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Model output discussion 9th April onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool

At the rate it's moving the scandi high will be in the Arctic circle by next Wednesdays anomaly charts.

 

Northern blocking pattern confirmed. 

EDIT: Just having a laugh to cheer myself up after viewing todays model output.

610day_03.gif.dd6700ff8cf9fdcc2c9b1bd1b39b3dee.gif

Edited by JayAlmeida
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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You clearly haven't been around for long. 

index.thumb.png.523ca072fd21342138b1342fc45125ca.png

I think you miss the cut of my drift young man, I've been around a long time!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

For sure, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean is a mixed bag, there’s even something of an Atlantic breakthrough later, at least across the NW...but, at least the 850’s (uppers) look decent, for the most part, especially once that annoying shallow trough to the south fades away!...chin up guys.. it’s not as bad as May..unlike May there’s scope for something summery!!!  

3A2A6D8C-293F-46EF-AD84-7B96C2A03345.thumb.gif.793c7a186c55dd0893fb1e86e2fb664c.gif462C0A63-0CC8-4C28-B629-ED52C4685289.thumb.gif.6263d153ddafc0d0828b9abb1ef6cb07.gifC65E97B5-D58F-4F21-84D7-4BE5710FDA75.thumb.gif.0fd3cd65158cd8717adcbefc75a78d19.gifC47441D8-6EC2-4EA6-AAA1-990443747259.thumb.gif.1a9a9a6df8424fafd049845ff6ce8d22.gif8BBB77D5-8D3F-4666-A2E8-B9070E92D903.thumb.gif.4ee5cd1cf007af9c15bdb7c065ce9695.gif391C1EF8-139E-44DA-89E2-BA00F5025D5B.thumb.gif.021aeb3d39535554442ffa2712279946.gif


 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Don’t take a positive anomaly as being where the high is centred on those charts. That will be further south due to the base pattern that the anomaly projects into.

In any case, I don’t think the models have the North Atlantic jet pattern resolved yet. Only seeing hints of the expected behaviour - troughs disrupting west of the UK and allowing high pressure to remain influential from Scandinavia, possibly with reinforcements from the Azores at times.

GFS follows completely the wrong direction of travel later in its 12z run (& a few others lately). Probably (okay, hopefully...) just the negative AAM bias showing its hand.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
55 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

At the rate it's moving the scandi high will be in the Arctic circle by next Wednesdays anomaly charts.

 

Northern blocking pattern confirmed. 

EDIT: Just having a laugh to cheer myself up after viewing todays model output.

610day_03.gif.dd6700ff8cf9fdcc2c9b1bd1b39b3dee.gif

I am afraid I don't follow that. The anomalies are not physical entities on a 500mb chart, that is down to the contour lines to establish the troughs and highs. From them you have to deduce the surface analysis, perhaps with some help from other outputs. For a few days the ext anomalies have been indicating a weak negatively inclined upper trough underlying the Scandy ridge. This portends a quiet spell of weather, NW/SE split vis precipitation, with temps above average over western Europe

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5918400.thumb.png.7dc2dd6a97a4d2b90bcb61ade6b5170e.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5918400.thumb.png.9eab9ed866a9b47afdb5b5c34e145ff0.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b131275562c1ba7494f446db4289d7c4.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I am afraid I don't follow that. The anomalies are not physical entities on a 500mb chart, that is down to the contour lines to establish the the troughs and highs. From them you have to deduce the surface analysis, perhaps with some help from other outputs. For a few days the ext anomalies have been indicating a weak negatively inclined upper trough underlying the Scandy ridge. This portends a quiet spell of weather, NW/SE split vis precipitation, with temps above average over western Europe

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5918400.thumb.png.7dc2dd6a97a4d2b90bcb61ade6b5170e.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5918400.thumb.png.9eab9ed866a9b47afdb5b5c34e145ff0.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b131275562c1ba7494f446db4289d7c4.gif

Yeah it was a joke as stated underneath. Just trying to make light of these charts and how fickle they can be from day to day. Thanks for the reply though very insightful.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
50 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

For sure, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean is a mixed bag, there’s even something of an Atlantic breakthrough later, at least across the NW...but, at least the 850’s (uppers) look decent, for the most part, especially once that annoying shallow trough to the south fades away!...chin up guys.. it’s not as bad as May..unlike May there’s scope for something summery!!!  

