Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 9th April onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
31 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Models had the 1020mb area out by day 8 this morning so can't be too excited. It still as yet looks like any pressure build is temporary.

Where is your evidence for this assertion? I can't see any real signs of the Atlantic firing up.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool

The GFS 12z a bit of the old horror show this evening as Alex DeLarge would say. GFS looking more like the ECM output as of late. Still feel like there's wiggle room between now and Mon/Tue when we will be in the more reliable timeframe. Just hope this chart is a distant memory by then

GFSOPEU12_168_1.png

GFSOPEU12_168_4.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
16 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Where is your evidence for this assertion? I can't see any real signs of the Atlantic firing up.

The Atlantic does not have to fire up to destroy any real chance of heat lovers weather. If pressure falls below 1010mb your likely to have fronts and showers in the mix.

You don't need an 07/11/12 repeat for summer to be mediocre at best.

Edited by summer blizzard
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

Quite a bit more influence from the Scandi HP on the 12z GEFS around or just after the points the solutions bifurcate (day 7 to 9 in this case)

image.thumb.png.2cb15f0b4917b0d8ed95cdfc5022f2cc.png

Whilst I do agree that it’s influence over us does look transient, the length of its stay is still very much unclear. The op jumping ship to the trough breakthrough cluster doesn’t help clear things up either. The GEM and, most likely, the UKMO also eventually turn unsettled. I’m not sure the EC will decide anything tonight and thus I’m sympathetic to the folks down in Exeter who will have to wrestle with the above uncertainty when putting together the 6-15 dayer.

 

Edited by Uncertainy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

image.thumb.png.fd88661289376f06ea171d14bbd52c6e.png
 

looking at that NH chart day 7, I’m taken by the lack of high slp, especially across Europe ……

if it gets steamy then it’s going to go big time bang! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Okidoki..I’m not gonna lie, the ECM 12z op shows a mixed outlook.. but at least the uppers (850’s) look decent for the most part! . could be looking at a generally warm..if not so settled outlook?  

 

Edited by Mapantz
Removed political comment
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Have to say the outlook on the operational looks increasingly poor. Any high pressure building at the end of next week looks like a weak affair that’s probably going to be swept away without much resistance, and we may have to wait longer for something more substantially settled appearing.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Okidoki..I’m not gonna lie, the ECM 12z op shows a mixed outlook.. but at least the uppers (850’s) look decent for the most part! . we could be looking at a generally warm..if not so settled outlook?  

 

That's a good point- it looks like being reasonably warm for the foreseeable future whatever happens.

Hard to see how any cool air is going to reach us.

Of course that doesn't guarantee it will be warm at the surface but it means if it's dry it's likely to be warm for most of us.

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
11 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Okidoki..I’m not gonna lie, the ECM 12z op shows a mixed outlook.. but at least the uppers (850’s) look decent for the most part!  we could be looking at a generally warm..if not so settled outlook?  

 

I have to agree! The ECM 12z downplays the breakdown and looks like a quick rebuild of HP from +240 hours. Can't believe I'm hanging my hopes on the ECM after that awful GFS12z run 

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Edited by Mapantz
Removed quoted comment
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Have to say the outlook on the operational looks increasingly poor. Any high pressure building at the end of next week looks like a weak affair that’s probably going to be swept away without much resistance, and we may have to wait longer for something more substantially settled appearing.

Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'.

Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'.

Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

I’m probably just whinging because it looks so bad here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'.

Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

That member lives in the SE. so it's poor, Wimbledon roof will be used definitely Mon to Thurs, just showers probably mind you

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That's a good point

Cheers, I do my best...sometimes, it’s necessary to say things that people don’t want to read.. ..but I don’t care, I’m happy today for reasons I’ve  already mentioned! ...anyway, I see no problem with uppers on the ECM 12z, they are fantastic compared to the minus something crap we had in May!..nuff said!  

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Models had the 1020mb area out by day 8 this morning so can't be too excited. It still as yet looks like any pressure build is temporary.

id agree with that after viewing the latest anomaly charts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Where is your evidence for this assertion? I can't see any real signs of the Atlantic firing up.

Not terribly, but the core of the high drifts further away and there more of an atlantic influence

610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Not terribly, but the core of the high drifts further away and there more of an atlantic influence

610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.

