong...thought it didn't look right

[Mike Poole]

Worth taking a look at the NH view occasionally:

ECM T216:

Quite a sad face depicted there!  

But it does show how disorganised the weather is in the NH right now.  Well it is summer, I guess!  

Edited June 27, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

And we have yet another fine pair of GEFS temperature ensembles: never too hot and certainly never too cold? 

    

[Methuselah]

41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Worth taking a look at the NH view occasionally:

ECM T216:

Quite a sad face depicted there!  

But it does show how disorganised the weather is in the NH right now.  Well it is summer, I guess!  

Just make sure you don't try and pass that off as a genuine Pablo Picasso portrait of Angelina Jolie! 

[Singularity]

Agree with all but one aspect of Damian’s reply to me earlier; the exception being the lack of exceptional heat. With troughs quasi-stationary to the west an an unusually large heat reserve over North Africa (yes, even by their standards), I daresay the risk of dramatically high temperatures is on the high side.

Even in only brief hot spells, records can be threatened these days - like what brought  us the 2nd hottest July temp on record last summer.

[Frosty.]

That’s a really great day 10 from the ECM 12z operational!...not a bad day 9 either! ..but day 10...lovely jubbly!  

[stodge]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Agree with all but one aspect of Damian’s reply to me earlier; the exception being the lack of exceptional heat. With troughs quasi-stationary to the west an an unusually large heat reserve over North Africa (yes, even by their standards), I daresay the risk of dramatically high temperatures is on the high side.

Even in only brief hot spells, records can be threatened these days - like what brought  us the 2nd hottest July temp on record last summer.

I just don't see this "plume" some on here seem to be suggesting. The Azores HP ridges NE which is very welcome but that doesn't equate to an advection of hot air - more settled and warm conditions. As long as we keep the HP to the west or south west, the heat's not coming our way.

The important change further into FI is the northern blocking shifts further NE and that eases the heights over Scandinavia which in turn allows for the ridging across north-western Europe from the south-west. It's a typical midsummer pattern predicated on a moribund Atlantic which allows the ridge to extend without much resistance. We "may" see a new cell of HP develop close to the British Isles or we may not - there's no point having the trough out to the west if you've not got heights to the east as the re is no gradient and we get a damp SW'ly rather than a hot S'ly.

There's a hint of some decent conditions for the second week of July but it's a long way from a done deal.

[Singularity]

Well that’s the thing - highs close to the east are expected to crop up at times, aided by a sluggish polar jet across the Atlantic. ECM 12z is more along that line than GFS 12z. Both fall within the envelope of expectations but GFS maybe takes the Azores ridging a bit far, at the expense of distinct highs over E/NE Europe.

Of course, even with the anticipated broad scale setup we usually see the most intense heat plumes glance the SE at most - but the odd one does tend to find its way in.

Edited June 27, 2021 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

For sure, the ECM 12z op turns into a stunner!..and looking at the GEFS 12z longer term, there are signs / hints that the Azores high / ridge will be waxing! ...long way off but July could end up being another good month overall..as June!...if you’re seeking perfection, forget about it!...but it’s been a largely decent first third to this meteorological summer in my opinion, and I can’t see a reason why July can’t be a decent month too!  

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I would take these with a trough stalling out west just enough to pump some warmer air from the S/SW with possible storms,the trop pv well out of the way over the other side of the NH,...what's not to like...,this could turn out to be a decent summer after what was a long cold spring

EPS clusters up to day 10,det and control in cluster 3 but 5 would be an added bonus

come on guys cheer it on

Edited June 27, 2021 by Allseasons-si
added text

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I want to make a prediction about winter.  Just checked I’m not in the covid thread by accident!  

So we have increased sun activity this year compared to the last few, but it is still low:

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

WWW.SPACEWEATHER.COM

At the same time we have a sleeping Atlantic, forecast by long range models to continue to be sleeping…and also ECM T96 for example:

And an EQBO on our side, really, what’s not to like at this stage?   So, the prediction is a front loaded winter +,  it starts blocked and then we will see…

Meanwhile in the here and now, ECM rolling, looks more settled and sunny further north, but longer term I would suggest a return to favouring southern areas… 

 

Yes agree some signs from the models we may revert back to more a typical NW-SE divide with the atlantic stirring and the jet elongating on a more northerly path, hence more in the way of westerly/south westerly airstreams which would bring wetter conditions to the north and west and drier in the south.. unlike what we have now which is the complete opposite. Just subtle signs..

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Agree with all but one aspect of Damian’s reply to me earlier; the exception being the lack of exceptional heat. With troughs quasi-stationary to the west an an unusually large heat reserve over North Africa (yes, even by their standards), I daresay the risk of dramatically high temperatures is on the high side.

Even in only brief hot spells, records can be threatened these days - like what brought  us the 2nd hottest July temp on record last summer.

Yes there is a chance of some heat eventually.. but very much depends on the position of the atlantic trough.. any heat that does arrive I suspect may be more of the homegrown variety than a classic plume southerly, as the azores high ridges over and through the UK, no long drawn southerlies, just heat building in situ.. a better outcome than a plume which is usually associated with a quick thundery breakdown.

[ANYWEATHER]

An undulating jet stream , computer models hate this ,so no weather forecast in the short term or long term will be right....

[summer blizzard]

Models tonight do try amplify at day 8-10 however before we get excited the Atlantic does make further inroads.

 

 

[mb018538]

UKMO and GEM not interested in any high pressure amplification ahead of the low this morning:



GFS more amplified, warmer and settled with temps into the mid 20s:





 

[mb018538]

Also to note - most models wildly over exaggerated with the rainfall in my area. The SW has clearly taken a battering which was forecast, but a lot of forecasts for here were 50mm plus over the previous days....we've had a little overnight rain, with not too much more expected now:


 

[Methuselah]

Apart from a penchant for warm airmasses, everything looks a tad slack, on today's GFS 00Z. Though, with the pattern as it is, there's not much sign of any Spanish plumes, just yet: 

    

    

    

Pretty decent over all, I'd say? 

[mb018538]

ECM pretty poor into next week too...turning unsettled with heavy rain moving in:

[Paul_1978]

17 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes the 6z Gfs turns up the heat somewhat from next weekend onwards:

 

Also continuing risk of thundery outbreaks and pretty humid I should think. No need for central heating for a while if this on the money...

Those type of charts aren’t to be trusted at the 10-14 day range surely?

[Guest]

Pretty poor output this morning, summer rapidly turning into dull, borefest. ECM has done a complete flip in the space of 12hrs from borderline heatwave to low pressure dominated and the GFS ensembles couldn't be more average if they tried. Feels like its going to be tough work getting in any heat this summer which is pretty unbelievable given whats going on in the rest of the world currently.....

[mb018538]

None of the ECM clusters are looking overly settled at day 8-10