3A2A6D8C-293F-46EF-AD84-7B96C2A03345.thumb.gif.793c7a186c55dd0893fb1e86e2fb664c.gif462C0A63-0CC8-4C28-B629-ED52C4685289.thumb.gif.6263d153ddafc0d0828b9abb1ef6cb07.gifC65E97B5-D58F-4F21-84D7-4BE5710FDA75.thumb.gif.0fd3cd65158cd8717adcbefc75a78d19.gifC47441D8-6EC2-4EA6-AAA1-990443747259.thumb.gif.1a9a9a6df8424fafd049845ff6ce8d22.gif8BBB77D5-8D3F-4666-A2E8-B9070E92D903.thumb.gif.4ee5cd1cf007af9c15bdb7c065ce9695.gif391C1EF8-139E-44DA-89E2-BA00F5025D5B.thumb.gif.021aeb3d39535554442ffa2712279946.gif


 

Something I would definitely take! Can't go wrong with a warm bit of weather

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM clusters T192-T240:

993B0370-1661-40D1-9DD0-BBB13406C140.thumb.png.ea6dbd2a90bbf2a2d6d085dddb2bc9b1.png

Headline comment, the red borders -Scandi block.

Consistent on all models right now for a high in Scandi to be a major driver of the weather patterns in our locale.  I’m not going to comment on the individual clusters because they all have the theme of high pressure now to the east and possibility of plumes developing to our west.  More runs needed to resolve this, but the main message is after next week settling down, hot, with the possibility of a plume of some sort…

I think it is all pointing one way in the 10 day+ period which is settled with occasional plumes.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Atlantic may not be doing much but consensus is achieved with an Atlantic victory at day 7.

image.thumb.png.0f8a26a58aa79d1232b9d27687c1f760.png

image.thumb.png.1c149e787ed19b08882b1d469bad15c6.png


image.thumb.png.fda6520c5509e4a3d9762e401ce81611.png

Pushes up some warmth ahead of the front so it could be a little thundery.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS pub run isn’t that bad, although it looks to me to be going off beam by T168:

65E5B1CD-4848-4990-A4B7-51FC8637554A.thumb.png.af6a180e0a37bdcbd8e085bc0dc8fb99.png0AA90A55-876F-4558-9954-BB8CC133246E.thumb.png.70d4a69cad464f0f1844be96a1c5cef2.png97DF242A-41DE-44BD-BBC5-01D5B85CF51E.thumb.png.f62d739eff15add3fe8ea152c0653726.pngDF6EAABF-FC51-42C0-8900-5C4625377394.thumb.png.763ebdf55c202171aa18856d0e95b282.png

I wouldn’t look too much beyond T120 at the moment on the op runs…too much uncertainty!

Edit, why I say that is because I am expecting a stronger high pressure signal into Scandi by T168.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

What settled spell?

image.thumb.png.cdc88fd41e60f20d0cf2891c66e77f8f.png

image.thumb.png.700ed9d9b9b8b5959f1aac2d2bb71394.png
 

Cyclonic outlook gaining traction on ecm, gem and ukmo this morning. Gfs goes more settled later, but does anyone really believe that?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.5de78ecf61d3d707285c26d442730f80.png

Oh dear. Worst chart of the summer so far?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Again - the complete opposite of the anomalies.

Hardly the complete opposite. This the anomaly 6-11 24 hours ago. This morning the ecm det run has merely adjusted the Atlantic trough further east.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5616000.thumb.png.a915052f29531d2ee5a26ee2e84f2370.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hardly the complete opposite. This the anomaly 6-11 24 hours ago. This morning the ecm det run has merely adjusted the Atlantic trough further east.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5616000.thumb.png.a915052f29531d2ee5a26ee2e84f2370.png

Some adjustment!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Some adjustment!