Don’t care, as long as it’s warm, that’s all that matters.. there’s no disguising it’s a mixed outlook but at least the uppers (850’s) look respectable..that’s all folks..for today..now I’m off too celebrate a certain resignation!! !    

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.

Aye the perils of medium-long range weather forecasting. Wonder if the EC and JMA will change their tunes over the coming days. Kinda renders them pointless if so. They would all have to put out a disclaimer like;

"This is our one month forecast, broken down into four weekly periods. Until we change our mind again in a few days."

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.

The high was always building to our North, the spoiler was/is the shortwave feature that arrived on Thursday and will ruin things in the South for most of the week.

So it is arriving, it will build to our near north but sadly now looks like drifting too far north............... but its only late June... and the outlook remains pretty good, as the UK is still under a positive pressure anomaly.

Hopefully the anomalies arent quite on the ball this time, but that wishful thinking.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All the Interesting stuff
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands, 161m ASL

Amazing temperature contrast at 850hpa level over Canada possible next week according to the ECM.

+25C at 120hrs 

0c 24hrs later!

 

Screenshot 2021-06-26 at 20.48.01.png

Screenshot 2021-06-26 at 20.48.13.png

Edited by phil b
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
42 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'.

Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

I'd agree, far from poor, the models have a certain je ne sais quoi to them, best model watching since I don't know when. We are also the right side of the solstice, smashing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

A reasonable day next door to Tornado Alley - not much sign of any heat in the models when I looked a few days back so let's have a look at tonight's meanderings:

850s at T+216 from ECM, GEM, JMA, GFS OP and GFS Control

image.thumb.png.4082d83736028020ce47ca73fb1fd754.pngimage.thumb.png.dc5b7a62095cfe3518bfa7d14ad72897.pngimage.thumb.png.e16bf3705715d130aa954098e57d2ee4.pngimage.thumb.png.726f7f5700869aed09888e3051738799.pngimage.thumb.png.228fb573792aace31121339e213aea69.png

Not a lot of change from the pattern earlier in the week - the moribund Atlantic isn't helping us at all. The jet is weak and there's nothing to establish the advection of hot air towards the British Isles and North-West Europe. GFS OP has a try but the "plume" misses and affects eastern France and presumably Germany. The 500HPA chart illustrates the near miss:

image.thumb.png.6b68b6ad1f4640d8248c3803d16fb677.png

The LP is too close and too far north and the hot air heads north east rather than north - in any case, the LP fills to the north and the residual space between the slack HP areas over the Azores and Scandinavia is filled by a new shallow trough.  As we can see, the absence of heights over Europe keeps the heat trapped to the south - the slack heights to the south west and north east are going nowhere because there's no energy to move them - the HP to the north east takes hot air from Russia into Scandinavia and helps draw the heat into eastern Europe leaving north west Europe on the cold side of the street. 

It gets, if anything worse, later as the Azores HP tries to re-establish but it's too far away to be influential and as the ridge tries to extend into France, the trough to the north west slides down across the British Isles keeping us cool and wet as we move toward mid-July. Far too early to throw in the beachtowel of course but we need some kind of pattern shift - we may need to see extra-tropical features (ex hurricanes) moving up from lower latitudes - these can give the pattern a nudge, particularly in terms of moving the Azores HP closer to the British Isles.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
58 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That's a good point- it looks like being reasonably warm for the foreseeable future whatever happens.

Hard to see how any cool air is going to reach us.

Of course that doesn't guarantee it will be warm at the surface but it means if it's dry it's likely to be warm for most of us.

The outlook is unmistakably poor for most of population this is 'prime time' next week not looking great rain most days in S UK, Friday and weekend looks reasonable, don't forget it is almost July our warmest month. I think since 2013 the average July high in London (Heathrow) is 25.5C down here it just doesn't get that cool. There is nothing satisfying about warm and cloudy, what I'm seeing the week after next is more of typical NW/SE split with more westerly mobility. Nowhere looking particularly good though I sense we might be waiting a while for first 30C this year. 

Edited by Daniel*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
3 minutes ago, ribster said:

I'd agree, far from poor, the models have a certain je ne sais quoi to them, best model watching since I don't know when. We are also the right side of the solstice, smashing!

You clearly haven't been around for long. 

index.thumb.png.523ca072fd21342138b1342fc45125ca.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...