Well that tends to happen to the detail at day ten and of course the det run is not necessarily correct

ps2png-worker-commands-5bcd7565f6-pmbw9-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-RgIT50.thumb.png.1356e39f1a990abb4edec5bc9ec167a8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
27 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hardly the complete opposite. This the anomaly 6-11 24 hours ago. This morning the ecm det run has merely adjusted the Atlantic trough further east.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5616000.thumb.png.a915052f29531d2ee5a26ee2e84f2370.png

Yes, I don't think the anomalies have given permission for a nailed-on settled outlook in recent days. It's more like the UK is, once again, the boundary marker between settled and less settled and, as a consequence, we will need to wait nearer the time for the details.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool

The 00z runs mirror the 12z runs to a much worse extent (with one exception). The ECM and GEM are determined to start the atlantic breakthrough on Saturday. Thankfully the GFS still hasn't made its mind up yet. It keeps the LP at bay building a decent ridge into the extended range.

That ECM run takes the cake as LP cuts through the scandi high pushing half of it up to Greenland by +240. So that joke i made yesterday isn't actually that far off. There is still a lot of uncertainty for next weekend.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

GEMOPEU00_144_1.png

GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

Edited by JayAlmeida
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, as per usual, a quick wheech through the GFS 00Z reveals that it's nowhere near as catastrophic as some folks want to insist: 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And the GEFS temperature ensembles are nae bad!

t850Suffolk.png   t2mSuffolk.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Thankfully the ECM op was a bit extreme….but the general theme is a bit wobbly. The nice settled charts after the low clears away of a few days ago looking like a distant memory.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And, as per usual, a quick wheech through the GFS 00Z reveals that it's nowhere near as catastrophic as some folks want to insist: 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And the GEFS temperature ensembles are nae bad!

t850Suffolk.png   t2mSuffolk.png

 

That 5th image of the Azores stretching far past Scandinavia is model porn for me. That's the classic '76 kinda chart isn't it?!

Edited by thestixx
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Thankfully the ECM op was a bit extreme….but the general theme is a bit wobbly. The nice settled charts after the low clears away of a few days ago looking like a distant memory.

Yes the ecm mean isnt as bad as the op. Low further west. 

image.thumb.png.657a6dcced181b5543ea5bb5f9b706cd.png

Still to play for i think and hopefully although unsettled there still will be some sunny warm spells inbetween.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
31 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes the ecm mean isnt as bad as the op. Low further west. 

image.thumb.png.657a6dcced181b5543ea5bb5f9b706cd.png

Still to play for i think and hopefully although unsettled there still will be some sunny warm spells inbetween.. 

image.thumb.png.86a7709b5c9c125aeb43e1df078fb44e.png

The op run was part of that bottom cluster today, which is far more unsettled. The middle one looks like a winner as it builds a scandi high in ahead of the low.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Theres some strange comments regarding the Anomalies, and many doubting their accuracy..

Well the NOAA chart below was issued on the 19th, its the 6-10 day chart so at day 8, today, we are smack bang in the middle of that mean chart. The GFS chart on the right is the current 500mb chart.

Thats just about a complete match, with only a few niggles and minor differences...... Thats why some of us use these charts to guide us to the most likely predicted operational chart, because out of all the daily options and differing patterns, the NOAA are most likely to be nearer the solution.... and as such, then IMHO the current ECM is well off the mark.

 

anom accuracy.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

A very settled outlook hasn’t ever been on the cards really - rather intermittently fine, between more unstable but still warm spells, as high pressure influences unsteadily from the northeast or east. Transient Azores linkups provide the drier interludes.

Equally, a very unsettled one isn’t to be expected either - which makes the ECM 00z about as suspect as it gets!

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